2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states and the District of Columbia participated.[2] New Hampshire voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominees, incumbent President Donald Trump and Vice President Mike Pence, against the Democratic Party's nominees, former Vice President Joe Biden and his running mate, Senator Kamala Harris. New Hampshire has four electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout73.5% [1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 424,921 365,654
Percentage 52.71% 45.36%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

New Hampshire is by far the most fiscally conservative state in New England, and its population has a strong disdain for taxes, historically giving Republicans an edge in its state office elections. However, like the rest of the region, it is very liberal on social issues like abortion and gay rights, and thus the Democratic Party has dominated in its federal elections in recent years. Although the state came extremely close to voting for Trump in 2016, polls throughout the 2020 campaign showed a clear Biden lead, and prior to election day, all 14 news organizations considered New Hampshire a state that Biden was favored to win.

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden prevailed in the state by garnering the votes of 58% of white women, and 69% of unmarried women.[4] Biden carried voters prioritizing healthcare policy with 73% campaigning on protecting coverage for pre-existing conditions,[4] a resonant issue in a state plagued by the opioid crisis.

Biden flipped the counties of Carroll, Hillsborough, Rockingham, and Sullivan, of which Hillsborough (which houses the state's largest city of Manchester) and Sullivan had voted for Barack Obama twice before switching to Trump in 2016, then flipping back into the Democratic column in 2020. Biden also significantly expanded Hillary Clinton's 2016 lead of 2,736 votes (0.37%) to 59,267 votes (7.35%).

Corresponding Democratic victories in the Senate election and both House elections reaffirmed the Democrats' strength in what used to be a heavily contested battleground. Contrary to earlier projections however, New Hampshire Republicans took control of both the executive and legislative branches of the New Hampshire government. Republicans flipped the previously Democrat-held New Hampshire state Senate and House of Representatives. Republicans also gained control of the state’s Executive Council, and Republican Gov. Chris Sununu was reelected for a third term with 65% of the vote.[5] Biden's best margin was in the socially liberal Connecticut River Valley, which had overwhelmingly favored Bernie Sanders in the Democratic primary, while Trump's strength came in the rural Great North Woods Region. Biden was the first Democrat to ever win the White House without Coös County.

Primary elections edit

The New Hampshire primary, traditionally the first, was held on February 11, 2020, roughly a week after the Iowa caucuses.[6]

Republican primary edit

The New Hampshire Republican primary took place on February 11, 2020. Incumbent president Donald Trump won the Republican primary with 85.6 percent of the vote, clinching all of the state's 22 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[7] Typically, the top candidates of the other major party receive a large number of write-in votes.

 
County won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—85–90%
  Trump—80–85%
 
Congressional district won by these popular vote results:
  Trump—80–85%
2020 New Hampshire Republican primary[8][9]
Candidate Votes % Estimated
delegates
Donald Trump (incumbent) 129,734 84.42 22
Bill Weld 13,844 9.01 0
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) 838 0.55 0
Mitt Romney (write-in) 632 0.41 0
Rocky De La Fuente 148 0.10 0
Robert Ardini 77 0.05 0
Bob Ely 68 0.04 0
Zoltan Istvan 56 0.04 0
Others / Write-in 2,339 1.52 0
Pete Buttigieg (write-in Democratic) 1,136 0.74 0
Amy Klobuchar (write-in Democratic) 1,076 0.70 0
Mike Bloomberg (write-in Democratic) 801 0.52 0
Bernie Sanders (write-in Democratic) 753 0.49 0
Tulsi Gabbard (write-in Democratic) 369 0.24 0
Joe Biden (write-in Democratic) 330 0.21 0
Tom Steyer (write-in Democratic) 191 0.12 0
Andrew Yang (write-in Democratic) 162 0.11 0
Elizabeth Warren (write-in Democratic) 157 0.10 0
Other write-in Democrats 963 0.63 0
Total 153,674 100% 22

Democratic primary edit

Bernie Sanders won the Democratic primary with 25.6 percent of the vote, ahead of second-place Pete Buttigieg, who received 24.3 percent of the vote. Both Sanders and Buttigieg received nine delegates to the 2020 Democratic National Convention. Amy Klobuchar finished in third place with 19.7 percent of the vote and earned six delegates. Elizabeth Warren and Joe Biden finished in fourth and fifth place, respectively, and each received zero delegates.[10]

 
Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—<30%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Buttigieg—<30%
 
Popular vote share by congressional district
  Sanders—25–30%
2020 New Hampshire Democratic presidential primary[11][12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13][14]
Bernie Sanders 76,384 25.60 9
Pete Buttigieg 72,454 24.28 9
Amy Klobuchar 58,714 19.68 6
Elizabeth Warren 27,429 9.19
Joe Biden 24,944 8.36
Tom Steyer 10,732 3.60
Tulsi Gabbard 9,755 3.27
Andrew Yang 8,312 2.79
Michael Bloomberg (write-in)[12][15] 4,675 1.57
Deval Patrick 1,271 0.43
Michael Bennet 952 0.32
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 157 0.05
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) 152 0.05
Kamala Harris (withdrawn) 129 0.04
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 99 0.03
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 83 0.03
John Delaney (withdrawn) 83 0.03
Steve Bullock (withdrawn) 64 0.02
Henry Hewes 43 0.01
Ben Gleib (withdrawn) 31 0.01
Other candidates / Write-in [a]665 0.22
Donald Trump (write-in Republican)[12] 1,217 0.41
Bill Weld (write-in Republican)[12] 17 0.01
Mitt Romney (write-in Republican)[12] 10 0.00
Other write-in Republicans 5 0.00
Total 298,377 100% 24

Libertarian primary edit

2020 New Hampshire Libertarian presidential primary
 
January 11, 2020 2024 →
IA →
       
Candidate Vermin Supreme Kim Ruff Jo Jorgensen
Home state Massachusetts Arizona South Carolina
Popular vote 26 22 17
Percentage 17.3% 14.7% 11.3%

       
Candidate None of the above Dan Behrman Jacob Hornberger
(write-in)
Home state N/A Nevada Virginia
Popular vote 13 13 9
Percentage 8.7% 8.7% 6.0%

   
Candidate Sam Robb
Home state Pennsylvania
Popular vote 8
Percentage 5.3%

Mail-in ballots were due by January 11, at the state convention. The primary was tabulated using Bucklin voting. Percentages shown are percentage of ballots cast.[16][17]

2020 New Hampshire Libertarian presidential primary[18][19]
Candidate 1st 2nd 3rd Total Percentage
Vermin Supreme 10 3 13 26 17.3%
Kim Ruff 6 9 7 22 14.7%
Jo Jorgensen 5 8 4 17 11.3%
None of the Above (NOTA) 4 6 3 13 8.7%
Dan "Taxation Is Theft" Behrman 0 6 7 13 8.7%
Jacob Hornberger (write-in) 9 0 0 9 6.0%
Sam Robb 1 2 5 8 5.3%
Mark Whitney (write-in) 4 0 2 6 4.0%
Arvin Vohra 1 0 5 6 4.0%
Ken Armstrong 0 2 3 5 3.3%
Lincoln Chafee (write-in) 1 2 1 4 2.7%
Justin Amash (write-in) 1 1 1 3 2.0%
Keenan Wallace Dunham 0 0 2 2 1.3%
Max Abramson 1 0 0 1 nil
Straw Poll (write-in) 1 0 0 1 nil
Joe Bishop-Henchman (write-in) 0 0 1 1 nil
Thomas Knapp (write-in) 0 0 1 1 nil
Adam Kokesh (write-in) 0 0 1 1 nil
Nicholas Sarwark (write-in) 0 0 1 1 nil
Exhausted Ballots/Undervotes 0 5 5 10
Total 44 44 62 150
2020 New Hampshire Libertarian vice presidential primary[18][19]
Candidate 1st 2nd Total Percentage
John Phillips 15 6 21 63.6%
None of the Above 9 6 15 45.5%
Spike Cohen (write-in) 2 0 2 6.1%
Larry Sharpe (write-in) 2 0 2 6.1%
Ron Paul (write-in) 1 1 2 6.1%
Darryl W Perry (write-in) 1 0 1 3.0%
Straw Poll (write-in) 1 0 1 3.0%
Nicolas Sarwark (write-in) 1 0 1 3.0%
Mark Whitney (write-in) 1 0 1 3.0%
Exhausted Ballots/Undervotes 11 20 31
Total 44 33 77

General election edit

Final predictions edit

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[20] Lean D
Inside Elections[21] Likely D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[22] Likely D
Politico[23] Lean D
RCP[24] Lean D
Niskanen[25] Safe D
CNN[26] Lean D
The Economist[27] Likely D
CBS News[28] Lean D
270towin[29] Lean D
ABC News[30] Lean D
NPR[31] Likely D
NBC News[32] Lean D
538[33] Likely D

Polling edit

Graphical summary edit

Aggregate polls edit

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 14–29, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.4% 42.4% 4.2% Biden +11.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 53.9% 42.8% 3.3% Biden +11.1
Average 53.7% 42.6% 3.8% Biden +11.1

Polls edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 1,013 (LV) ± 4.5% 45%[d] 54% -
American Research Group Oct 26–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 39% 58% 1% 2%
University of New Hampshire Oct 24–28, 2020 864 (LV) ± 3.3% 45% 53% 1% 1% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,791 (LV) 44% 55% -
Saint Anselm College Oct 23–26, 2020 1,018 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 52% 2% 2%
YouGov/UMass Amherst Oct 16–26, 2020 757 (LV) ± 4.5% 43% 53% 2% 1%[e] 2%
University of New Hampshire Oct 9–12, 2020 899 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 55% 0% 0%[f] 2%
Suffolk University/Boston Globe Oct 8–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 41% 51% 2% 3%[g] 5%
Saint Anselm College Oct 1–4, 2020 1,147 (LV) ± 2.9% 41% 53% - 4%[h] 2%
Emerson College Sep 30 – Oct 1, 2020 700 (LV) ± 3.6% 45%[i] 53% - 2%[j]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 637 (LV) 43% 55% - 2%
American Research Group Sep 25–28, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4% 44% 53% 1% 2%
University of New Hampshire Sep 24–28, 2020 972 (LV) ± 3.1% 44% 53% 1% 0%[f] 3%
Pulse Opinion Research/Center for American Greatness[A] Sep 23–25, 2020 850 (LV) ± 4% 42%[i] 56% - 1%[k] 1%
YouGov/UMass Lowell Sep 17–25, 2020 657 (LV) ± 4.6% 44%[l] 52% 1% 2%[m] 1%
44%[n] 53% - 0%[f] 1%
Siena College/NYT Upshot Sep 8–11, 2020 445 (LV) ± 5.5% 42% 45% 4% 2%[o] 7%[p]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 444 (LV) 39% 60% - 1%
Saint Anselm College Aug 15–17, 2020 1,042 (RV) ± 3.0% 43% 51% - 4%[h] 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 574 (LV) 39% 60% - 2%
University of New Hampshire Jul 16–28, 2020 1,893 (LV) ± 2.3% 40% 53% - 4%[q] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 191 (LV) 39% 61% - 1%
University of New Hampshire Jun 18–22, 2020 936 (LV) 39% 52% - 6%[r] 3%
Saint Anselm College Jun 13–16, 2020 1,072 (RV) ± 3% 42% 49% - 5% 3%
University of New Hampshire May 14–18, 2020 790 (LV) 46% 44% - 5%[s] 5%
Saint Anselm College Apr 23–27, 2020 820 (RV) ± 3.4% 42% 50% - 2% 7%
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 44% - 8%[t] 2%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 46% 44% - 11%
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal[1] Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 49%[u] 45% - [v] [v]
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 51% - 2% 5%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 52% -
547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% - 13%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 43% 51% - 6%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 55% -
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 40% 53% - 7%
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55% -
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 39% 53% - 8%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 571 (LV) ± 4.1% 46% 46% 6% 1%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 47% 44% 9%
McLaughlin & Associates/NH Journal[2] Feb 4–5, 2020 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 48%[u] 45% [v] [v]
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 43% 51% 2% 4%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 52%
547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 49% 9%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 49% 6%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 48% 53%
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 41% 51% 8%
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 55%
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% 5%
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 45% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 46.8% 40.5% 12.7%
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 44% 48% 2% 5%
Inside Sources Jan 16–21, 2020 593 (RV) 41% 54% 5%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 49%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 43% 47% 10%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 46% 47% 7%
Emerson College Sep 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 51% 49%
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 49% 7%
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52%
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 54% 5%
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 50% 42% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 561 (LV) ± 4.1% 47% 33% 16% 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttegieg (D)
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire Feb 19–25, 2020 569 (LV) ± 4.1% 42% 48% 7% 3%
AtlasIntel Feb 8–10, 2020 1,100 (RV) ± 3% 45.3% 46.1% 8.6%
Marist College/NBC News Jan 20–23, 2020 2,223 (RV) ± 2.6% 41% 51% 1% 6%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 41% 48%
Emerson College Nov 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 41% 48% 11%
Saint Anselm College Nov 13–18, 2019 512 (RV) ± 4.3% 42% 49% 9%
Gravis Marketing Aug 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 42% 49% 9%

Donald Trump vs. Andrew Yang

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Andrew
Yang (D)
Undecided
Emerson College November 23–26, 2019 637 (RV) ± 3.8% 51% 49%
Emerson College November 23–26, 2019 547 (RV) ± 4.1% 42% 46% 12%
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 46% 54%

Donald Trump vs. Cory Booker

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Cory
Booker (D)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 ± 3.2% 49% 51%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Emerson College September 6–9, 2019 1,041 (RV) ± 3.0% 49% 51%
Gravis Marketing August 2–6, 2019 505 (RV) ± 4.4% 44% 47% 9%
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 48% 52%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Undecided
Praecones Analytica Jan 16–21, 2019 593 (RV) ± 5.3% 41% 48% 12%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump, Bernie Sanders, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 42% 48% 10%

with Donald Trump, Elizabeth Warren, and Howard Schultz

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Howard
Schultz (I)
Undecided
Emerson College Archived February 23, 2019, at the Wayback Machine Feb 21–22, 2019 910 (RV) ± 3.2% 45% 44% 12%

with John Kasich and Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Undecided
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 45% 46% 8%

with John Kasich and Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
John
Kasich (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
American Research Group Mar 21–27, 2018 1,365 (RV) ± 3.0% 52% 37% 11%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Other Undecided
RKM Research and Communications Inc./Boston Herald/FPU/NBC10[3] Jan 29-Feb 1, 2020 892 (V) 36% 49% 9%[w] 7%
Praecones Analytica Aug 13–15, 2018 626 (RV) ± 5.4% 38% 49% 13%

with Donald Trump, generic Democrat, and generic third party

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Generic
third party
Undecided
Suffolk University Apr 25–28, 2019 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 40% 43% 6% 11%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Other Undecided
University of New Hampshire/CNN Jan 15–23, 2020 1,169 (A) ± 2.9% 46% 49%[x] 2%[y] 2%

Results edit

2020 United States presidential election in New Hampshire[34][35]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
424,937 52.78% +5.16%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
365,660 45.42% −1.83%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
13,236 1.64% −2.49%
Green Howie Hawkins (write-in)
Angela Walker (write-in)
217 0.03% −0.84%
Independent Bernie Sanders (write-in) 192 0.02%
Republican Mitt Romney (write-in) 170 0.02%
Democratic Tulsi Gabbard (write-in) 142 0.02%
Independent Kanye West (write-in) 82 0.01%
Republican John Kasich (write-in) 67 0.01%
Democratic Andrew Yang (write-in) 58 0.01%
Republican Mike Pence (write-in) 56 0.01%
Democratic Pete Buttigieg (write-in) 47 0.01%
Republican Chris Sununu (write-in) 46 0.01%
Republican Bill Weld (write-in) 23 0.00%
Libertarian Vermin Supreme (write-in) 22 0.00%
Democratic Amy Klobuchar (write-in) 19 0.00%
Democratic Andrew Cuomo (write-in) 14 0.00%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) 14 0.00%
Libertarian Ron Paul (write-in) 13 0.00%
Republican Condoleezza Rice (write-in) 12 0.00%
Republican Mike Huckabee (write-in) 10 0.00%
Democratic Michelle Obama (write-in) 10 0.00%
American Solidarity Brian T. Carroll (write-in) <10 0.00%
Independent Brock Pierce (write-in) <10 0.00%
Independent Albert Raley (write-in) <10 0.00%
Independent Jade Simmons (write-in) <10 0.00%
Constitution Sheila Tittle (write-in) <10 0.00%
Total votes 805,058 100.00%

By county edit

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Belknap 16,894 43.90% 20,899 54.31% 686 1.79% -4,005 -10.41% 38,479
Carroll 16,649 50.00% 16,150 48.50% 498 1.50% 499 1.50% 33,297
Cheshire 25,522 57.52% 17,898 40.34% 950 2.14% 7,624 17.18% 44,370
Coos 7,640 46.18% 8,617 52.09% 287 1.73% -977 -5.91% 16,544
Grafton 33,180 61.29% 19,905 36.77% 1,047 1.94% 13,275 24.52% 54,132
Hillsborough 122,344 52.81% 104,625 45.16% 4,690 2.03% 17,719 7.65% 231,659
Merrimack 48,533 53.85% 39,711 44.06% 1,889 2.09% 8,822 9.79% 90,133
Rockingham 100,064 50.20% 95,858 48.09% 3,420 1.71% 4,206 2.11% 199,342
Strafford 41,721 56.53% 30,489 41.31% 1,595 2.16% 11,232 15.22% 73,805
Sullivan 12,390 50.69% 11,508 47.08% 546 2.23% 882 3.61% 24,444
Totals 424,937 52.71% 365,660 45.36% 15,608 1.93% 59,277 7.35% 806,205
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 52.2% 46.2% Chris Pappas
2nd 53.5% 44.8% Annie Kuster

Analysis edit

Edison exit polls edit

2020 presidential election in New Hampshire by demographic subgroup (Edison exit polling)[36][37]
Demographic subgroup Biden Trump % of

total vote

Total vote 52.71 45.36 100
Ideology
Liberals 93 7 24
Moderates 64 33 44
Conservatives 9 91 32
Party
Democrats 94 6 23
Republicans 10 90 31
Independents 62 35 46
Gender
Men 47 52 47
Women 58 40 53
Race/ethnicity
White 52 46 92
Non-white 56 41 8
Age
18–24 years old 50 48 9
25–29 years old 58 35 8
30–39 years old 54 42 14
40–49 years old 50 49 15
50–64 years old 51 49 31
65 and older 56 43 23
Sexual orientation
LGBT 7
Not LGBT 50 48 93
Education
High school or less 43 53 20
Some college education 45 54 26
Associate's degree 44 54 13
Bachelor's degree 63 36 25
Postgraduate degree 68 30 17
Income
Under $30,000 71 28 12
$30,000–49,999 45 51 18
$50,000–99,999 54 44 30
Over $100,000 53 46 40
Issue regarded as most important
Racial inequality 87 10 14
Coronavirus 95 5 21
Economy 12 87 33
Crime and safety 15 83 10
Health care 89 8 13
Region
Seacoast 60 38 17
Manchester/Concord 57 42 24
Southwest/Connecticut Valley 57 41 20
Southeast 44 54 21
North 47 52 18
Area type
Urban 67 31 9
Suburban 50 48 60
Rural 54 45 31
Family's financial situation today
Better than four years ago 19 80 43
Worse than four years ago 82 12 19
About the same 79 20 38

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Including 157 write-in votes
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Another candidate" with 1%
  6. ^ a b c "Another candidate" with 0%
  7. ^ "Refused" with 2%; "Other" with 1%
  8. ^ a b "Someone else" with 4%
  9. ^ a b With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Some other candidate" with 1%
  12. ^ Standard VI response
  13. ^ Hawkins (G) with 2%; "Another candidate" with 0%
  14. ^ With only Biden, Trump and "Another candidate" as options
  15. ^ "Someone else" and would not vote with 1%
  16. ^ Includes "Refused"
  17. ^ "Another candidate" with 4%
  18. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
  19. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  20. ^ "Another candidate" with 8%
  21. ^ a b Data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  22. ^ a b c d Data not yet released
  23. ^ "Someone else" with 9%
  24. ^ Would vote for a candidate other than Trump
  25. ^ Would not vote with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ The Center for American Greatness is a pro-Trump organization

References edit

  1. ^ DiStaso, John (November 6, 2020). "More than 73 percent of NH's voting age population cast ballots, resulting in record turnout". WMUR. Retrieved February 16, 2021.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ a b "New Hampshire Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "Republicans unexpectedly gain control of N.H. State government".
  6. ^ Alex Seitz-Wald (December 9, 2018). "2020 Democratic primary: California and Texas look to become the new Iowa and New Hampshire". NBC News. Retrieved December 10, 2018.
  7. ^ Steve Peoples; Kathleen Ronayne; Hunter Woodall (February 11, 2020). "President Trump wins GOP primary with more votes than any incumbent president in history". KRCR. Associated Press.
  8. ^ "2020 Presidential Primary - Republican Write-Ins - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
  9. ^ "Content - NHSOS". sos.nh.gov. Retrieved February 17, 2020.
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  12. ^ a b c d e "2020 Presidential Primary - Democratic Write-Ins". New Hampshire Secretary of State. March 23, 2020. Retrieved March 29, 2022.
  13. ^ "Live Results: New Hampshire Primary". The New York Times. February 11, 2020. Archived from the original on February 14, 2020. Retrieved February 12, 2020.
  14. ^ "New Hampshire Democratic Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. March 31, 2019. Archived from the original on April 12, 2019. Retrieved April 12, 2019.
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  16. ^ "Results – 2020 Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 14, 2020. Archived from the original on February 27, 2020. Retrieved January 14, 2020.
  17. ^ Dance, George J. (January 14, 2020). "Strange doings in New Hampshire". The Nolan Chart. Archived from the original on January 15, 2020. Retrieved January 14, 2020.
  18. ^ a b "Congrats to Vermin Supreme for winning the LPNH Presidential Preference Primary!". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 11, 2020. Retrieved January 11, 2020 – via Facebook.com.
  19. ^ a b "Results – 2020 Libertarian Presidential Preference Primary". Libertarian Party of New Hampshire. January 14, 2020. Archived from the original on February 27, 2020. Retrieved January 15, 2020.
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  24. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  25. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  26. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  27. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  30. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  31. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  32. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  33. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  34. ^ "President and Vice-President of the United States - excel". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  35. ^ "President Write-ins - pdf". sos.nh.gov/. Retrieved November 24, 2020.
  36. ^ "New Hampshire 2020 President exit polls". www.cnn.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.
  37. ^ "New Hampshire Exit Polls: How Different Groups Voted". www.nytimes.com. Retrieved December 28, 2020.

Further reading edit

External links edit