Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018

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  Governor Tom Wolf official portrait 2015 (cropped2).jpg Scott Wagner - Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Candidate 2018 (cropped).jpg
Nominee Tom Wolf Scott Wagner
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate John Fetterman Jeff Bartos
Popular vote 2,895,662 2,039,899
Percentage 57.8% 40.7%

Pennsylvania Gubernatorial Election Results by County, 2018.svg
County Results
Wolf:      50–60%      60–70%      80-90%
Wagner:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70-80%

Governor before election

Tom Wolf
Democratic

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2018 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election took place on November 6, 2018, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the election of Pennsylvania's Class I U.S. Senate seat, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various local elections. Incumbent Democratic Governor Tom Wolf won re-election to a second term by a double-digit margin, defeating Republican challenger Scott Wagner and two third-party candidates from the Green Party and Libertarian Party, respectively.[1][2] The primary elections were held on May 15.[3]

Democratic primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
Results
Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent) 741,676 100.0
Total votes 741,676 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Aryanna Berringer (withdrawn)
Kathi Cozzone
Organizations
  • Chester County Democratic Committee
State Representatives
County Commissioners
Former Elected Officials
Madeleine Dean (withdrawn)
State Representatives
Former Elected Officials
John Fetterman
U.S. Senators
Organizations
  • BCTGM Local 6[18]
  • Cambria County Democrats[19]
  • Steel City Stonewall Democrats[20]
  • United Steelworkers District 10[21]
State Representatives
Politicians

Individuals:

Newspapers:

Mike Stack
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
Other Politicians
Declined to endorse

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Aryanna
Berringer
Kathi
Cozzone
Madeleine
Dean
John
Fetterman
Craig
Lehman
Mike
Stack
Undecided
Independence Communications & Campaigns, LLC February 2–4, 2018 467 ± 4.53% 2% 10% 4% 20% 1% 8% 55%

Primary results

Results by county:
  Fetterman—70–80%
  Fetterman—60–70%
  Fetterman—50–60%
  Fetterman—40–50%
  Fetterman—<40%
  Ahmad—40–50%
  Ahmad—<40%
  Cozzone—60–70%
  Cozzone—<40%
  Stack—<40%
Democratic primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic John Fetterman 288,229 38.0
Democratic Nina Ahmad 182,309 23.8
Democratic Kathi Cozzone 142,410 18.6
Democratic Mike Stack (incumbent) 127,259 16.6
Democratic Ray Sosa 27,427 3.6
Total votes 767,634 100.0

Republican primary

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Eliminated in primary

  • Laura Ellsworth, attorney[46][47]
  • Paul Mango, businessman and former U.S. Army Officer[48]
Withdrawn
Declined

Endorsements

Laura Ellsworth
Individuals
County Commissioners
  • Dan Camp, Beaver County Commissioner[60]
Newspapers
Paul Mango
U.S. Senators
Individuals
  • Glen Meakem, entrepreneur, and former radio host[68]
County Commissioners
  • Jeff Haste, Dauphin County Commissioner[69]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County Commissioner[69]
  • Christian Leinbach, Berks County Commissioner[69]
  • Joe Kantz, Snyder County Commissioner[69]
Organizations
Scott Wagner
Federal officials
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State Senators
State Representatives
County Commissioners
  • Chris Reilly, York County Commissioner[74]
Individuals
Organizations
Mike Turzai (Withdrawn)
State Senators
State Representatives
County Chairs
  • Martha Breene, Venango County GOP Chair

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Laura
Ellsworth
Paul
Mango
Scott
Wagner
Other Undecided
Susquehanna Polling & Research May 4–8, 2018 545 ± 4.2% 18% 23% 37% 1% 22%
ColdSpark Media (R-Ellsworth) May 2018 17% 24% 28% 30%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) April 2–3, 2018 500 ± 4.5% 9% 24% 50% 17%
Revily (R-American Principles Project) March 13–15, 2018 800 ± 3.4% 4% 18% 20% 57%
McLaughlin & Associates (R-Wagner) September 18–20, 2017 400 ± 4.9% 16% 45% 39%
5% 13% 45% 37%

Results

Results by county:
  Wagner—60–70%
  Wagner—50–60%
  Wagner—40–50%
  Mango—40–50%
  Mango—50–60%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Wagner 324,013 44.3
Republican Paul Mango 270,014 36.9
Republican Laura Ellsworth 137,650 18.8
Total votes 731,677 100.0

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jeff Bartos, businessman (running with Scott Wagner)[81]

Eliminated in primary

  • Kathy Coder, political activist[82]
  • Diana Irey Vaughan, Washington County Commissioner (running with Paul Mango)[83]
  • Peg Luksik, political activist[84]
Removed from Ballot
Withdrawn
Considered potential
Declined

Endorsements

Jeff Bartos

Results

Results by county:
  Bartos—60–70%
  Bartos—50–60%
  Bartos—40–50%
  Bartos—<40%
  Coder—40–50%
  Coder—<40%
  Vaughan—70–80%
  Vaughan—50–60%
  Vaughan—40–50%
  Luksik—50–60%
  Luksik—<40%
Republican primary
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Jeff Bartos 317,619 46.8
Republican Kathy Coder 147,805 21.8
Republican Diana Irey Vaughan 119,400 17.6
Republican Peg Luksik 93,667 13.8
Total votes 678,491 100.0

Green Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick

Endorsements

Paul Glover

Libertarian Party

Governor

Candidates

Nominated
  • Ken Krawchuk, technology consultant and nominee for governor in 1998, 2002, and 2014[98]

Lieutenant Governor

Candidates

Nominated

  • Kathleen Smith, entrepreneur (Running with Ken Krawchuk)

General election

Candidates

Debates

  • October 1, 2018: Complete video of debate (begins at 08:50)

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[101] Likely D October 26, 2018
Rothenberg Political Report[102] Likely D November 1, 2018
Sabato's Crystal Ball[103] Safe D November 5, 2018
Real Clear Politics[104] Safe D November 5, 2018
Daily Kos Elections[105] Safe D November 5, 2018
Fox News[106][a] Likely D November 5, 2018
Politico[107] Likely D November 5, 2018
Governing[108] Likely D November 5, 2018
The Washington Post[109] Likely D November 5, 2018
FiveThirtyEight[110] Solid D November 5, 2018
Notes
  1. ^ The Fox News Midterm Power Rankings uniquely does not contain a category for Safe/Solid races

Polling

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Tom
Wolf (D)
Scott
Wagner (R)
Other Undecided
Change Research November 2–4, 2018 1,833 53% 42% 3%[111]
Research Co. November 1–3, 2018 450 ± 4.6% 54% 39% 1% 6%
Muhlenberg College October 28 – November 1, 2018 421 ± 5.5% 58% 37%
Franklin & Marshall College October 22–28, 2018 214 LV ± 9.5% 59% 33% 5%
537 RV ± 6.0% 57% 27% 6%[112] 10%
Morning Consult October 1–2, 2018 1,188 ± 3.0% 48% 36% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College September 17–23, 2018 204 LV 52% 30% 17%
545 RV ± 6.1% 52% 28% 2%[113] 18%
Ipsos September 12–20, 2018 1,080 ± 3.0% 55% 38% 2% 6%
Muhlenberg College September 13–19, 2018 404 ± 5.5% 55% 36% 6%[114] 2%
Rasmussen Reports September 12–13, 2018 800 ± 3.5% 52% 40% 3% 5%
Franklin & Marshall College August 20–26, 2018 222 LV 52% 35% 1% 12%
511 RV ± 6.1% 51% 32% 5%[115] 14%
Marist College August 12–16, 2018 713 ± 4.2% 54% 40% <1% 6%
Commonwealth Leaders Fund (R) August 13–15, 2018 2,012 ± 3.6% 46% 43% 3% 8%
Suffolk University June 21–25, 2018 500 ± 4.4% 49% 36% 1% 14%
Franklin & Marshall College June 4–10, 2018 472 ± 6.5% 48% 29% 1% 23%
Muhlenberg College April 4–12, 2018 414 ± 5.5% 47% 31% 5% 16%
Franklin & Marshall College March 19–26, 2018 137 ± 6.8% 38% 21% 6% 35%

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2018[116]
Party Candidate Votes % ±
Democratic Tom Wolf (incumbent)/John Fetterman 2,895,662 57.77% +2.84%
Republican Scott Wagner/Jeff Bartos 2,039,809 40.70% -4.37%
Libertarian Ken Krawchuk/Kathleen Smith 49,229 0.98% N/A
Green Paul Glover/Jocolyn Bowser-Bostick 27,792 0.55% N/A
Total votes 5,012,582 100.0% N/A
Democratic hold

See also

References

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  111. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%
  112. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 3%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 2%
  113. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 1%, Paul Glover (G) with 0%; other with 1%
  114. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) with 2%, Paul Glover (G) with 1%, neither/other with 3%
  115. ^ Ken Krawchuk (L) and Paul Glover (G) with 1%; other with 1%
  116. ^ https://electionreturns.pa.gov/General/SummaryResults?ElectionID=63&ElectionType=G&IsActive=1

External links

Debates
  • GOP Primary Debate, January 20, 2018
Official gubernatorial campaign websites
  • Paul Glover (G) for Governor
  • Ken Krawchuk (L) for Governor
  • Scott Wagner (R) for Governor
  • Tom Wolf (D) for Governor
Official lieutenant gubernatorial campaign websites
  • Jeff Bartos (R) for Lieutenant Governor
  • John Fetterman (D) for Lieutenant Governor