2011 Hamburg state election

Summary

The 2011 Hamburg state election was held on 20 February 2011 to elect the members of the 20th Hamburg Parliament. The election was triggered by the collapse of the coalition government between the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and the Green Alternative List (GAL), which had governed the state since 2008.[1] The election was a landslide defeat for the CDU, which lost half its voteshare and seats. The margin of defeat for the incumbent Ahlhaus Senate is the largest in post-war German history and has not been met since. Much of this lost support flowed to the Social Democratic Party (SPD), which won 62 of the 121 seats in Parliament, forming a majority government led by Olaf Scholz.[2][3]

2011 Hamburg state election

← 2008 20 February 2011[1] 2015 →

All 121 seats in the Hamburg Parliament
61 seats needed for a majority
Turnout3,444,602 (57.3%)
Decrease 6.2%
  First party Second party Third party
  Olaf Scholz, August 2009 - by SPD-Schleswig-Holstein.jpg Christoph Ahlhaus.jpg Anja Hajduk IMG 6220 edit.jpg
Leader Olaf Scholz Christoph Ahlhaus Anja Hajduk
Party SPD CDU Green
Last election 45 seats, 34.1% 56 seats, 42.6% 12 seats, 9.6%
Seats won 62 28 14
Seat change Increase 17 Decrease 28 Increase 2
Popular vote 1,667,804 753,805 384,502
Percentage 48.4% 21.9% 11.2%
Swing Increase 14.3% Decrease 20.7% Increase 1.6%

  Fourth party Fifth party
  2011-06-23-Katja-Suding-06.jpg 2011-06-23-dora-heyenn-by-RalfR-06.jpg
Leader Katja Suding Dora Heyenn
Party FDP Left
Last election 0 seats, 4.8% 8 seats, 6.4%
Seats won 9 8
Seat change Increase 9 Steady 0
Popular vote 229,125 220,428
Percentage 6.7% 6.4%
Swing Increase 1.9% Steady 0.0%

Mayor before election

Christoph Ahlhaus
CDU

Elected Mayor

Olaf Scholz
SPD

BackgroundEdit

After the 2008 state election, the CDU formed a coalition government with the GAL. This was the first time such a government had been formed in Germany, as the Greens were seen as aligned with the SPD, typically in opposition to the CDU. Popular CDU mayor Ole von Beust was seen as a stabilising force for the government. After his retirement in August 2010 and the election of Christoph Ahlhaus as his successor, relations between the two parties became increasingly strained.[1][4][5] In November 2010, GAL left the government.[6] Ahlhaus formed a minority CDU Senate and the Parliament subsequently voted to dissolve itself and hold early elections.[7]

PartiesEdit

The table below lists parties represented in the 19th Hamburg Parliament.

Name Ideology Leader(s) 2008 result
Votes (%) Seats
CDU Christian Democratic Union of Germany
Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands
Christian democracy Christoph Ahlhaus 42.6%
56 / 121
SPD Social Democratic Party of Germany
Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands
Social democracy Olaf Scholz 34.1%
45 / 121
GAL Green Alternative List
Grün-Alternative-Liste Hamburg
Green politics Anja Hajduk 9.6%
12 / 121
Linke The Left
Die Linke
Democratic socialism Dora Heyenn 6.4%
8 / 121

Opinion pollingEdit

Polling firm Fieldwork date Sample
size
CDU SPD GAL Linke FDP Others Lead
2011 state election 20 Feb 2011 21.9 48.4 11.2 6.4 6.7 5.5 26.5
GMS 15–17 Feb 2011 1,002 25 43 15 6 5 6 18
Infratest dimap 8–10 Feb 2011 1,004 23.5 45 14 5.5 5 7 21.5
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 7–10 Feb 2011 1,686 23 46 14.5 6 5 5.5 23
Emnid 4–10 Feb 2011 1,002 24 45 15 6 5 5 21
Infratest dimap 28 Jan–2 Feb 2011 1,000 25 46 14 6 5 4 21
Trend Research Hamburg 26–31 Jan 2011 627 25 45 16 6 4 4 20
Infratest dimap 7–11 Jan 2011 1,000 26 43 17 5 4 5 17
Trend Research Hamburg 10–14 Dec 2010 648 24 45 16 8 3 4 21
Infratest dimap 10–12 Dec 2010 1,000 22 43 19 7 4 5 21
Trend Research Hamburg 2–7 Dec 2010 678 22 45 17 7 3 6 23
Trend Research Hamburg 29 Nov–2 Dec 2010 653 24 44 17 7 4 5 20
Psephos 29 Nov–1 Dec 2010 1,002 28 45 14 6 3 4 17
Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 29–30 Nov 2010 1,006 22 41 21 7 4 5 19
Psephos 6–10 Nov 2010 1,004 35 40 12 6 4 3 5
Trend Research Hamburg 15–19 Oct 2010 612 25 35 17 11 4 8 10
Psephos 19–20 Jul 2010 1,005 35 41 10 6 4 4 6
Psephos 29 Jun–2 Jul 2010 1,007 36 39 11 6 5 3 3
Psephos 19–23 Apr 2010 1,004 34 37 10 8 8 ? 3
Infratest dimap 17–21 Feb 2009 1,000 31 31 16 10 7 5 Tie
Psephos December 2009 1,001 38 34 11 8 6 3 4
Psephos 26–30 Nov 2009 1,004 36 33 13 8 8 2 3
Infratest dimap 19–22 Feb 2009 1,000 36 33 12 8 9 2 3
Psephos 22–27 Nov 2008 1,003 44 31 11 6 5 3 13
Psephos 29 April–5 May 2008 1,004 43 34 10 7 4.5 1.5 9
2008 state election 24 Feb 2008 42.6 34.1 9.6 6.4 4.8 2.5 8.5

Election resultEdit

Summary of the 20 February 2011 election results for the Hamburg Parliament
Party Votes % +/- Seats +/- Seats %
Social Democratic Party (SPD) 1,667,804 48.4  14.3 62  17 51.2
Christian Democratic Union (CDU) 753,805 21.9  20.7 28  28 23.1
Green Alternative List (GAL) 384,502 11.2  1.6 14  2 11.6
Free Democratic Party (FDP) 229,125 6.7  1.9 9  9 7.4
The Left (Linke) 220,428 6.4  0.0 8  0 6.6
Pirate Party Germany (Piraten) 73,126 2.1  1.9 0 ±0 0
Others 115,812 3.4 0 ±0 0
Total 3,444,602 100.0 121 ±0
Voter turnout 57.3  6.2
Popular Vote
SPD
48.42%
CDU
21.88%
GAL
11.16%
FDP
6.65%
DIE LINKE
6.40%
PIRATEN
2.12%
Other
3.36%
Bürgerschaft seats
SPD
51.24%
CDU
23.14%
GAL
11.57%
FDP
7.44%
DIE LINKE
6.61%

See alsoEdit

ReferencesEdit

  1. ^ a b c "Hamburg vote set for February after coalition collapses". The Local. 29 November 2010. Retrieved 29 November 2010.
  2. ^ "Merkel's party hammered in state elections". Deutsche Welle. 20 February 2011. Retrieved 20 February 2011.
  3. ^ Pidd, Helen (20 February 2011). "Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats suffer heavy Hamburg defeat". The Guardian. Retrieved 3 April 2011.
  4. ^ "Germany's only CDU-Green coalition falls". The Local. 28 November 2010. Retrieved 29 November 2010.
  5. ^ Knight, Dennis (February 18, 2011). "Trend-Setting Loss Would Spell Trouble for Merkel". Spiegel Online. Retrieved February 18, 2011.
  6. ^ "Veit Medick: 'Union schäumt, SPD träumt. Koalitionsbruch in Hamburg.'" Der Spiegel, 28 November 2010
  7. ^ "Greens in Hamburg end coalition with CDU". Deutsche Welle. 29 November 2010. Retrieved 28 November 2010.