Summary
A by-election was held for the South Australian House of Assembly seat of Frome on 17 January 2009.[1] This was triggered by the resignation of former Premier and state Liberal MHA Rob Kerin.[2] The seat had been retained by the Liberals at the 2006 state election on a 3.4 per cent margin, and at the 2002 state election on an 11.5 per cent margin.[3]
The writ for the by-election was issued on 28 November, with the rolls closing on 8 December. Candidate nominations closed 18 December at midday.
Independent candidate Geoff Brock ended up winning the seat from the Liberals in a very close contest.
Background edit
Kerin was first elected as the member for the new rural Port Pirie-based seat of Frome at the 1993 state election where the Liberals won government. From 1995 he held various ministries in the Brown and Olsen Liberal governments until he became Premier of South Australia in October 2001, before losing government to the Mike Rann-led Labor Party at the March 2002 state election. Kerin remained Liberal leader until after the 2006 state election when he resigned the leadership to make way for Iain Evans.
The state by-election was the first to be held since the 1994 Taylor by-election, when another former Premier, Lynn Arnold, retired from politics.[4]
Candidates edit
| 6 candidates in ballot paper order[5] | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Labor Party | John Rohde | Postal worker. | |
| Nationals SA | Neville Wilson | Deputy mayor of Port Pirie Regional Council. | |
| Liberal Party | Terry Boylan | Police officer. | |
| Greens | Joy O'Brien | Former librarian and Burnside councillor. | |
| One Nation | Peter Fitzpatrick | Small business contractor. | |
| Independent Your Voice | Geoff Brock | Mayor of Port Pirie Regional Council. | |
The Family First Party and the Australian Democrats, who ran candidates in the previous election, polling 5.2 percent and 2 percent respectively, did not nominate a candidate to contest the by-election.
Issues edit
Of concern to the electorate was the potential closure of the Nyrstar smelter in Port Pirie due to the federal government's emissions trading scheme known as the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme, however it won special exemption from the scheme on 17 December.[6]
Port Pirie Mayor and Independent candidate Geoff Brock was considered a possibility for winning the seat, with a strong local profile, and receiving preference recommendations in how-to-vote cards (HTVs) from Labor and the Nationals, whilst the Greens did not recommend preferences. Brock's own HTV recommended preferences to the Nationals, Labor, Liberal, Green, and One Nation, in that order.[7] Independent Senator Nick Xenophon also campaigned for Brock.[8][9][10]
Results edit
The by-election was closely contested, with the result being uncertain for over a week. Initial reports suggested a slight swing to the Liberals on the two-party preferred count against Labor, but with Independent candidate Geoff Brock not far behind Labor. By 21 January 2009, both the ABC's Antony Green and the State Electoral Office were indicating a two percent swing against the Liberals toward Labor, but not enough to lose the seat.[11][12][13] Liberal leader Martin Hamilton-Smith claimed victory on behalf of the party.[14][15][16]
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Terry Boylan | 7,576 | 39.24 | –8.86 | |
| Labor | John Rohde | 5,041 | 26.11 | –14.93 | |
| Independent Your Voice | Geoff Brock | 4,557 | 23.60 | +23.60 | |
| National | Neville Wilson | 1,267 | 6.56 | +6.56 | |
| Greens | Joy O'Brien | 734 | 3.80 | +0.06 | |
| One Nation | Peter Fitzpatrick | 134 | 0.69 | +0.69 | |
| Total formal votes | 19,309 | 97.12 | +0.21 | ||
| Informal votes | 573 | 2.88 | –0.21 | ||
| Turnout | 19,882 | 89.79 | –4.44 | ||
| Notional two-party-preferred count | |||||
| Liberal | Terry Boylan | 9,976 | 51.67 | –1.74 | |
| Labor | John Rohde | 9,333 | 48.33 | +1.74 | |
| Two-candidate-preferred result | |||||
| Independent Your Voice | Geoff Brock | 9,987 | 51.72 | +51.72 | |
| Liberal | Terry Boylan | 9,322 | 48.28 | –5.13 | |
| Independent gain from Liberal | Swing | N/A | |||
The result hinged on the performance of Brock against Labor in the competition for second place. Brock polled best in the Port Pirie area, and received enough eliminated candidate preferences to end up ahead of the Labor candidate by 30 votes.
| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberal | Terry Boylan | 8,215 | 42.54 | ||
| Independent Your Voice | Geoff Brock | 5,562 | 28.81 | ||
| Labor | John Rohde | 5,532 | 28.65 | ||
Brock received 80 percent of Labor's fifth count preferences to achieve a two-candidate preferred vote of 51.72 percent (a majority of 665 votes) against the Liberals, despite a slight improvement in the Liberal primary vote since the previous count.[19][20] This was announced by the Electoral Commissioner, Kay Mousley, at 8:30 pm local time on 24 January 2009, but without a formal declaration. The commissioner rejected a request for a recount by Boylan, with a formal request being lodged by the Liberals, which was also rejected, after which the Liberals ruled out a possibility of taking the result to the Court of Disputed Returns.[21][22] A formal declaration of the by-election outcome was made by the State Electoral Office on 29 January.[23] The by-election saw a rare two-party swing to an incumbent government, and was the first time an opposition had lost a seat at a by-election in South Australia.[24][25] The result in Frome at the 2010 state election saw Brock increase his primary vote by 14.1 percent to a total of 37.7 percent and his two-candidate vote by 6.5 percent to a total of 58.2 percent. Despite a statewide swing against Labor at the election, Labor again increased its two-party vote in Frome by 1.8 percent to a total of 50.1 percent, coincidentally by 30 votes.
See also edit
External links edit
- An Example of Non-Monotonicity and Opportunities for Tactical Voting at an Australian Election: Antony Green ABC
- 2009 Frome by-election: ECSA
- 2009 Frome by-election: Antony Green ABC
- William Bowe's "The Poll Bludger" 2009 Frome by-election pre-election discussion
- William Bowe's "The Poll Bludger" 2009 Frome by-election post-election discussion
References edit
- ^ "Libs upset by Frome poll date". ABC Online. 13 November 2008. Retrieved 1 February 2009.
- ^ "Kerin quits politics". Independent Weekly (Fairfax Media). 12 November 2008. Retrieved 1 February 2009.
- ^ Green, Antony (20 April 2006). "South Australian Election 2006 : Green Guide : Frome". ABC Online. Retrieved 1 February 2009.
- ^ Green, Antony (18 December 2008). "Frome by-election and South Australian Redistributions". ABC Online. Retrieved 1 February 2009.
- ^ a b "2009 Frome By-election: ABC Elections". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 2 February 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Smelter 'safe' - Premier: Fairfax 18/12/2008 Archived 31 December 2008 at the Wayback Machine
- ^ Green, Antony (17 January 2009). "ABC Antony Green's Frome by-election Results blog". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Walker, Jamie (14 January 2009). "Deals put former SA premier's seat on line: The Australian 14/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Independents unite to support Brock in bid for by-election glory: Flinders News 15/1/2009". Flindersranges.yourguide.com.au. 15 January 2009. Archived from the original on 15 July 2012. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Greens to run open ticket in Frome: The Independent 14/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Australian Associated Press. 14 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Frome by-election goes down to the wire". ABC Online. 18 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Green, Antony. "Frome By-election Results". ABC Online. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Emmerson, Russell; Pepper, Chris (18 January 2009). "Liberals confident they'll hold Outback seat of Frome". The Advertiser. Archived from the original on 20 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ "Liberals claim victory in Frome". Poll Bludger (Crikey). 21 January 2009. Archived from the original on 31 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009. This article reproduces the original Liberal press release, no longer available on the SA Liberal site.
- ^ Gout, Hendrik (30 January 2009). "Frome one loss to another: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Richardson, Tom (30 January 2009). "Frome, a lost moment for the Libs: Independent Weekly 30/1/2009". Independentweekly.com.au. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "2009 Frome by-election: ECSA". Archived from the original on 26 April 2014. Retrieved 25 April 2014.
- ^ "District of Frome – By-election 17 January 2009 Distribution of Preferences to Last 2 Candidates in Count" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 February 2009. Retrieved 23 November 2022.
- ^ Pepper, Chris (25 January 2009). "Shock Frome loss rocks SA Liberals". The Advertiser. Retrieved 25 January 2009.
- ^ Walker, Jamie (31 January 2009). "Peace plea as Nationals take revenge on Liberals at polling booth: The Australian 31/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 6 March 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "Recount refused as Brock takes Frome by-election". ABC Online. 25 January 2009. Retrieved 25 January 2009.[dead link]
- ^ "Electoral commissioner refuses challenge: The Advertiser 28/1/2009". News.com.au. 27 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ "New Frome MP to 'make politics more accessible': ABC 29/1/2009". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 29 January 2009. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Nason, David (26 January 2009). "Leader left with pumpkin: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 11 September 2012. Retrieved 28 July 2010.
- ^ Lower, Gavin; Nason, David (26 January 2009). "Libs demand recount after shock poll loss: The Australian 26/1/2009". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Archived from the original on 13 September 2012. Retrieved 28 July 2010.