Summary
The 1948 United States presidential election in Florida was held on November 2, 1948. Voters chose eight electors, or representatives to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.
 | |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
 County Results
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| |||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
Harry Truman won by 87,708 votes or 15.19 percentage points over his Republican opponent Thomas E. Dewey. In culturally Deep Southern North Florida, including the rural and socially conservative Panhandle, Truman was able to rely on having a strong economic program – which Thurmond entirely lacked – to hold off Thurmond's racial appeal.[1] In more cosmopolitan and liberal Central and South Florida – which had seen extensive settlement by Northerners since the war – his economic policies were a winner against Henry Wallace, who received only two percent of the state's vote but did an order of magnitude better in some Tampa precincts.[2]
Dewey nonetheless made dramatic gains upon previous Republican efforts in Florida. By carrying eleven counties, all of which were located in Central and South Florida, mostly in the southwest and on the east coast, he was only the fifth Republican to carry any Florida county at the presidential level since the poll tax' original implementation following the 1888 election.[3][a] The Dewey counties had in earlier Democratic primaries typically backed "conservative" candidates favoring limited or no economic regulation,[1] due to their lack of dependence on the traditionally "Southern" crops of cotton and tobacco, and would become the most consistently conservative and Republican counties in future presidential elections. Strom Thurmond, who had had to run as a third-party candidate under the "States' Rights" banner, nonetheless won over fifteen percent of the vote. Thurmond carried three counties but ran second in thirty-one others.
This is the last time, as of the 2020 presidential election[update], that Florida was won by a Democratic presidential candidate by double digits; not even Lyndon B. Johnson in his 1964 landslide election nor Jimmy Carter in 1976 managed to win the state by double digits, despite both men being Southern Democrats. Republicans have won Florida by double digits in six subsequent elections.
This election is also the last time Highlands County have ever voted for a Democratic presidential candidate.[4] Osceola County, which Truman won by two votes, would not vote Democratic again until 1996.[3] Seminole County would not vote Democratic again until 2020. As of 2023, this is the most recent time that Florida voted to the left of Delaware.
16% of white voters supported Thurmond.[5]
Results edit
| United States presidential election in Florida, 1948[6] | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Party | Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Electoral votes | |
| Democratic | Harry S. Truman (incumbent) | 281,988 | 48.82% | 8 | |
| Republican | Thomas E. Dewey | 194,280 | 33.63% | 0 | |
| States' Rights | J. Strom Thurmond | 89,755 | 15.54% | 0 | |
| Progressive | Henry A. Wallace | 11,620 | 2.01% | 0 | |
| Total | 577,643 | 100.00% | 8 | ||
| Voter turnout (Voting age) | 33.5%[7] | ||||
Results by county edit
| County | Harry S. Truman[8] Democratic |
Thomas Edmund Dewey[8] Republican |
James Strom Thurmond[9] States' Rights |
Henry Agard Wallace[10] Progressive |
Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Alachua | 3,745 | 36.78% | 2,403 | 23.60% | 3,937 | 38.67% | 97 | 0.95% | 10,182 |
| Baker | 849 | 72.19% | 112 | 9.52% | 213 | 18.11% | 2 | 0.17% | 1,176 |
| Bay | 5,168 | 70.68% | 928 | 12.69% | 1,193 | 16.32% | 23 | 0.31% | 7,312 |
| Bradford | 1,228 | 56.07% | 357 | 16.30% | 593 | 27.08% | 12 | 0.55% | 2,190 |
| Brevard | 2,348 | 42.20% | 2,315 | 41.61% | 857 | 15.40% | 44 | 0.79% | 5,564 |
| Broward | 7,096 | 36.35% | 9,933 | 50.88% | 2,300 | 11.78% | 192 | 0.98% | 19,521 |
| Calhoun | 1,404 | 78.26% | 128 | 7.13% | 258 | 14.38% | 4 | 0.22% | 1,794 |
| Charlotte | 520 | 41.01% | 559 | 44.09% | 172 | 13.56% | 17 | 1.34% | 1,268 |
| Citrus | 940 | 56.90% | 461 | 27.91% | 244 | 14.77% | 7 | 0.42% | 1,652 |
| Clay | 1,544 | 56.31% | 722 | 26.33% | 457 | 16.67% | 19 | 0.69% | 2,742 |
| Collier | 362 | 41.14% | 247 | 28.07% | 251 | 28.52% | 20 | 2.27% | 880 |
| Columbia | 1,797 | 53.93% | 553 | 16.60% | 978 | 29.35% | 4 | 0.12% | 3,332 |
| Dade | 59,681 | 53.52% | 41,301 | 37.04% | 7,136 | 6.40% | 3,394 | 3.04% | 111,512 |
| De Soto | 1,157 | 55.57% | 569 | 27.33% | 350 | 16.81% | 6 | 0.29% | 2,082 |
| Dixie | 862 | 67.82% | 111 | 8.73% | 295 | 23.21% | 3 | 0.24% | 1,271 |
| Duval | 28,567 | 47.85% | 15,379 | 25.76% | 14,428 | 24.17% | 1,321 | 2.21% | 59,695 |
| Escambia | 13,982 | 63.11% | 3,267 | 14.75% | 4,790 | 21.62% | 117 | 0.53% | 22,156 |
| Flagler | 153 | 23.61% | 154 | 23.77% | 330 | 50.93% | 11 | 1.70% | 648 |
| Franklin | 635 | 59.79% | 130 | 12.24% | 294 | 27.68% | 3 | 0.28% | 1,062 |
| Gadsden | 1,427 | 50.93% | 376 | 13.42% | 992 | 35.40% | 7 | 0.25% | 2,802 |
| Gilchrist | 884 | 83.32% | 46 | 4.34% | 131 | 12.35% | 0 | 0.00% | 1,061 |
| Glades | 274 | 49.37% | 150 | 27.03% | 127 | 22.88% | 4 | 0.72% | 555 |
| Gulf | 1,219 | 77.20% | 146 | 9.25% | 209 | 13.24% | 5 | 0.32% | 1,579 |
| Hamilton | 1,071 | 66.44% | 202 | 12.53% | 337 | 20.91% | 2 | 0.12% | 1,612 |
| Hardee | 1,871 | 65.49% | 689 | 24.12% | 281 | 9.84% | 16 | 0.56% | 2,857 |
| Hendry | 699 | 53.89% | 340 | 26.21% | 241 | 18.58% | 17 | 1.31% | 1,297 |
| Hernando | 825 | 49.34% | 441 | 26.38% | 372 | 22.25% | 34 | 2.03% | 1,672 |
| Highlands | 2,257 | 52.98% | 1,471 | 34.53% | 498 | 11.69% | 34 | 0.80% | 4,260 |
| Hillsborough | 18,854 | 45.67% | 13,529 | 32.77% | 5,094 | 12.34% | 3,809 | 9.23% | 41,286 |
| Holmes | 1,799 | 56.29% | 492 | 15.39% | 902 | 28.22% | 3 | 0.09% | 3,196 |
| Indian River | 1,055 | 43.10% | 1,134 | 46.32% | 246 | 10.05% | 13 | 0.53% | 2,448 |
| Jackson | 3,169 | 55.11% | 648 | 11.27% | 1,917 | 33.34% | 16 | 0.28% | 5,750 |
| Jefferson | 700 | 52.91% | 153 | 11.56% | 467 | 35.30% | 3 | 0.23% | 1,323 |
| Lafayette | 975 | 85.15% | 52 | 4.54% | 117 | 10.22% | 1 | 0.09% | 1,145 |
| Lake | 3,474 | 41.96% | 3,579 | 43.23% | 1,180 | 14.25% | 46 | 0.56% | 8,279 |
| Lee | 1,883 | 32.48% | 2,276 | 39.26% | 1,600 | 27.60% | 38 | 0.66% | 5,797 |
| Leon | 3,607 | 58.55% | 1,149 | 18.65% | 1,350 | 21.91% | 55 | 0.89% | 6,161 |
| Levy | 1,128 | 55.76% | 225 | 11.12% | 662 | 32.72% | 8 | 0.40% | 2,023 |
| Liberty | 737 | 86.81% | 30 | 3.53% | 81 | 9.54% | 1 | 0.12% | 849 |
| Madison | 1,189 | 51.70% | 207 | 9.00% | 898 | 39.04% | 6 | 0.26% | 2,300 |
| Manatee | 2,766 | 36.35% | 3,371 | 44.30% | 1,431 | 18.80% | 42 | 0.55% | 7,610 |
| Marion | 4,650 | 57.01% | 1,829 | 22.43% | 1,640 | 20.11% | 37 | 0.45% | 8,156 |
| Martin | 815 | 38.55% | 948 | 44.84% | 323 | 15.28% | 28 | 1.32% | 2,114 |
| Monroe | 3,759 | 83.48% | 548 | 12.17% | 122 | 2.71% | 74 | 1.64% | 4,503 |
| Nassau | 1,518 | 55.10% | 540 | 19.60% | 681 | 24.72% | 16 | 0.58% | 2,755 |
| Okaloosa | 2,519 | 62.86% | 486 | 12.13% | 992 | 24.76% | 10 | 0.25% | 4,007 |
| Okeechobee | 784 | 74.81% | 179 | 17.08% | 84 | 8.02% | 1 | 0.10% | 1,048 |
| Orange | 10,063 | 39.23% | 11,971 | 46.67% | 3,374 | 13.15% | 244 | 0.95% | 25,652 |
| Osceola | 1,577 | 44.65% | 1,575 | 44.59% | 357 | 10.11% | 23 | 0.65% | 3,532 |
| Palm Beach | 9,408 | 39.01% | 10,996 | 45.60% | 3,226 | 13.38% | 485 | 2.01% | 24,115 |
| Pasco | 2,375 | 48.66% | 1,839 | 37.68% | 628 | 12.87% | 39 | 0.80% | 4,881 |
| Pinellas | 15,724 | 35.32% | 24,900 | 55.92% | 3,400 | 7.64% | 500 | 1.12% | 44,524 |
| Polk | 12,034 | 52.57% | 7,692 | 33.60% | 2,992 | 13.07% | 174 | 0.76% | 22,892 |
| Putnam | 1,947 | 40.27% | 1,435 | 29.68% | 1,431 | 29.60% | 22 | 0.46% | 4,835 |
| St. Johns | 1,994 | 31.63% | 1,840 | 29.18% | 2,438 | 38.67% | 33 | 0.52% | 6,305 |
| St. Lucie | 1,704 | 38.38% | 1,689 | 38.04% | 1,027 | 23.13% | 20 | 0.45% | 4,440 |
| Santa Rosa | 2,316 | 65.72% | 549 | 15.58% | 639 | 18.13% | 20 | 0.57% | 3,524 |
| Sarasota | 2,302 | 32.31% | 3,559 | 49.95% | 1,213 | 17.02% | 51 | 0.72% | 7,125 |
| Seminole | 2,261 | 45.16% | 1,665 | 33.25% | 1,060 | 21.17% | 21 | 0.42% | 5,007 |
| Sumter | 1,411 | 65.57% | 251 | 11.66% | 486 | 22.58% | 4 | 0.19% | 2,152 |
| Suwannee | 3,033 | 71.62% | 398 | 9.40% | 786 | 18.56% | 18 | 0.43% | 4,235 |
| Taylor | 1,354 | 67.73% | 216 | 10.81% | 422 | 21.11% | 7 | 0.35% | 1,999 |
| Union | 594 | 67.96% | 55 | 6.29% | 225 | 25.74% | 0 | 0.00% | 874 |
| Volusia | 9,202 | 46.76% | 7,764 | 39.46% | 2,411 | 12.25% | 301 | 1.53% | 19,678 |
| Wakulla | 997 | 72.30% | 72 | 5.22% | 305 | 22.12% | 5 | 0.36% | 1,379 |
| Walton | 2,366 | 62.28% | 652 | 17.16% | 761 | 20.03% | 20 | 0.53% | 3,799 |
| Washington | 1,380 | 62.42% | 297 | 13.43% | 523 | 23.65% | 11 | 0.50% | 2,211 |
| Totals[11][b] | 281,988 | 48.82% | 194,280 | 33.63% | 89,755 | 15.54% | 11,620 | 2.01% | 577,643 |
Analysis edit
With the exception of the 1928 election, when fierce anti-Catholicism and Prohibitionism caused Herbert Hoover to defeat the wet Catholic Al Smith,[12] Florida since the end of the Reconstruction era had been a classic Southern one-party state dominated by the Democratic Party. Disfranchisement of African-Americans and many poor whites had virtually eliminated the Republican Party – only nine Republicans had ever been elected to the state legislature since 1890 – and Democratic primaries were the sole competitive elections.
Under the influence of Senator Claude Pepper, Florida had abolished the poll tax in 1937, leading to steady increases in voter turnout during the following several elections;[13] however, there was no marked increase in African-American voting and Democratic hegemony remained unchallenged: FDR did not lose a single county in the state during his four elections.[3]
However, on February 2, 1948, incumbent President Harry S. Truman, fearing that the anti-democratic practices and racial discrimination of the South would severely denigrate the United States' reputation in the Cold War,[14] launched the first civil rights bill since the end of Reconstruction, along with Executive Order 9981 to desegregate the military. Mississippi governor Fielding Wright had already sounded a call for revolt, which he took to the Southern Governors Conference at Wakulla Springs[15] to say that calls for civil rights legislation by national Democrats would not be tolerated in the South.
After Truman was renominated at the 1948 Democratic National Convention, Southern Democrats walked out and convened at Birmingham, Alabama on July 17, nominating South Carolina Governor James Strom Thurmond for president and Mississippi Governor Fielding L. Wright for vice president.[16]
Due to its smaller proportion of African Americans in its population than in other Southern states, Florida experienced less dissent from the national Democratic Party in response to these actions.[17] Florida Senator Claude Pepper argued that, unless Dwight D. Eisenhower was nominated instead, Truman was the only viable nominee, while Frank D. Upchurch, a long-time adversary of Pepper, recommended that the renomination of Truman be fought.[18] Eventually, those opposed to Truman won the primary fight, taking eleven and a half votes out of twenty and control of the state's delegation.
When Florida's Democrats designated their presidential electors, four were pledged against Truman and four to vote for him,[17] although only names of electors were listed.[19] However, after the "States' Rights" convention in July, Miami Herald publisher Reuben Clein filed a civil suit to disqualify the four original electors who planned to vote for Thurmond.[18][20] Pepper reversed his earlier pledge not to support Truman, and a special session of the state legislature provided separate lists for all candidates,[18] including the progressive former Vice President Henry A. Wallace. Pepper campaigned on Dewey's alleged support of big business over the "little man",[21] and Truman made a whistle-stop tour of the state in mid-October.[22]
Notes edit
- ^ William Howard Taft carried Calhoun County in 1908; Warren G. Harding in 1920 and Calvin Coolidge in 1924 each carried three counties in South Florida, and Herbert Hoover in 1928 carried the state and 41 of 67 counties.
- ^ These totals are the highest elector for each slate. Adding the county tables, which are averages for the electors on each slate, will produce a slightly smaller number.
References edit
- ^ a b Doherty, Herbert J. (junior); 'Liberal and Conservative Politics in Florida'; The Journal of Politics, vol. 14, no. 3 (August 1952), pp. 403-417
- ^ Menendez; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, p. 75
- ^ a b c Menendez, Albert J.; The Geography of Presidential Elections in the United States, 1868-2004, p. 164-165 ISBN 0786422173
- ^ Sullivan, Robert David; ‘How the Red and Blue Map Evolved Over the Past Century’; America Magazine in The National Catholic Review; June 29, 2016
- ^ Black & Black 1992, p. 147.
- ^ "1948 Presidential General Election Results – Florida".
- ^ Gans, Curtis and Mulling, Matthew; Voter Turnout in the United States, 1788-2009, p. 481 ISBN 9781604265958
- ^ a b "1948 Presidential Election Popular Vote". Géoelections. (xlsx file for €15)
- ^ "Popular Vote for Strom Thurmond". Géoelections. (.xlsx file for €15)
- ^ "Popular Vote for Henry Wallace". Géoelections. (.xlsx file for €15)
- ^ Florida Department of State, Division of Elections, (compiler); Official Vote – State of Florida General Election – 1948 Tabulated by Counties (Tallahassee, 1948)
- ^ Doherty, Herbert J. (junior); 'Florida and the Presidential Election of 1928'; The Florida Historical Quarterly, vol. 26, no. 2 (October 1947), pp. 174-186
- ^ Poll Taxes: Hearings Before the United States Senate Committee on the Judiciary, Subcommittee on S. 1280, Seventy-Seventh Congress, Second Session, Parts 1-2, p. 289
- ^ Frederickson, Kari A.; The Dixiecrat Revolt and the End of the Solid South, p. 76 ISBN 0807849103
- ^ Key, Valdimer Orlando; Southern Politics in State and Nation, p. 330 Alfred A. Knopf (1949)
- ^ Key; Southern Politics, p. 335
- ^ a b Key; Southern Politics, pp. 337-338
- ^ a b c Pleasant, Julian M (1998). "Claude Pepper, Strom Thurmond, and the 1948 Presidential Election in Florida". The Florida Historical Quarterly. 76 (4): 439–473. JSTOR 30149933. Retrieved March 1, 2024.
- ^ 'Floridians to Find It Hard to Vote Dixiecrat Ticket'; The Evening Independent, July 17, 1948, p. 1
- ^ Gainesville Sun, September 5, 1948; Tallahassee Daily Democrat, September 8, 1948
- ^ 'Pepper Charges Dewey Favours Big Business'; St. Petersburg Times, September 3, 1948, p. 1
- ^ Goldzwig, Steven R.; Truman's Whistle-stop Campaign, p. 89 ISBN 1603440062
Works cited edit
- Black, Earl; Black, Merle (1992). The Vital South: How Presidents Are Elected. Harvard University Press. ISBN 0674941306.