The 2018 Colorado gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the next governor of Colorado. Incumbent Democratic governor John Hickenlooper was term-limited and could not seek a third consecutive term. The primary election was held on June 26.[1]
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Polis: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Stapleton: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% No votes | ||||||||||||||||||||
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The major party nominees were Democratic U.S. Representative Jared Polis and Republican State Treasurer Walker Stapleton. The general election took place on November 6, 2018, with Polis winning by 268,000 votes.[2][3] This was the first Colorado gubernatorial election in which both major party candidates received over one million votes.
Polis's victory marked the fourth straight election in which Colorado elected a Democratic governor and the first time in American electoral history that an openly gay politician was elected governor of a state.
With Hickenlooper ineligible to run for a third term in office, multiple Democratic politicians vied for the party's nomination for governor. Prior to his resignation in 2015, former lieutenant governor Joseph Garcia was seen as a probable candidate for governor in 2018.[4]
On March 6, 2018, Democrats of precincts across Colorado met and voted how many delegates each candidate who was caucusing on the ballot would get. As of March 11, 2018 at 7:30 p.m., 96.83% of precincts had reported and added up to the below results.[25]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Johnston |
Cary Kennedy |
Donna Lynne |
Jared Polis |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategies 360 | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 387 | ± 5.0% | 12% | 23% | 2% | 34% | – | 29% |
Magellan Strategies (R) | May 30–31, 2018 | 503 | ± 4.4% | 9% | 18% | 3% | 31% | – | 39% |
TargetPoint/GQR | March 2018 | – | – | – | 18% | – | 18% | 12% | 52% |
Magellan Strategies (R) | March 20–23, 2018 | 410 | ± 4.8% | 8% | 23% | 5% | 27% | 1% | 36% |
University of Colorado Boulder | November 9–15, 2017 | 357 | ± 3.5% | 4% | 6% | 4% | 24% | 2%[43] | 58% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jared Polis | 282,725 | 44.46 | |
Democratic | Cary Kennedy | 157,098 | 24.71 | |
Democratic | Mike Johnston | 149,717 | 23.55 | |
Democratic | Donna Lynne | 46,316 | 7.28 | |
Total votes | 635,856 | 100.0 |
Based on information shared by some key counties, as well as a recent survey, the following are believed to be results of the Republican Caucus from key counties.[66]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cynthia Coffman |
Greg Lopez |
Victor Mitchell |
Doug Robinson |
Walker Stapleton |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies (R) | June 6–7, 2018 | 593 | ± 4.0% | – | 10% | 23% | 4% | 36% | – | 27% |
TargetPoint/GQR | March 2018 | – | – | 7% | – | – | – | 15% | 16% | 62% |
Magellan Strategies (R) | February 26–27, 2018 | 647 | ± 3.9% | 13% | – | 5% | 8% | 26% | 9% | 39% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
George Brauchler |
Cynthia Coffman |
Victor Mitchell |
Doug Robinson |
Walker Stapleton |
Tom Tancredo |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of Colorado Boulder | November 9–15, 2017 | 250 | ± 3.5% | 4% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 8% | 25% | 54% |
Braynard Group (R) | September 26–28, 2017 | 400 | ± 3.2% | 7% | 6% | 1% | 0.3% | 8.5% | 22% | 54% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Walker Stapleton | 239,415 | 47.66 | |
Republican | Victor Mitchell | 151,365 | 30.13 | |
Republican | Greg Lopez | 66,330 | 13.20 | |
Republican | Doug Robinson | 45,245 | 9.01 | |
Total votes | 502,355 | 100.0 |
Dates | Location | Polis | Stapleton | Link |
---|---|---|---|---|
October 6, 2018 | Grand Junction, Colorado | Participant | Participant | Full debate - C-SPAN |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[74] | Lean D | October 26, 2018 |
The Washington Post[75] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[76] | Likely D | November 5, 2018 |
Rothenberg Political Report[77] | Lean D | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[78] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[79] | Lean D | November 4, 2018 |
Daily Kos[80] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Fox News[81][a] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Politico[82] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Governing[83] | Lean D | November 5, 2018 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Walker Stapleton (R) |
Scott Helker (L) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Magellan Strategies | October 29–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 45% | 40% | 3% | 1%[127] | 11% |
Keating Research/OnSight Public Affairs/Martin Campaigns | October 25–30, 2018 | 517 | ± 4.3% | 50% | 42% | 4% | 1%[127] | 4% |
University of Colorado/YouGov | October 12–17, 2018 | 800 | ± 3.5% | 54% | 42% | 3% | – | 2% |
Magellan Strategies | October 8–10, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 47% | 40% | 4% | 0%[128] | 9% |
Keating Research/Magellan Strategies | September 18–20, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 40% | 1% | 0%[128] | 11% |
Kaiser Family Foundation/CO Health Foundation/SSRS | August 15 – September 19, 2018 | 1,585 | – | 44% | 33% | – | – | 21% |
Public Policy Polling (D-CO Democratic Party) | June 27–28, 2018 | 608 | – | 47% | 40% | – | – | 13% |
Strategies 360 | May 29 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 37% | – | 3% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cary Kennedy (D) |
Walker Stapleton (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Strategies 360 | May 23 – June 6, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 43% | 38% | 4% | 15% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Democrat |
Generic Republican |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clarity Campaign Labs (D-DAGA)[permanent dead link] | May 8–10, 2018 | 883 | ± 3.3% | 52% | 37% | 11% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jared Polis (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 38% | – | 16% |
Braynard Group (R) | September 26–28, 2017 | 1,000 | ± 3.2% | 25% | 25% | 3% | 47% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Cary Kennedy (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 45% | 38% | – | 17% |
Keating Research (D) | November 9–13, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 50% | 34% | 3% | 13% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Mike Johnston (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 39% | 18% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Donna Lynne (D) |
Tom Tancredo (R) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-RBI/Polis) | December 4–5, 2017 | 770 | ± 3.5% | 43% | 38% | 19% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Jared Polis | 1,348,888 | 53.42% | +4.12% | |
Republican | Walker Stapleton | 1,080,801 | 42.80% | -3.15% | |
Libertarian | Scott Helker | 69,519 | 2.75% | +0.81% | |
Unity | Bill Hammons | 25,854 | 1.02% | — | |
Majority | 268,087 | 10.62% | +7.27% | ||
Turnout | 2,525,062 | ||||
Democratic hold |
Polis won 4 of 7 congressional districts.[130]
District | Stapleton | Polis | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 23.7% | 73.05% | Diana DeGette |
2nd | 34.48% | 66.42% | Joe Neguse |
3rd | 49.96% | 46.26% | Scott Tipton |
4th | 57.67% | 38.11% | Ken Buck |
5th | 56.64% | 38.97% | Doug Lamborn |
6th | 42.36% | 54.29% | Jason Crow |
7th | 38.38% | 57.03% | Ed Perlmutter |