1998 Australian federal election

Summary

The 1998 Australian federal election was held to determine the members of the 39th Parliament of Australia. It was held on 3 October 1998. All 148 seats of the House of Representatives and 40 seats of the 76-seat Senate were up for election. The incumbent centre-right Liberal/National Coalition government led by Prime Minister John Howard of the Liberal Party and coalition partner Tim Fischer of the National Party defeated the centre-left Australian Labor Party opposition led by Opposition Leader Kim Beazley, despite losing the nationwide popular and two-party preferred vote. However, the Australian Labor Party gained seats from the previous election.

1998 Australian federal election

← 1996 3 October 1998 (1998-10-03)[a] 2001 →

All 148 seats in the House of Representatives
75 seats were needed for a majority in the House
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Registered12,154,050 Increase 3.52%
Turnout11,545,201 (94.99%)
(Decrease0.78 pp)
  First party Second party Third party
 
Leader John Howard Kim Beazley Pauline Hanson
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor One Nation
Leader since 30 January 1995 (1995-01-30) 19 March 1996 (1996-03-19)
Leader's seat Bennelong (NSW) Brand (WA) Oxley (QLD)
(lost Blair)
Last election 94 seats 49 seats
Seats before 94 49 1 seat
Seats won 80 67 0
Seat change Decrease 14 Increase 18 Decrease 1
First preference vote 4,388,809 4,454,306 936,621
Percentage 39.51% 40.10% 8.43%
Swing Decrease 7.73% Increase 1.34% New
TPP 49.02% 50.98%
TPP swing Decrease 4.61 Increase 4.61

Results by division for the House of Representatives, shaded by winning party's margin of victory.

Prime Minister before election

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Subsequent Prime Minister

John Howard
Liberal/National coalition

Entering parliament at this election were future Prime Ministers Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, future Liberal deputy leader and future Minister of Foreign Affairs Julie Bishop, future Deputy Prime Minister Wayne Swan and future Speaker Anna Burke.

Background edit

The election returned the Member of the House of Representatives for its 1998–2001 term and half of Australia's senators, who then served in the 1999–2002 Senate.

Despite winning almost 51 percent of the two-party-preferred vote and regaining much of what it had lost in its severe defeat of two years earlier, Labor fell short of forming government. The government was re-elected with 49.02% of the two-party-preferred vote, compared to 50.98% for the Australian Labor Party, the largest difference of six election results where the winner did not gain a two-party preferred majority, since 2PP results first estimated from 1937.

 
The Gallagher Index result was 11.33.

The election on 3 October 1998 was held six months earlier than required by the Constitution. Prime Minister John Howard made the announcement following the launch of the coalition's Goods and Services Tax (GST) policy launch and a five-week advertising campaign. The ensuing election was almost entirely dominated by the proposed 10% GST and proposed income tax cuts.

In reaction to One Nation's policies, the other significant parties all agreed to preference against One Nation. One Nation lost its lone house seat when founder and leader Pauline Hanson lost on preferences to Liberal candidate Cameron Thompson in the Queensland electorate of Blair. In Queensland, One Nation polled 14.83% of the Senate vote, sufficient to elect one senator without the need for preferences.[1] The seat initially went to Heather Hill, but she was subsequently disqualified under Section 44 of the Constitution, and replaced by Len Harris.

The election-eve Newspoll reported Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote.[2]

On election night of 3 October, the exit poll showed Labor on a 53 percent two-party-preferred vote. Labor made the single biggest gain by an Opposition party following an election defeat; the Coalition's majority was cut from 40 to 12. It was only when the first returns trickled in from Western Australia that the Coalition was assured of another term. The swing across all states would have normally been sufficient for a change of government, but the uneven nature of the swing left Kim Beazley eight seats short of becoming Prime Minister. The uneven nature of the swing saw Labor getting huge swings in seats that they held prior to the election but not enough in seats needed to gain government.[3]

The election for the division of Newcastle was deferred as the Democrats candidate died on 1 October, two days before the federal election. A supplementary election was held on 21 November, with Labor winning and holding the seat.[4][5]

Results edit

House of Representatives results edit

 
Government (80)
Coalition
  Liberal (64)
  National (16)

Opposition (67)
  Labor (67)

Crossbench (1)
  Independent (1)
House of Reps (IRV) – 1998–2001 – Turnout 94.99% (CV) — Informal 3.78%[6]
 
Party Votes % Swing Seats Change
  Labor 4,454,306 40.10 +1.34 67   18
    Liberal 3,764,707 33.89 −4.80 64   11
  National 588,088 5.29 −2.91 16   3
  Country Liberal 36,014 0.32 −0.03 0   1
Liberal/National Coalition 4,388,809 39.51 -7.74 80   14
  One Nation 936,621 8.43 *
  Democrats 569,875 5.13 −1.63
  Greens[b] 290,709 2.62 −0.30
  Independents[c] 195,180 1.76 −0.51 1   4
  Others 273,503 2.46
Total 11,109,063     148  
Two-party-preferred vote
  Liberal/National coalition 5,413,431 49.02 −4.61 80   14
  Labor 5,630,409 50.98 +4.61 67   18
Invalid/blank votes 436,138 3.78
Turnout 11,545,201 95.0
Registered voters 12,154,050
Source: Federal Elections 1998
Popular vote
Labor
40.10%
Liberal
33.89%
One Nation
8.43%
National
5.29%
Democrats
5.13%
Greens
2.14%
CLP
0.32%
Independents
1.76%
Other
2.94%
Two-party-preferred vote
Labor
50.98%
Coalition
49.02%
Parliament seats
Coalition
54.05%
Labor
45.27%
Independents
0.68%

Senate results edit

 
Government (35)
Coalition
  Liberal (31)
  National (3)
  CLP (1)

Opposition (29)
  Labor (29)

Crossbench (12)
  Democrats (9)
  Greens (1)
  One Nation (1)
  Independent (1)
Senate (STV GV) — 1999–2002—Turnout 95.34% (CV) — Informal 3.24%
 
Party Votes % Swing Seats
won
Seats Change
  Labor 4,182,963 37.31 +1.16 17 29  
    Liberal/National (Joint Ticket) 2,452,407 21.87 −2.62 5  
  Liberal 1,528,730 13.63 −2.61 11 31  
  National 208,536 1.86 −1.01 0 3   2
  Country Liberal 36,063 0.32 −0.05 1 1  
Liberal–National coalition 4,225,673 37.70 −6.27 17 35   2
  One Nation 1,007,439 8.99 * 1 1   1
  Democrats 947,940 8.45 −2.37 4 9   2
  Greens 305,058 2.72 −0.45 0 1   1
  Harradine Group 24,254 0.22 −0.08 1 1  
Others 507,221 4.5
Total 11,211,903     40 76
Invalid/blank votes 375,181 3.2
Turnout 11,584,909 95.3
Registered voters 12,154,050
Source: AEC Election 2001

House of Representatives preference flows edit

  • The Nationals had candidates in 13 seats where three-cornered-contests existed, with 88.89% of preferences favouring the Liberal Party.
  • One Nation contested 135 electorates with preferences slightly favouring the Liberal/National Coalition (53.66%)
  • The Democrats contested 144 electorates with preferences slightly favouring Labor (56.72%)
  • The Greens contested 120 electorates with preferences strongly favouring Labor (73.28%)

Seats changing hands edit

Seat Pre-1998 Swing Post-1998
Party Member Margin Margin Member Party
Bass, Tas   Liberal Warwick Smith 4.57 4.63 0.06 Michelle O'Byrne Labor  
Bendigo, Vic   Liberal Bruce Reid 0.88 4.35 3.47 Steve Gibbons Labor  
Bowman, Qld   Liberal Andrea West 0.89 4.18 3.29 Con Sciacca Labor  
Braddon, Tas   Liberal Chris Miles 5.69 10.02 4.33 Sid Sidebottom Labor  
Canning, WA   Liberal Ricky Johnston 1.64 5.16 3.52 Jane Gerick Labor  
Capricornia, Qld   National Paul Marek 3.46 8.75 5.29 Kirsten Livermore Labor  
Chisholm, Vic   Liberal Michael Wooldridge 2.60 4.67 2.07 Anna Burke Labor  
Cowan, WA   Liberal Richard Evans 4.06 7.62 3.56 Graham Edwards Labor  
Curtin, WA   Independent Allan Rocher 7.28 N/A [d] 13.28 Julie Bishop Liberal  
Dickson, Qld   Liberal Tony Smith[e] 3.90 4.02 0.12 Cheryl Kernot Labor  
Griffith, Qld   Liberal Graeme McDougall 1.50 3.93 2.43 Kevin Rudd Labor  
Hume, NSW   National John Sharp 4.35 3.71 8.06 Alby Schultz Liberal  
Kingston, SA   Liberal Susan Jeanes 2.01 2.48 0.47 David Cox Labor  
Kalgoorlie, WA   Independent Graeme Campbell 10.35 N/A [d] 2.10 Barry Haase Liberal  
Lilley, Qld   Liberal Elizabeth Grace 0.80 3.93 3.13 Wayne Swan Labor  
Lowe, NSW   Liberal Paul Zammit[f] 2.46 7.09 4.63 John Murphy Labor  
McMillan, Vic   Liberal Russell Broadbent 2.07 2.64 0.57 Christian Zahra Labor  
Moore, WA   Independent Paul Filing 13.28 N/A [d] 4.13 Mal Washer Liberal  
Northern Territory, NT   Country Liberal Nick Dondas 0.37 0.94 0.57 Warren Snowdon Labor  
Oxley, Qld   One Nation Pauline Hanson[g] 0.35 7.85 8.20 Bernie Ripoll Labor  
Paterson, NSW   Liberal Bob Baldwin 0.43 1.65 1.22 Bob Horne Labor  
Stirling, WA   Liberal Eoin Cameron 3.22 4.26 1.04 Jann McFarlane Labor  
Swan, WA   Liberal Don Randall 3.63 6.33 2.70 Kim Wilkie Labor  

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ The election in the seat of Newcastle was deferred to 21 November 1998.
  2. ^ Australian Greens includes Greens Western Australia.
  3. ^ Pauline Hanson has been counted as an independent for the 1996 election. She had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper.
  4. ^ a b c Allan Rocher, Graeme Campbell and Paul Filing were not in the final two candidates for their seats; the second figures are against Labor.
  5. ^ Tony Smith contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Labor.
  6. ^ Paul Zammit contested his seat as an independent. The figures shown are against Liberal.
  7. ^ At the 1996 election Pauline Hanson had been disendorsed as the Liberal candidate and ran as an independent, but she remained a Liberal on the ballot paper. She created the One Nation Party and contested the seat of Blair in this election after a redistribution, losing to Liberal Cameron Thompson. The figures shown are a two-party-preferred basis between Labor and Liberal.

References edit

  1. ^ Newman, G; Kopras, A (4 November 1996). "Federal Elections 1996" (PDF). Background Paper 6 1996-97. Parliamentary Research Service. ISSN 1037-2938. Retrieved 10 January 2022.
  2. ^ "Newspoll archive since 1987". Polling.newspoll.com.au.tmp.anchor.net.au. Archived from the original on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 30 July 2016.
  3. ^ Antony Green (4 February 2016). "How Many Seats Did John Howard Lose at the 1998 GST Election?". Australia: ABC News. Retrieved 4 October 2021.
  4. ^ "1998 House of Representatives: NSW". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 11 June 2022.
  5. ^ "Newcastle 1998 supplementary election". Australian Electoral Commission. 19 January 2011. Retrieved 17 January 2023.
  6. ^ "1998 House of Representatives". Psephos Adam Carr's Election Archive. Retrieved 10 June 2022.
  • Election 98, campaign and results coverage by the ABC
  • Australian Electoral Commission Results
  • University of WA Archived 18 January 2015 at the Wayback Machine election results in Australia since 1890
  • AEC 2PP vote
  • AustralianPolitics.com election details
  • Preference flows – ABC