The 2018 United States Senate election in Arizona took place on November 6, 2018.[2] Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake did not seek reelection to a second term. The election was held concurrently with a gubernatorial election, other elections to the U.S. Senate, elections to the U.S. House of Representatives, and various other state and local elections.
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Turnout | 64.85% [1] | ||||||||||||||||
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Sinema: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% McSally: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% No data | |||||||||||||||||
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Primaries were held on August 28, 2018,[3] three days after the death of longtime U.S. Senator John McCain.[4] Martha McSally won the Republican nomination, while Kyrsten Sinema won the Democratic nomination. Green Party candidate Angela Green was also on the ballot, but ended her campaign and endorsed Sinema before Election Day.[5]
The Associated Press called the race for Sinema on November 12, 2018,[6] and McSally conceded that day.[7] Sinema became the first Democrat to win a U.S. Senate seat in Arizona since 1988. McSally was subsequently appointed by Governor Doug Ducey to the other vacant Senate seat in Arizona, left open after McCain's death and then held on an interim basis by Jon Kyl.
Arizona, located along the United States border with Mexico, has a unique political history. Upon its admission to the Union in 1912, the state was dominated by Democrats who had migrated there from the South, and aside from the landslide victories of Republicans Warren G. Harding, Calvin Coolidge, and Herbert Hoover, the state voted for Democrats until 1952, when Dwight Eisenhower carried it, and began a lengthy streak of Republican victories interrupted only by Bill Clinton's narrow victory in 1996. Since then, the state had remained in the Republican camp, and was won by Donald Trump with a 3.5% margin in 2016, although Trump's margin of victory was much smaller than that of past Republican presidential nominees.[8][better source needed]
Incumbent Republican Senator Jeff Flake announced in October 2017 that he would retire at the end of his current term instead of seeking reelection for another term in 2018.[9] Flake had previously indicated his intent to run for reelection in March 2017. However, he was considered vulnerable due to persistently low approval ratings, a poor relationship with President Trump, and the threat of a primary challenge from former state senator Kelli Ward, who promised to run on a more pro-Trump platform. Additionally, he had won his first term in 2012 by only 3 percentage points, even though Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney won Arizona by 9.[10][11][12]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Arpaio |
Martha McSally |
Kelli Ward |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital Archived August 24, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | August 21–22, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 18% | 48% | 22% | 1% | 8% |
OH Predictive Insights | August 14–15, 2018 | 578 | ± 4.1% | 13% | 47% | 27% | – | 12% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–25, 2018 | 576 | ± 4.1% | 15% | 35% | 27% | – | 23% |
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 501 | ± 4.4% | 24% | 36% | 27% | – | 14% |
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 305 | ± 5.9% | 18% | 32% | 19% | 7%[74] | 23% |
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 19–21, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 17% | 38% | 23% | 2% | 21% |
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 371 | ± 6.7% | 21% | 30% | 28% | <1% | 21% |
OH Predictive Insights | June 11–12, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 14% | 39% | 25% | – | 22% |
Remington (R)[A] | May 23–24, 2018 | 2,011 | ± 2.3% | 25% | 42% | 23% | – | 10% |
Magellan Strategies (R) | April 11–12 and 15, 2018 | 755 | ± 3.6% | 26% | 36% | 25% | 6% | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 302 | ± 5.6% | 22% | 27% | 36% | – | 15% |
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | January 11–15, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 22% | 31% | 19% | – | 27% |
OH Predictive Insights | January 9, 2018 | 504 | ± 4.4% | 29% | 31% | 25% | – | 15% |
WPA Intelligence (R)[A] | November 15–16, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | – | 38% | 36% | – | 26% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 323 | ± 5.5% | – | 34% | 42% | – | 24% |
Revily (R)[B] | October 28–31, 2017 | 380 | ± 3.0% | – | 21% | 32% | 15%[75] | 34% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jay Heiler |
Martha McSally |
Matt Salmon |
David Schweikert |
John Shadegg |
Kelli Ward |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital | October 26–28, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 1% | 19% | 10% | 5% | 4% | 26% | 28% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake |
Jeff DeWit |
Nicholas Tutora |
Kelli Ward |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies | August 30 – September 7, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 31% | – | – | 58% | – | 11% |
JMC Analytics (R) | August 26–27, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 21% | – | 3% | 47% | – | 29% |
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | August 18–19, 2017 | 273 | ± 5.9% | 28% | – | – | 43% | 5% | 24% |
Political Marketing International (R-Ward) | February 7, 2017 | 921 | ± 5.0% | 23% | – | – | 30% | – | 47% |
Remington Research Group | November 15–16, 2016 | 1,122 | ± 2.9% | 30% | 38% | – | 15% | – | 17% |
33% | 42% | – | – | – | 25% | ||||
35% | 35% | – | – | – | 30% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Martha McSally | 357,626 | 54.57% | |
Republican | Kelli Ward | 180,926 | 27.61% | |
Republican | Joe Arpaio | 116,555 | 17.79% | |
Write-in | 191 | 0.03% | ||
Total votes | 655,298 | 100.00% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Deedra Abboud |
Kyrsten Sinema |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data Orbital Archived July 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 25–27, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 7% | 63% | 2% | 29% |
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 260 | ± 6.2% | 8% | 51% | 12%[146] | 30% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kyrsten Sinema | 404,170 | 79.25% | |
Democratic | Deedra Abboud | 105,800 | 20.75% | |
Total votes | 509,970 | 100.00% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Green | Angela Green (write-in) | 389 | 100.00% | |
Total votes | 389 | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[150] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Inside Elections[151] | Tilt D (flip) | November 1, 2018 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[152] | Lean D (flip) | November 5, 2018 |
CNN[153] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
RealClearPolitics[154] | Tossup | November 5, 2018 |
FiveThirtyEight[155] | Lean D (flip) | November 6, 2018 |
Daily Kos[156] | Tossup | October 26, 2018 |
Fox News[157] | Tossup | October 30, 2018 |
Campaign finance reports as of October 17, 2018 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate (party) | Total receipts | Total disbursements | Cash on hand |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) | $19,287,249 | $20,249,341 | $1,301,542 |
Martha McSally (R) | $16,211,836 | $13,688,178 | $2,523,657 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[201] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Martha McSally (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Angela Green (G) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
The Trafalgar Group (R) | November 4–5, 2018 | 1,217 | ± 2.8% | 47% | 45% | – | 2% | 6% |
HarrisX | November 3–5, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 49% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | November 2–4, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 47% | – | – | – |
OH Predictive Insights | November 2–3, 2018 | 631 | ± 3.9% | 49% | 48% | 0% | – | 1% |
Emerson College | November 1–3, 2018 | 758 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 49% | 2% | – | 2% |
HarrisX | November 1–3, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | – | – |
Research Co. | November 1–3, 2018 | 450 | ± 4.6% | 44% | 45% | – | 1% | 10% |
HarrisX | October 31 – November 2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 44% | – | – | – |
Gravis Marketing | October 24 – November 2, 2018 | 1,165 | ± 2.9% | 47% | 46% | – | – | 7% |
HarrisX | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 42% | – | – | – |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | October 30 – November 1, 2018 | 2,166 | ± 2.1% | 47% | 50% | – | 2% | 1% |
HarrisX | October 29–31, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 42% | – | – | – |
Vox Populi Polling | October 27–30, 2018 | 677 | ± 3.7% | 48% | 52% | – | – | – |
HarrisX | October 24–30, 2018 | 1,400 | ± 2.6% | 48% | 43% | – | – | – |
FOX News | October 27–29, 2018 | 643 LV | ± 3.5% | 46% | 46% | – | 3% | 5% |
710 RV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | – | 4% | 6% | ||
CNN/SSRS | October 24–29, 2018 | 702 LV | ± 4.4% | 47% | 51% | – | 0% | 1% |
867 RV | ± 4.0% | 45% | 48% | – | 0% | 3% | ||
HighGround Public Affairs Archived October 30, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 26–28, 2018 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 47% | 45% | 4% | – | 5% |
NBC News/Marist College | October 23–27, 2018 | 506 LV | ± 5.4% | 44% | 47% | 6% | <1% | 3% |
44% | 50% | – | 2% | 4% | ||||
793 RV | ± 4.4% | 43% | 45% | 7% | <1% | 5% | ||
43% | 49% | – | 2% | 6% | ||||
CBS News/YouGov | October 23–26, 2018 | 972 | ± 4.1% | 44% | 47% | – | 3% | 5% |
Ipsos | October 17–26, 2018 | 799 | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 3% | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 22–23, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 52% | 45% | 1% | – | 2% |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | October 15–19, 2018 | 606 | ± 4.2% | 48% | 46% | 1% | – | 6% |
Data Orbital Archived October 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | October 16–17, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 8% |
Change Research (D) | October 9–10, 2018 | 783 | – | 44% | 44% | – | – | 11% |
CBS News/YouGov | October 2–5, 2018 | 898 | – | 44% | 47% | – | 3% | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | October 1–2, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 47% | 41% | 4% | – | 8% |
FOX News | September 29 – October 2, 2018 | 716 LV | ± 3.5% | 45% | 47% | – | 2% | 6% |
806 RV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 45% | – | 2% | 8% | ||
Vox Populi Polling | September 29 – October 1, 2018 | 702 | ± 3.5% | 52% | 49% | – | – | – |
Suffolk University Archived October 3, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 27–30, 2018 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 2% | 0% | 11% |
Latino Decisions | September 10–25, 2018 | 463 LV | – | 41% | 47% | – | – | 11% |
610 RV | – | 37% | 43% | – | – | 17% | ||
Emerson College | September 19–21, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.4% | 39% | 45% | – | 4% | 13% |
NBC News/Marist College | September 16–20, 2018 | 564 LV | ± 4.7% | 43% | 45% | 6% | <1% | 6% |
45% | 48% | – | <1% | 7% | ||||
763 RV | ± 4.2% | 41% | 44% | 6% | <1% | 8% | ||
44% | 47% | – | <1% | 9% | ||||
CNN/SSRS | September 11–15, 2018 | 761 LV | ± 4.3% | 43% | 50% | – | 0% | 3% |
854 RV | ± 4.1% | 41% | 48% | – | 1% | 6% | ||
Ipsos | September 5–14, 2018 | 1,016 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | – | 4% | 5% |
TargetSmart (D) Archived September 19, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 8–13, 2018 | 800 | ± 4.0% | 46% | 51% | – | 1% | 3% |
FOX News | September 8–11, 2018 | 710 LV | ± 3.5% | 44% | 47% | – | 2% | 5% |
801 RV | ± 3.5% | 42% | 46% | – | 3% | 7% | ||
Gravis Marketing Archived September 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 5–7, 2018 | 882 | ± 3.3% | 49% | 48% | – | – | 3% |
OH Predictive Insights | September 5–6, 2018 | 597 | ± 4.0% | 49% | 46% | – | – | 6% |
Data Orbital Archived September 12, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | September 4–6, 2018 | 550 | ± 4.2% | 42% | 46% | – | 2%[202] | 9% |
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 44% | 48% | – | – | 8% |
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 39% | 43% | – | – | 19% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 44% | 48% | – | – | 7% |
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 32% | 40% | – | 9% | 20% |
CBS News/YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 869 LV | – | 37% | 45% | – | 7% | 10% |
998 RV | ± 3.7% | 34% | 41% | – | 8% | 14% | ||
NBC News/Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 49% | – | 2% | 11% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 51% | – | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 42% | 48% | – | – | 10% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[C] | March 15–16, 2018 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 41% | 46% | – | – | 13% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 45% | 46% | – | – | 9% |
Revily (R)[B] | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 29% | 33% | – | – | 37% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Kelli Ward (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 37% | 46% | – | 17% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 26% | 43% | 8% | 23% |
YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 867 LV | ± 3.7% | 38% | 46% | 6% | 9% |
996 RV | 35% | 43% | 7% | 14% | |||
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 38% | 48% | 2% | 12% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 51% | – | 6% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 50% | – | 10% |
OH Predictive Insights | November 9, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 43% | 46% | – | 11% |
Revily (R-Ward) | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 34% | 33% | – | 33% |
HighGround Public Affairs Archived November 8, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | October 23–26, 2017 | 500 | ± 4.4% | 27% | 34% | – | 39% |
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | August 18–19, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 31% | 32% | – | 38% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Joe Arpaio (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
OH Predictive Insights | July 23–24, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 36% | 54% | – | 10% |
Gravis Marketing Archived July 9, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 27 – July 2, 2018 | 925 | ± 3.2% | 33% | 52% | – | 14% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | June 11 – July 2, 2018 | 1,290 | ± 4.5% | 34% | 57% | – | 9% |
Emerson College Archived September 6, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 21–22, 2018 | 650 | ± 4.0% | 30% | 54% | 8% | 9% |
YouGov | June 19–22, 2018 | 868 LV | ± 3.7% | 29% | 49% | 13% | 8% |
996 RV | 28% | 45% | 13% | 11% | |||
Marist College | June 17–21, 2018 | 839 | ± 4.5% | 32% | 57% | 2% | 9% |
SurveyMonkey/Axios | April 2–23, 2018 | 1,667 | ± 4.0% | 32% | 61% | – | 7% |
OH Predictive Insights | April 10–11, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 33% | 59% | – | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Morning Consult Archived July 16, 2018, at the Wayback Machine | June 29 – July 9, 2018 | 1,641 | ± 2.0% | 35% | 42% | 23% |
Public Policy Polling (D-Protect Our Care) | March 15–16, 2018 | 547 | ± 4.2% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GBA Strategies | August 30 – September 7, 2017 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
HighGround Public Affairs Archived August 23, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | August 18–19, 2017 | 400 | ± 4.9% | 33% | 41% | 27% |
Public Policy Polling | May 13–15, 2016 | 896 | ± 3.3% | 38% | 36% | 27% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Jeff Flake (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling (D-Our Lives on the Line) Archived August 4, 2017, at the Wayback Machine | July 31 – August 1, 2017 | 704 | ± 2.0% | 31% | 47% | 22% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size |
Margin of error |
Matt Salmon (R) |
Kyrsten Sinema (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revily (R-Ward) | October 28–31, 2017 | 850 | ± 3.4% | 30% | 32% | 38% |
The race was too close to call on election day.[203] On November 7, 2018 (one day after the election), KGUN 9 reported that McSally held a narrow lead of 0.9%, with thousands of ballots still uncounted.[204] On November 8, Politico reported that Sinema had taken a 9,610-vote lead.[205] Due to the closeness of the vote count, the Associated Press and other major news outlets did not call the race for Sinema until November 12, 2018, six days after the election.[206] McSally conceded the race to Sinema that day.[207] The results were certified on December 3, 2018.[208]
This was the first Senate election won by a Democrat in Arizona since 1988.[207] Sinema is the first woman to be elected to the U.S. Senate from Arizona.[209]
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Kyrsten Sinema | 1,191,100 | 49.96% | +3.76% | |
Republican | Martha McSally | 1,135,200 | 47.61% | -1.62% | |
Green | Angela Green | 57,442 | 2.41% | N/A | |
Write-in | 566 | 0.02% | N/A | ||
Total votes | 2,384,308 | 100.00% | N/A | ||
Democratic gain from Republican |
By county
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Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic |
Sinema won 5 of the 9 congressional districts.[211]
District | Sinema | McSally | Representative |
---|---|---|---|
1st | 50.64% | 46.47% | Tom O'Halleran |
2nd | 52.63% | 45.23% | Ann Kirkpatrick |
3rd | 63.9% | 32.93% | Raúl Grijalva |
4th | 32.85% | 64.49% | Paul Gosar |
5th | 42.35% | 55.54% | Andy Biggs |
6th | 47.4% | 50.81% | David Schweikert |
7th | 75.43% | 21.19% | Ruben Gallego |
8th | 42.88% | 54.89% | Debbie Lesko |
9th | 61.37% | 36.41% | Greg Stanton |
Demographic subgroup | Sinema | McSally | No answer |
% of voters |
---|---|---|---|---|
Gender | ||||
Men | 49 | 49 | 2 | 47 |
Women | 51 | 47 | 2 | 53 |
Age | ||||
18–24 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
25–29 years old | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
30–39 years old | 57 | 39 | 4 | 17 |
40–49 years old | 50 | 48 | 2 | 17 |
50–64 years old | 44 | 55 | 1 | 29 |
65 and older | 51 | 48 | 1 | 29 |
Race | ||||
White | 45 | 53 | 2 | 75 |
Black | N/A | N/A | N/A | 2 |
Latino | 68 | 30 | 2 | 18 |
Asian | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Other | N/A | N/A | N/A | 3 |
Race and gender | ||||
White men | 42 | 55 | 3 | 34 |
White women | 47 | 52 | 1 | 41 |
Black men | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Black women | N/A | N/A | N/A | 1 |
Latino men | 66 | 32 | 2 | 9 |
Latina women | 70 | 28 | 2 | 9 |
Others | N/A | N/A | N/A | 4 |
Education | ||||
High school or less | 50 | 46 | 4 | 25 |
Some college education | 45 | 54 | 1 | 28 |
Associate Degree | 43 | 53 | 4 | 10 |
Bachelor's Degree | 52 | 47 | 3 | 23 |
Advanced degree | 62 | 37 | 1 | 14 |
Education and race | ||||
White college graduates | 55 | 45 | N/A | 27 |
White no college degree | 39 | 58 | 3 | 48 |
Non-white college graduates | 72 | 27 | 1 | 9 |
Non-white no college degree | 65 | 33 | 2 | 16 |
Whites by education and gender | ||||
White women with college degrees | 56 | 44 | N/A | 15 |
White women without college degrees | 42 | 56 | 2 | 26 |
White men with college degrees | 53 | 47 | N/A | 12 |
White men without college degrees | 35 | 61 | 4 | 22 |
Non-whites | 68 | 31 | 1 | 25 |
Military service | ||||
Veteran | 38 | 59 | 3 | 14 |
Non-veteran | 54 | 45 | 1 | 86 |
Income | ||||
Under $30,000 | 62 | 34 | 4 | 15 |
$30,000-$49,999 | 63 | 36 | 1 | 18 |
$50,000-$99,999 | 48 | 49 | 3 | 33 |
$100,000-$199,999 | 41 | 58 | 1 | 24 |
Over $200,000 | 44 | 56 | N/A | 9 |
Party ID | ||||
Democrats | 97 | 3 | N/A | 32 |
Republicans | 12 | 86 | 2 | 38 |
Independents | 50 | 47 | 3 | 31 |
Party by gender | ||||
Democratic men | 94 | 6 | N/A | 14 |
Democratic women | 99 | 1 | N/A | 17 |
Republican men | 6 | 91 | 3 | 15 |
Republican women | 16 | 83 | 1 | 23 |
Independent men | 50 | 47 | 3 | 18 |
Independent women | 50 | 47 | 3 | 13 |
Ideology | ||||
Liberals | 94 | 6 | N/A | 22 |
Moderates | 63 | 35 | 2 | 38 |
Conservatives | 14 | 84 | 2 | 40 |
First-time midterm election voter | ||||
Yes | 53 | 44 | 3 | 15 |
No | 48 | 50 | 2 | 85 |
Most important issue facing the country | ||||
Health care | 77 | 20 | 3 | 42 |
Immigration | 16 | 83 | 1 | 31 |
Economy | 39 | 60 | 1 | 18 |
Gun policy | N/A | N/A | N/A | 7 |
Area type | ||||
Urban | 60 | 39 | 1 | 43 |
Suburban | 44 | 54 | 2 | 51 |
Rural | N/A | N/A | N/A | 6 |
Source: CNN[212] |
On December 18, 2018, Governor Doug Ducey appointed McSally to fill Arizona's other Senate seat. The seat was left vacant after the resignation of Jon Kyl, who himself had been appointed following the August 25, 2018 death of John McCain.[213] Both Sinema and McSally were sworn in with the 116th United States Congress on January 3, 2019,[214] marking the first time in history that Arizona was represented by two women in the United States Senate and making Arizona the second state to be represented by two women from different parties.[citation needed] Sinema and McSally are only the second pair of senators from the same state in history to serve together after running against each other the previous year;[citation needed] the first such instance occurred in Oregon in 1996–1997.[215] Ducey stipulated that Sinema would be sworn in first, making her the senior senator; this way, he said, the decision of Arizona's voters would be respected.[citation needed]
Under Arizona law, McSally's appointment was only valid for the duration of the 116th Congress[citation needed] and a special election for her seat was held in November 2020 to determine who would finish the remainder of McCain's unexpired term (which expired in 2023). McSally was defeated by Democrat Mark Kelly in that special election.[216][217]