2013 TV135

Summary

2013 TV135
Discovery[1][Note 1]
Discovered byGennadiy Borisov (L51)
Discovery date12 October 2013
Designations
2013 TV135
Orbital characteristics[2]
Epoch 13 January 2016 (JD 2457400.5)
Uncertainty parameter 4
Observation arc108 days
Aphelion3.8684 AU (578.70 Gm) (Q)
Perihelion0.98712 AU (147.671 Gm) (q)
2.4278 AU (363.19 Gm) (a)
Eccentricity0.59340 (e)
3.78 yr (1381.7 d)
219.63° (M)
0° 15m 37.98s / day (n)
Inclination6.7499° (i)
333.42° (Ω)
23.707° (ω)
Earth MOID0.00474236 AU (709,447 km)
Jupiter MOID1.6039 AU (239.94 Gm)
Physical characteristics
Dimensions~450 meters (1,480 ft)[3]
Mass1.2×1011 kg (assumed)[3]
19.5[2]

2013 TV135 is an Apollo near-Earth asteroid estimated to have a diameter of 450 meters (1,480 ft).[3] On 16 September 2013, it passed about 0.0448 AU (6,700,000 km; 4,160,000 mi) from Earth.[2] On 20 September 2013, it came to perihelion (closest approach to the Sun).[2] The asteroid was discovered on 12 October 2013 by Ukrainian amateur astronomer Gennadiy Borisov with a custom 0.2-meter (7.9 in) telescope using images dating back to 8 October 2013.[1][Note 1] It was rated level 1 on the Torino Scale from 16 October 2013 until JPL solution 26 on 3 November 2013. It was removed from the JPL Sentry Risk Table on 8 November 2013 using JPL solution 32 with an observation arc of 27 days.[4]

Past Earth-impact estimates

On 16 October 2013, near-Earth asteroid 2013 TV135 (with a short observation arc of 7 days) was listed on the JPL Sentry Risk Table with 1 in 63,000 chance of impacting Earth on 26 August 2032.[5][6] This gave the asteroid a Torino Scale rating of 1.[6] The peak estimated threat from the asteroid occurred 19–20 October 2013 when Leonid Elenin and NEODyS estimated the odds of impact to be 0.03% (1 in 3,800).[7] On 31 October 2013, NEODyS estimated the odds of impact to be 1 in 4,330[8] and the Sentry Risk Table estimated the odds of impact to be 1 in 6,250.[9] On 7 November 2013, with a short observation arc of 25 days, the Sentry Risk Table estimated it had about a 1 in 169,492,000 chance of an Earth impact on 26 August 2032.[3] It was removed from the JPL Sentry Risk Table on 8 November 2013 using JPL solution 32 with an observation arc of 27 days.[4]

As of February 10, 2014, the NEODyS nominal best-fit orbit shows that 2013 TV135 will be 0.76 AU (114,000,000 km; 71,000,000 mi) from Earth on 26 August 2032.[10]

Orbit

ORBITA 2013 TV135.jpg

With an orbital inclination of only 6.7 degrees and perihelion 0.99 AU from the Sun,[2] the point of perihelion is controlled by close approaches to Earth. With a short observation arc of 108 days, it has an orbit with an Uncertainty of 4.[2] Given the relatively large size of the asteroid, astronomers were able to refine the orbit of this asteroid over several months.

Impact effects

An Earth impact would have the kinetic energy of 3,200 megatons of TNT,[3] approximately 60 times the energy of Russia's 50 Mt Tsar Bomba. This would also be equivalent to 16 times the 1883 eruption of Krakatoa which was 200 Mt and had a Volcanic Explosivity Index of 6.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ a b The MPC circular lists Crimean Astrophysical Observatory (code 095) as the discovery site of the asteroid because Borisov had not registered his observatory MARGO (code L51) until 17 November 2013, which is a month after the discovery.

References

  1. ^ a b "MPEC 2013-U03 : 2013 TV135". Minor Planet Electronic Circular. Minor Planet Center. Retrieved 16 October 2013.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g "JPL Small-Body Database Browser: (2013 TV135)" (last observation: 2014-01-28; arc: 108 days; uncertainty: 4). Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Retrieved 4 April 2016.
  3. ^ a b c d e "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2013 TV135 (Nov 7 arc=25 days)". ArchiveToday T0O7R (JPL). 7 November 2013. Cite journal requires |journal= (help) (5.9e-09 = 1 in 169,492,000 chance)
  4. ^ a b "Date/Time Removed". NASA/JPL Near-Earth Object Program Office. Archived from the original on 2 June 2002. Retrieved 8 November 2013.
  5. ^ "Asteroid 2013 TV135 - A Reality Check". Near Earth Object Program. JPL. Archived from the original on 19 October 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2013.
  6. ^ a b "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2013 TV135 (Oct 16 arc=7 days)" (2013-10-17 computed on Oct 16, 2013). Wayback Machine: JPL. Archived from the original on 17 October 2013. Retrieved 2 November 2013. (1.6e-05 = 1 in 63,000 chance)
  7. ^ "Probability collision of 2013 TV135 with Earth is very low, but still remains". Leonid Elenin. SpaceObs.org. 19 October 2013. Retrieved 21 October 2013.
  8. ^ "NEODyS 2013 TV135 Impactor Table (Oct 31)". ArchiveToday bR4Qq (NEODyS-2). 31 October 2013. Cite journal requires |journal= (help) (2.31e-4 = 1 in 4,330 chance)
  9. ^ "Earth Impact Risk Summary: 2013 TV135 (Oct 31 arc=22 days)". ArchiveToday pI5fL (JPL). 31 October 2013. Cite journal requires |journal= (help) (1.6e-04 = 1 in 6,250 chance)
  10. ^ "2013TV135 Ephemerides for 26 August 2032". NEODyS (Near Earth Objects – Dynamic Site). Retrieved 10 February 2014.

External links

  • 2013 TV135 Orbit at the Minor Planet Center
  • 2013 TV135 Impact Risk at JPL / 2013TV135 Impactor Table at NEODyS
  • WayBack Machine entry for 31 October 2013 showing a 1 in 22,000 chance of impact on 2032-08-26 with a 21-day observation arc
  • Los Angeles Times : Ukrainian astronomers say asteroid might collide with Earth -- in 2032
  • Minor Planet Center : MPEC 2013-U03 : 2013 TV135
  • Space Fellowship : 400-Meter-Wide Asteroid Could Hit Earth in 2032
  • No, the Earth (Almost Certainly) Won’t Get Hit by an Asteroid in 2032 (Phil Plait)
  • Asteroid 2013 TV135: doomsday again (yawn) (Stuart Clark, 18 October 2013)
  • Big asteroid buzzes past Earth and will again in 19 years (CNN, 18 October 2013)
  • NASA: Less Than 1% Chance That Asteroid 2013 TV135 Will Hit Earth In 2032 (Elizabeth Howell Universe Today, 18 October 2013)
  • Why Is the Chance of an Asteroid Impact in 2032 Going Up? (Phil Plait)
  • 2013 TV135 at NeoDyS-2, Near Earth Objects—Dynamic Site
    • Ephemeris · Obs prediction · Orbital info · MOID · Proper elements · Obs info · Close · Physical info · NEOCC
  • 2013 TV135 at ESA–space situational awareness
    • Ephemerides · Observations · Orbit · Physical Properties · Summary
  • 2013 TV135 at the JPL Small-Body Database
    • Close approach · Discovery · Ephemeris · Orbit diagram · Orbital elements · Physical parameters