United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

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  Pat Toomey, Official Portrait, 112th Congress.jpg Kathleen McGinty (2015).jpg
Nominee Pat Toomey Katie McGinty
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 2,951,702 2,865,012
Percentage 48.8% 47.3%

Pennsylvania Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results

Toomey:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%

McGinty:      40–50%      50–60%      80–90%

U.S. Senator before election

Pat Toomey
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Pat Toomey
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford.[1][2]

Background

Five-term Senator Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, running for re-election in 2010 as such. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Specter later died in 2012.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority.[3][4][5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She then went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003.[6]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

Endorsements

Pat Toomey
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Mayors
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Pat Toomey 1,342,941 100.00%
Total votes 1,342,941 100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

Declined

Endorsements

John Fetterman
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Katie McGinty
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Joe Sestak
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Debates

A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh.[126]

A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, in Harrisburg.[127]

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Joe
Vodvarka
John
Fetterman
Katie
McGinty
Joe
Sestak
Other Undecided
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015 298 ± ? 13% 16% 5% 66%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 2015 1,012 ± 3.1% 14% 22% 29% 35%
Harper Polling January 22–23, 2016 640 ± 3.8% 11% 28% 33% 28%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016 662 ± 3.6% 4% 15% 17% 33% 35%
Franklin & Marshall College March 14–20, 2016 408 ± 4.7% 7% 14% 31% 2% 46%
Harper Polling April 3–4, 2016 603 ± 4.0% 9% 31% 41% 19%
Franklin & Marshall College April 11–18, 2016 510 ± 5.3% 8% 27% 38% 2% 25%
Monmouth University April 17–19, 2016 302 ± 5.6% 4% 39% 39% 18%
Harper Polling April 21–23, 2016 641 ± 3.9% 3% 15% 39% 33% 11%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy April 24–25, 2016 942 ± 3.2% 14% 39% 34% 13%

Results

2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results
  McGinty — 50–60%
  McGinty — 40–50%
  McGinty — <40%
  Sestak — <40%
  Sestak — 40–50%
  Sestak — 60–70%
  Fetterman — 40–50%
2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results[27]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Katie McGinty 669,774 42.50%
Democratic Joe Sestak 513,221 32.57%
Democratic John Fetterman 307,090 19.49%
Democratic Joseph Vodvarka 85,837 5.45%
Total votes 1,575,922 100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Dates Location Toomey McGinty Link
October 17, 2016 Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN
October 24, 2016 Philadelphia, Pennsylvania Participant Participant Full debate - C-SPAN

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[129] Tossup September 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball[130] Lean D November 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report[131] Tossup September 30, 2016
Daily Kos[132] Tossup September 23, 2016
Real Clear Politics[133] Tossup October 1, 2016

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
Toomey (R)
Katie
McGinty (D)
Edward
Clifford (L)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 30 – June 1, 2014 835 ± 3.4% 42% 38% 20%
Quinnipiac University August 7–18, 2015 1,085 ± 3% 48% 32% 1% 17%
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015 605 ± 3.9% 35% 28% 38%
Harper Polling September 9–10, 2015 700 ± 3.7% 48% 34% 18%
Quinnipiac University September 25 – October 5, 2015 1,049 ± 3.0% 51% 31% 1% 15%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 2015 1,012 ± 3.1% 43% 36% 21%
Robert Morris University February 11–16, 2016 511 ± 4.5% 34% 21% 45%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016 662 ± 3.75% 47% 39% 13%
Mercyhurst University March 1–11, 2016 421 ± 4.8% 47% 34% 2% 13%
Quinnipiac University March 30 – April 4, 2016 1,737 ± 2.4% 47% 38% 1% 12%
Quinnipiac University April 27 – May 8, 2016 1,077 ± 3.0% 45% 44% 11%
Public Policy Polling June 3–5, 2016 1,106 ± 3.0% 41% 38% 21%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016 965 ± 3.2% 45% 42% 12%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016 950 ± 3.2% 49% 40% 8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016 300 ± 5.7% 46% 38% 16%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016 980 ± 3.1% 40% 39% 21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016 829 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 2% 8%
Quinnipiac University June 30 – July 11, 2016 982 ± 3.1% 49% 39% 1% 9%
Suffolk University July 25–27, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 36% 43% 1% 19%
Public Policy Polling July 29–31, 2016 1,505 ± 2.7% 42% 41% 17%
Franklin & Marshall College July 29 – August 1, 2016 389 LV ± 6.3% 38% 39% 23%
661 RV ± 4.8% 30% 38% 32%
Susquehanna Polling & Research July 31 – August 4, 2016 772 ± 3.5% 40% 42% 2% 16%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016 834 ± 3.4% 44% 48% 1% 7%
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 7, 2016 815 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 9%
GBA Strategies August 21–28, 2016 881 ± 4.4% 42% 47% 8% 3%
Emerson College August 25–28, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 46% 39% 5% 10%
Franklin & Marshall College August 25–29, 2016 496 LV ± 5.6% 38% 43% 18%
736 RV ± 4.6% 37% 36% 27%
Monmouth University August 26–29, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 41% 45% 6% 8%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 2016 1,194 ± 3.0% 40% 46% 14%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016 814 ± 3.4% 41% 44% 15%
CBS News/YouGov August 30 – September 2, 2016 1,091 ± 4.1% 39% 39% 2% 20%
Quinnipiac University August 29 – September 7, 2016 778 ± 3.5% 46% 45% 1% 7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 12–16, 2016 405 ± 5.5% 38% 43% 19%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016 400 ± 4.0% 45% 43% 12%
Mercyhurst University September 12–23, 2016 420 ± 4.8% 43% 42% 15%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 19–23, 2016 486 ± 5.0% 41% 40% 20%
Harper Polling September 21–22, 2016 500 ± 4.4% 42% 42% 8% 8%
CNN/ORC September 20–25, 2016 771 LV ± 3.5% 46% 49% 2%
895 RV
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016 886 ± 3.3% 35% 40% 9% 16%
42% 44% 14%
Quinnipiac University September 27 – October 2, 2016 535 ± 4.2% 50% 42% 7%
Franklin & Marshall College September 28 – October 2, 2016 496 LV ± 6.1% 35% 41% 2% 22%
813 RV ± 4.8% 31% 36% 11% 22%
Monmouth University September 30 – October 3, 2016 402 ± 4.9% 46% 46% 3% 5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–6, 2016 709 ± 3.7% 44% 48% 2% 6%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016 997 ± 4.2% 42% 42% 1% 15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 4–9, 2016 764 ± 3.5% 42% 38% 7% 1% 12%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 2016 1,457 ± 3.0% 44% 44% 12%
Bloomberg/Selzer October 7–11, 2016 806 ± 3.5% 45% 47% 2% 4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 2016 1,449 ± 0.5% 47% 47% 6%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016 660 ± 3.8% 49% 45% 6%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016 800 ± 3.4% 46% 43% 5% 7%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 23–25, 2016 824 ± 3.4% 44% 47% 9%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 20–26, 2016 420 ± 5.5% 41% 41% 1% 17%
Emerson College October 25–26, 2016 550 ± 4.1% 43% 45% 7% 5%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016 1,091 ± 3.7% 41% 44% 2% 13%
Franklin & Marshall College October 26–30, 2016 652 LV ± 5.1% 35% 47% 1% 2% 16%
863 RV ± 4.4% 33% 43% 1% 23%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 2016 2,255 ± 4.6% 46% 49% 5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 2, 2016 2,078 ± 4.6% 46% 50% 4%
Quinnipiac University October 27 – November 1, 2016 612 ± 4.0% 47% 48% 1% 5%
CNN/ORC October 27 – November 1, 2016 799 LV ± 3.5% 46% 51% 1% 1%
917 RV ± 3.0% 47% 49% 1% 2%
Monmouth University October 29 – November 1, 2016 403 ± 4.9% 44% 47% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 2016 1,050 ± 3.0% 44% 46% 10%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 2016 2,177 ± 4.6% 46% 50% 4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 31 – November 2, 2016 681 ± 3.8% 41% 47% 5% 1% 7%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 2016 2,454 ± 4.6% 45% 50% 5%
Harper Polling November 2–3, 2016 504 ± 4.4% 44% 44% 6% 5%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 30 – November 4, 2016 405 ± 5.5% 43% 42% 15%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–4, 2016 1,033 ± 3.0% 43% 46% 11%
CBS News/YouGov November 3–5, 2016 931 ± 4.3% 46% 47% 1% 6%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 2016 2,685 ± 4.6% 45% 50% 5%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 2016 2,845 ± 4.6% 45% 49% 6%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016[134]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Republican Pat Toomey (incumbent) 2,951,702 48.77% -2.24%
Democratic Katie McGinty 2,865,012 47.34% -1.65%
Libertarian Edward T. Clifford III 235,142 3.89% N/A
Total votes 6,051,856 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

See also

References

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External links

Official campaign websites
  • Pat Toomey (R) for Senate
  • Katie McGinty (D) for Senate