The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in a close race, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford.[1][2] With a margin of 1.43%, this election was the second-closest race of the 2016 Senate election cycle, behind only the election in New Hampshire.
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Toomey: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McGinty: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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As of 2023, this is the last time that Republicans won a U.S. Senate election in Pennsylvania. This is also the last time that the winner of the United States Senate election in Pennsylvania won a majority of Pennsylvania's counties.
Five-term senator Arlen Specter, a longtime moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, and ran for reelection in 2010 as a Democrat. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Toomey had previously run for the seat in 2004, narrowly losing to Specter in the Republican primary. Specter later died in 2012.
After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority.[3][4][5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She then went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003.[6] McGinty faced 2010 nominee Sestask and Mayor of Braddock, future Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania and holder of this Senate seat John Fetterman in the primary.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Pat Toomey | 1,342,941 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 1,342,941 | 100.00% |
A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh.[113]
A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, in Harrisburg.[114]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Vodvarka |
John Fetterman |
Katie McGinty |
Joe Sestak |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy | April 24–25, 2016 | 942 | ± 3.2% | – | 14% | 39% | 34% | – | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived April 27, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 21–23, 2016 | 641 | ± 3.9% | 3% | 15% | 39% | 33% | – | 11% |
Monmouth University Archived April 21, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 17–19, 2016 | 302 | ± 5.6% | – | 4% | 39% | 39% | – | 18% |
Franklin & Marshall College | April 11–18, 2016 | 510 | ± 5.3% | – | 8% | 27% | 38% | 2% | 25% |
Harper Polling Archived April 7, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 3–4, 2016 | 603 | ± 4.0% | – | 9% | 31% | 41% | – | 19% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 14–20, 2016 | 408 | ± 4.7% | – | 7% | 14% | 31% | 2% | 46% |
Harper Polling Archived March 25, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.6% | 4% | 15% | 17% | 33% | – | 35% |
Harper Polling Archived January 30, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | January 22–23, 2016 | 640 | ± 3.8% | – | 11% | 28% | 33% | – | 28% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | – | 14% | 22% | 29% | – | 35% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 298 | ± ? | – | – | 13% | 16% | 5% | 66% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Ed Pawlowski |
Joe Sestak |
Josh Shapiro |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Robert Morris University Archived June 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 8–16, 2015 | ? | ± ? | 11.1% | 44.7% | — | — | 44.3% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 173 | ± 7.45% | 12% | 42% | 8% | — | 39% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kathleen Kane |
Joe Sestak |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived January 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | February 22–23, 2014 | 501 | ± 4.38% | 47% | 24% | — | 29% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Katie McGinty | 669,774 | 42.50% | |
Democratic | Joe Sestak | 513,221 | 32.57% | |
Democratic | John Fetterman | 307,090 | 19.49% | |
Democratic | Joseph Vodvarka | 85,837 | 5.45% | |
Total votes | 1,575,922 | 100.00% |
Dates | Location | Toomey | McGinty | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 17, 2016 | Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
October 24, 2016 | Philadelphia, Pennsylvania | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[116] | Tossup | November 2, 2016 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[117] | Lean D (flip) | November 7, 2016 |
Rothenberg Political Report[118] | Tossup | November 3, 2016 |
Daily Kos[119] | Lean D (flip) | November 8, 2016 |
Real Clear Politics[120] | Tossup | November 7, 2016 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Katie McGinty (D) |
Edward Clifford (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SurveyMonkey | November 1–7, 2016 | 2,845 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 49% | — | — | 6% |
SurveyMonkey | October 31–November 6, 2016 | 2,685 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
CBS News/YouGov | November 3–5, 2016 | 931 | ± 4.3% | 46% | 47% | — | 1% | 6% |
Clarity Campaign Labs | November 1–4, 2016 | 1,033 | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | — | — | 11% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | October 30–November 4, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived November 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | November 2–3, 2016 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 44% | 44% | 6% | — | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 28–November 3, 2016 | 2,454 | ± 4.6% | 45% | 50% | — | — | 5% |
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | November 1–2, 2016 | 1,016 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | — | — | 12% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 31–November 2, 2016 | 681 | ± 3.8% | 41% | 47% | 5% | 1% | 7% |
SurveyMonkey | October 27–November 2, 2016 | 2,177 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
Public Policy Polling | October 31–November 1, 2016 | 1,050 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | — | — | 10% |
Monmouth University | October 29–November 1, 2016 | 403 | ± 4.9% | 44% | 47% | 3% | — | 6% |
CNN/ORC | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 799 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 51% | — | 1% | 1% |
917 RV | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | — | 1% | 2% | ||
Quinnipiac University Archived November 4, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 27–November 1, 2016 | 612 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 48% | — | 1% | 5% |
SurveyMonkey | October 26–November 2, 2016 | 2,078 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 50% | — | — | 4% |
SurveyMonkey | October 25–31, 2016 | 2,255 | ± 4.6% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | October 26–30, 2016 | 652 LV | ± 5.1% | 35% | 47% | 1% | 2% | 16% |
863 RV | ± 4.4% | 33% | 43% | — | 1% | 23% | ||
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | October 25–30, 2016 | 3,217 | ± 1.7% | 41% | 45% | — | — | 13% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 26–28, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 3.7% | 41% | 44% | — | 2% | 13% |
Emerson College | October 25–26, 2016 | 550 | ± 4.1% | 43% | 45% | — | 7% | 5% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Archived October 29, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 20–26, 2016 | 420 | ± 5.5% | 41% | 41% | — | 1% | 17% |
New York Times Upshot/Siena College Archived October 31, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 23–25, 2016 | 824 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
Emerson College | October 17–19, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 43% | — | 5% | 7% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 19, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | October 10–16, 2016 | 660 | ± 3.8% | 49% | 45% | — | — | 6% |
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey Archived September 14, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | October 8–16, 2016 | 1,449 | ± 0.5% | 47% | 47% | — | — | 6% |
Bloomberg/Selzer | October 7–11, 2016 | 806 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | — | 2% | 4% |
The Times-Picayune/Lucid | October 7–10, 2016 | 1,457 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | — | — | 12% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | October 4–9, 2016 | 764 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | 7% | 1% | 12% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 5–7, 2016 | 997 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 42% | — | 1% | 15% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | October 3–6, 2016 | 709 | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | — | 2% | 6% |
Monmouth University | September 30–October 3, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 46% | 46% | 3% | — | 5% |
Franklin & Marshall College | September 28–October 2, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 6.1% | 35% | 41% | 2% | — | 22% |
813 RV | ± 4.8% | 31% | 36% | — | 11% | 22% | ||
Quinnipiac University Archived October 6, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 27–October 2, 2016 | 535 | ± 4.2% | 50% | 42% | — | — | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | September 27–28, 2016 | 886 | ± 3.3% | 35% | 40% | 9% | — | 16% |
42% | 44% | — | — | 14% | ||||
CNN/ORC | September 20–25, 2016 | 771 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 49% | — | — | 2% |
895 RV | ||||||||
Breitbart/Gravis Marketing | September 23, 2016 | 949 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
Harper Polling Archived October 1, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 21–22, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 42% | 8% | — | 8% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | September 19–23, 2016 | 486 | ± 5.0% | 41% | 40% | — | — | 20% |
Mercyhurst University | September 12–23, 2016 | 420 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 42% | — | — | 15% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived September 23, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | September 10–19, 2016 | 400 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 43% | — | — | 12% |
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call | September 12–16, 2016 | 405 | ± 5.5% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 19% |
Quinnipiac University Archived September 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 29–September 7, 2016 | 778 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 45% | — | 1% | 7% |
CBS News/YouGov | August 30–September 2, 2016 | 1,091 | ± 4.1% | 39% | 39% | — | 2% | 20% |
Public Policy Polling Archived September 9, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | August 30–31, 2016 | 814 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 44% | — | — | 15% |
Public Policy Polling | August 26–27, 2016 | 1,194 | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | — | — | 14% |
Monmouth University | August 26–29, 2016 | 402 | ± 4.9% | 41% | 45% | 6% | — | 8% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 25–29, 2016 | 496 LV | ± 5.6% | 38% | 43% | — | — | 18% |
736 RV | ± 4.6% | 37% | 36% | — | — | 27% | ||
Emerson College | August 25–28, 2016 | 800 | ± 3.4% | 46% | 39% | — | 5% | 10% |
GBA Strategies | August 21–28, 2016 | 881 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 47% | — | 8% | 3% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | July 30–August 7, 2016 | 815 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | — | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | August 3–7, 2016 | 834 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 48% | — | 1% | 7% |
Susquehanna Polling & Research | July 31–August 4, 2016 | 772 | ± 3.5% | 40% | 42% | — | 2% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | July 29–August 1, 2016 | 389 LV | ± 6.3% | 38% | 39% | — | — | 23% |
661 RV | ± 4.8% | 30% | 38% | — | — | 32% | ||
Public Policy Polling | July 29–31, 2016 | 1,505 | ± 2.7% | 42% | 41% | — | — | 17% |
Suffolk University Archived August 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | July 25–27, 2016 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 36% | 43% | — | 1% | 19% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 15, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | June 30–July 11, 2016 | 982 | ± 3.1% | 49% | 39% | — | 1% | 9% |
NBC/WSJ/Marist | July 5–10, 2016 | 829 | ± 3.4% | 44% | 47% | — | 2% | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | June 22–23, 2016 | 980 | ± 3.1% | 40% | 39% | — | — | 21% |
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps Archived July 5, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | June 11–20, 2016 | 300 | ± 5.7% | 46% | 38% | — | — | 16% |
Quinnipiac University | June 8–19, 2016 | 950 | ± 3.2% | 49% | 40% | — | — | 8% |
Public Policy Polling | June 8–9, 2016 | 965 | ± 3.2% | 45% | 42% | — | — | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | June 3–5, 2016 | 1,106 | ± 3.0% | 41% | 38% | — | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 3, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | April 27–May 8, 2016 | 1,077 | ± 3.0% | 45% | 44% | — | — | 11% |
Quinnipiac University Archived April 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 38% | — | 1% | 12% |
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 34% | — | 2% | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 39% | — | — | 13% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 21% | — | — | 45% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± 3.1% | 43% | 36% | — | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 25–October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 51% | 31% | — | 1% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived October 25, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 34% | — | — | 18% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 35% | 28% | — | — | 38% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 28, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 32% | — | 1% | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30–June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 42% | 38% | — | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
John Fetterman (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 49% | 31% | 2% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 36% | — | 16% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 14% | — | 49% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 34% | — | 24% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Joe Sestak (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Quinnipiac University Archived April 18, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 30–April 4, 2016 | 1,737 | ± 2.4% | 47% | 39% | 1% | 10% |
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 43% | 38% | 1% | 15% |
Harper Polling Archived March 12, 2016, at the Wayback Machine | March 1–2, 2016 | 662 | ± 3.75% | 47% | 41% | — | 13% |
Robert Morris University | February 11–16, 2016 | 511 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 18% | — | 48% |
Public Policy Polling | October 8–11, 2015 | 1,012 | ± -3.1 | 41% | 38% | — | 21% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 12, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 25-October 5, 2015 | 1,049 | ± 3.0% | 49% | 34% | 1% | 13% |
Harper Polling Archived October 25, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | September 9–10, 2015 | 700 | ± 3.7% | 47% | 37% | — | 15% |
Franklin & Marshall College | August 17–24, 2015 | 605 | ± 3.9% | 41% | 29% | — | 31% |
Quinnipiac University Archived August 28, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | August 7–18, 2015 | 1,085 | ± 3% | 48% | 33% | 1% | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 47% | 36% | 1% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 35% | 31% | — | 34% |
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
Robert Morris University Archived June 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 8–16, 2015 | 529 | ± 4.5% | 28.5% | 34.2% | — | 37.3% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 53% | 32% | — | 15% |
Quinnipiac University Archived April 6, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | March 17–28, 2015 | 1,036 | ± 3% | 48% | 35% | 1% | 16% |
Franklin & Marshall College | March 17–23, 2015 | 597 | ± 4.2% | 34% | 29% | — | 37% |
Quinnipiac University Archived February 11, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | Jan. 22–Feb. 1, 2015 | 881 | ± 3.3% | 45% | 35% | — | 20% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 40% | 36% | — | 23% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 35% | — | 24% |
Harper Polling Archived January 4, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 42% | — | 9% |
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 42% | — | 16% |
Quinnipiac University Archived October 23, 2013, at the Wayback Machine | May 30 – June 4, 2013 | 1,032 | ± 3.1% | 42% | 37% | 1% | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Chris Carney (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Vincent Hughes (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 35% | — | 21% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Kathleen Kane (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 44% | 38% | — | 17% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 40% | 42% | — | 19% |
Harper Polling Archived January 4, 2014, at the Wayback Machine | December 21–22, 2013 | 604 | ± 4% | 49% | 44% | — | 7% |
Public Policy Polling | November 22–25, 2013 | 693 | ± 3.7% | 42% | 46% | — | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Chris Matthews (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 38% | — | 20% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Michael Nutter (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 42% | 35% | — | 23% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Ed Pawlowski (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Mercyhurst University | March 1–11, 2016 | 421 | ± 4.8% | 47% | 31% | 2% | 16% |
Quinnipiac University Archived June 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | June 4–15, 2015 | 970 | ± 3.2% | 52% | 28% | 1% | 19% |
Franklin & Marshall College | June 8–14, 2015 | 556 | ± 4.1% | 34% | 23% | — | 43% |
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 34% | — | 22% |
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 54% | 30% | — | 16% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Ed Rendell (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 41% | — | 13% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 41% | 44% | — | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Josh Shapiro (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Harper Polling Archived May 27, 2015, at the Wayback Machine | May 6–7, 2015 | 503 | ± 4.37% | 55% | 27% | — | 18% |
Public Policy Polling | January 15–18, 2015 | 1,042 | ± 3% | 43% | 31% | — | 26% |
Public Policy Polling | May 30 – June 1, 2014 | 835 | ± 3.4% | 41% | 32% | — | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Pat Toomey (R) |
Seth Williams (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 21–24, 2015 | 799 | ± 3.5% | 44% | 33% | — | 23% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Pat Toomey (incumbent) | 2,951,702 | 48.77% | -2.24% | |
Democratic | Katie McGinty | 2,865,012 | 47.34% | -1.65% | |
Libertarian | Edward T. Clifford III | 235,142 | 3.89% | N/A | |
Total votes | 6,051,856 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Republican hold |
County[122] | Katie McGinty
Democratic |
Patrick J. Toomey
Republican |
Edward T. Clifford III
Libertarian |
Margin | Total Votes Cast | ||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
# | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
Adams | 14,593 | 30.72% | 30,492 | 64.19% | 2,418 | 5.09% | 15,899 | 33.47% | 47,503 |
Allegheny | 357,450 | 55.25% | 261,316 | 40.39% | 28,260 | 4.37% | -96,134 | -14.86% | 647,026 |
Armstrong | 8,387 | 26.71% | 20,793 | 66.22% | 2,220 | 7.07% | 12,406 | 39.51% | 31,400 |
Beaver | 34,263 | 41.12% | 44,000 | 52.81% | 5,058 | 6.07% | 9,737 | 11.69% | 83,321 |
Bedford | 4,356 | 18.58% | 17,739 | 75.68% | 1,344 | 5.73% | 13,383 | 57.10% | 23,439 |
Berks | 77,028 | 42.93% | 95,466 | 53.21% | 6,919 | 3.86% | 18,438 | 10.28% | 179,413 |
Blair | 15,107 | 27.57% | 36,533 | 66.68% | 3,150 | 5.75% | 21,426 | 39.11% | 54,790 |
Bradford | 6,985 | 27.33% | 16,574 | 64.85% | 2,000 | 7.83% | 9,589 | 37.52% | 25,559 |
Bucks | 157,709 | 46.46% | 175,898 | 51.82% | 5,845 | 1.72% | 18,189 | 5.36% | 339,452 |
Butler | 28,715 | 29.72% | 62,425 | 64.62% | 5,465 | 5.66% | 33,710 | 34.89% | 96,605 |
Cambria | 21,894 | 34.90% | 36,948 | 58.90% | 3,886 | 6.20% | 15,054 | 24.00% | 62,728 |
Cameron | 593 | 27.53% | 1,390 | 64.53% | 171 | 7.94% | 797 | 37.00% | 2,154 |
Carbon | 10,086 | 35.75% | 16,360 | 57.98% | 1,770 | 6.27% | 6,274 | 22.24% | 28,216 |
Centre | 35,487 | 46.45% | 36,527 | 47.82% | 4,378 | 5.73% | 1,040 | 1.36% | 76,392 |
Chester | 127,552 | 47.10% | 133,662 | 49.36% | 9,588 | 3.54% | 6,110 | 2.26% | 270,802 |
Clarion | 4,931 | 28.27% | 11,310 | 64.83% | 1,204 | 6.90% | 6,379 | 36.57% | 17,445 |
Clearfield | 9,454 | 27.80% | 22,128 | 65.06% | 2,429 | 7.14% | 12,674 | 37.26% | 34,011 |
Clinton | 5,511 | 36.34% | 8,702 | 57.38% | 952 | 6.28% | 3,191 | 21.04% | 15,165 |
Columbia | 9,819 | 34.94% | 16,292 | 57.97% | 1,991 | 7.08% | 6,473 | 23.03% | 28,102 |
Crawford | 11,047 | 29.65% | 24,472 | 65.68% | 1,740 | 4.67% | 13,425 | 36.03% | 37,259 |
Cumberland | 44,796 | 36.74% | 71,638 | 58.75% | 5,509 | 4.52% | 26,842 | 22.01% | 121,943 |
Dauphin | 62,551 | 48.61% | 63,740 | 49.54% | 2,383 | 1.85% | 1,189 | 0.92% | 128,674 |
Delaware | 163,377 | 55.64% | 126,300 | 43.01% | 3,948 | 1.34% | -37,077 | -12.63% | 293,625 |
Elk | 4,509 | 31.48% | 8,703 | 60.76% | 1,111 | 7.76% | 4,194 | 29.28% | 14,323 |
Erie | 56,846 | 46.32% | 60,948 | 49.66% | 4,930 | 4.02% | 4,102 | 3.34% | 122,724 |
Fayette | 20,547 | 38.62% | 29,699 | 55.82% | 2,958 | 5.56% | 9,152 | 17.20% | 53,204 |
Forest | 708 | 29.82% | 1,502 | 63.27% | 164 | 6.91% | 794 | 33.45% | 2,374 |
Franklin | 17,827 | 25.54% | 48,658 | 69.72% | 3,309 | 4.74% | 30,831 | 44.17% | 69,794 |
Fulton | 1,025 | 15.23% | 5,456 | 81.06% | 250 | 3.71% | 4,431 | 65.83% | 6,731 |
Greene | 5,692 | 36.93% | 8,826 | 57.26% | 896 | 5.81% | 3,134 | 20.33% | 15,414 |
Huntingdon | 5,105 | 26.06% | 13,078 | 66.76% | 1,406 | 7.18% | 7,973 | 40.70% | 19,589 |
Indiana | 12,592 | 33.32% | 22,245 | 58.86% | 2,955 | 7.82% | 9,653 | 25.54% | 37,792 |
Jefferson | 4,160 | 21.54% | 13,706 | 70.95% | 1,451 | 7.51% | 9,546 | 49.42% | 19,317 |
Juniata | 2,153 | 20.66% | 7,657 | 73.47% | 612 | 5.87% | 5,504 | 52.81% | 10,422 |
Lackawanna | 53,936 | 52.93% | 40,519 | 39.76% | 7,455 | 7.32% | -13,417 | -13.17% | 101,910 |
Lancaster | 89,922 | 37.07% | 142,774 | 58.85% | 9,909 | 4.08% | 52,852 | 21.79% | 242,605 |
Lawrence | 15,289 | 37.96% | 22,674 | 56.29% | 2,317 | 5.75% | 7,385 | 18.33% | 40,280 |
Lebanon | 19,079 | 31.01% | 39,386 | 64.02% | 3,060 | 4.97% | 20,307 | 33.01% | 61,525 |
Lehigh | 77,232 | 48.25% | 76,216 | 47.61% | 6,627 | 4.14% | -1,016 | -0.63% | 160,075 |
Luzerne | 56,477 | 42.89% | 66,551 | 50.54% | 8,650 | 6.57% | 10,074 | 7.65% | 131,678 |
Lycoming | 14,187 | 28.06% | 33,015 | 65.29% | 3,365 | 6.65% | 18,828 | 37.23% | 50,567 |
Mckean | 3,987 | 24.73% | 11,530 | 71.52% | 605 | 3.75% | 7,543 | 46.79% | 16,122 |
Mercer | 19,193 | 37.05% | 30,567 | 59.00% | 2,046 | 3.95% | 11,374 | 21.95% | 51,806 |
Mifflin | 4,031 | 22.13% | 13,089 | 71.87% | 1,093 | 6.00% | 9,058 | 49.73% | 18,213 |
Monroe | 34,280 | 51.32% | 30,743 | 46.03% | 1,768 | 2.65% | -3,537 | -5.30% | 66,791 |
Montgomery | 237,353 | 54.90% | 189,574 | 43.85% | 5,431 | 1.26% | -47,779 | -11.05% | 432,358 |
Montour | 2,898 | 33.89% | 5,066 | 59.25% | 586 | 6.85% | 2,168 | 25.36% | 8,550 |
Northampton | 64,151 | 45.86% | 72,172 | 51.59% | 3,566 | 2.55% | 8,021 | 5.73% | 139,889 |
Northumberland | 11,117 | 31.28% | 21,826 | 61.42% | 2,592 | 7.29% | 10,709 | 30.14% | 35,535 |
Perry | 4,962 | 23.53% | 14,898 | 70.64% | 1,231 | 5.84% | 9,936 | 47.11% | 21,091 |
Philadelphia | 560,421 | 81.79% | 116,714 | 17.03% | 8,030 | 1.17% | -443,707 | -64.76% | 685,165 |
Pike | 9,329 | 36.39% | 15,192 | 59.27% | 1,113 | 4.34% | 5,863 | 22.87% | 25,634 |
Potter | 1,387 | 18.01% | 5,990 | 77.79% | 323 | 4.19% | 4,603 | 59.78% | 7,700 |
Schuylkill | 19,539 | 31.45% | 37,757 | 60.77% | 4,832 | 7.78% | 18,218 | 29.32% | 62,128 |
Snyder | 4,299 | 26.40% | 10,867 | 66.74% | 1,116 | 6.85% | 6,568 | 40.34% | 16,282 |
Somerset | 8,340 | 23.34% | 25,470 | 71.28% | 1,923 | 5.38% | 17,130 | 47.94% | 35,733 |
Sullivan | 867 | 28.03% | 2,020 | 65.31% | 206 | 6.66% | 1,153 | 37.28% | 3,093 |
Susquehanna | 5,535 | 28.76% | 11,996 | 62.33% | 1,716 | 8.92% | 6,461 | 33.57% | 19,247 |
Tioga | 3,992 | 21.97% | 13,418 | 73.83% | 764 | 4.20% | 9,426 | 51.87% | 18,174 |
Union | 6,092 | 34.81% | 10,568 | 60.39% | 841 | 4.81% | 4,476 | 25.58% | 17,501 |
Venango | 6,989 | 30.11% | 14,581 | 62.83% | 1,638 | 7.06% | 7,592 | 32.71% | 23,208 |
Warren | 5,124 | 28.14% | 12,130 | 66.60% | 958 | 5.26% | 7,006 | 38.47% | 18,212 |
Washington | 38,133 | 37.79% | 56,952 | 56.44% | 5,824 | 5.77% | 18,819 | 18.65% | 100,909 |
Wayne | 7,487 | 31.42% | 14,538 | 61.01% | 1,803 | 7.57% | 7,051 | 29.59% | 23,828 |
Westmoreland | 62,981 | 34.94% | 107,532 | 59.65% | 9,745 | 5.41% | 44,551 | 24.72% | 180,258 |
Wyoming | 4,154 | 31.79% | 7,844 | 60.03% | 1,068 | 8.17% | 3,690 | 28.24% | 13,066 |
York | 69,394 | 33.68% | 126,350 | 61.33% | 10,271 | 4.99% | 56,956 | 27.65% | 206,015 |
Pennsylvania | 2,865,012 | 47.34% | 2,951,702 | 48.77% | 235,142 | 3.89% | 86,690 | 1.43% | 6,051,856 |