2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

Summary

2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania

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Turnout%
  Donald Trump official portrait (cropped).jpg Joe Biden 2013.jpg
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence TBA

Incumbent President

Donald Trump
Republican



The 2020 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States elections in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Pennsylvania voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 20 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

Incumbent President Donald Trump won the state in 2016, but as a result of worse than expected results for Republicans during the 2018 midterms, Pennsylvania is expected to be close during the 2020 election.[3]

By the time that the primary elections were held in the state on June 2, 2020, incumbent President Donald Trump was already the Republican Party's presumptive nominee, being the only viable declared major candidate left. On the Democratic Party's side, Vice President Joe Biden became the presumptive nominee after Senator Bernie Sanders, his last competitor, withdrew on April 8, 2020. Bob Casey Jr., U.S. Senator from Pennsylvania since 2007, had also expressed interest in running.[4] However, in January 2019, he announced he would not be running.[5]

Primary elections

The primary elections were originally scheduled for April 28, 2020, also originally joining several northeastern states in holding primaries on the same date, including Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland, New York, and Rhode Island.[6] On March 26, Pennsylvania joined several other states in moving its primary to June 2 due to the COVID-19 pandemic.[7]

Republican primary

Even though the Republican National Committee mailed Pennsylvania voters encouraging mail-in voting, describing it as a "convenient and secure” option, most Republicans expressed opposition to the prospect. Earlier, the Republican-controlled House blocked a proposal to mail every Pennsylvanian a mail-in ballot application. This was in-response to President Trump's skepticism of the practice, expressing concern mail-in voting may result in voter fraud that would potentially benefit the Democratic Party.[8]

2020 Pennsylvania Republican primary[9]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[10]
Donald Trump 1,043,311 93.3% 34
Bill Weld 68,715 5.1% 0
Rocky De La Fuente (withdrawn) 20,187 1.6% 0
Total 1,132,213 100% 34

Trump was declared the winner in the Republican primary, and received all of the state's 34 pledged delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention (the state also has 54 unpledged delegates).[10]

Democratic primary

2020 Pennsylvania Democratic presidential primary[11]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[12]
Joe Biden 1,264,624 79.26% 151
Bernie Sanders (suspended) 287,834 18.04% 34
Tulsi Gabbard (withdrawn) 43,050 2.70% 0
Total 1,595,508 100% 185 (of 186)

Green Caucus

The Green Caucus will be held during the month of April 2020.

General election

Predictions

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Tossup June 19, 2020
Inside Elections[14] Tilt D (flip) April 3, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Lean D (flip) June 25, 2020
Politico[16] Tossup April 19, 2020
RCP[17] Tossup June 22, 2020
Niskanen[18] Lean D (flip) March 24, 2020
CNN[19] Tossup June 25, 2020
JHK Forecasts[20] Likely D (flip) June 27, 2020

Polling

Aggregate polls

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Source of poll aggregation Dates administered Dates updated Joe Biden Donald Trump Other/Undecided[a] Margin
270 to Win June 12, 2020 – June 16, 2020 June 25, 2020 49.5% 43.0% 7.5% Biden + 6.5
Real Clear Politics April 21, 2020 – June 16, 2020 June 25, 2020 49.3% 43.0% 7.7% Biden + 6.3
FiveThirtyEight Until June 16, 2020 June 25, 2020 50.6% 42.5% 6.9% Biden + 8.1

Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Other Undecided
Change Research/CNBC Jun 26-28, 2020 ~783 (LV)[c] 44% 50%
Susquehanna Polling/Fox 43 Jun 15-23, 2020 715 (LV) 41% 46%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Jun 8-16, 2020 651 (RV) ± 4.2% 40% 50% 3%[d] 6%
Change Research/CNBC Jun 12-14, 2020 491 (LV)[e] 46% 49% 3%[f]
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Jun 8-11, 2020 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 42% 54% 1%[g] 4%
Change Research/CNBC May 29-31, 2020 579 (LV)[h] 50% 46% 2% 2%
Redfield & Wilton Strategies May 10-14, 2020 963 (LV) ± 3.2% 39% 48% 2%[i] 11%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) May 9-13, 2020 600 (LV) ± 3.0% 51% 46% 4%
Harper Polling (R) Apr 21–26, 2020 644 (LV) ± 3.9% 43% 49% 8%
Public Policy Polling[A] April 20–21, 2020 1,251 (RV) 44% 51% 5%
Fox News April 18–21, 2020 803 (RV) ± 3.5 % 42% 50%
Ipsos April 15–20, 2020 578 (RV) ± 5.0% 40% 46%
Suquehanna Research/Fox 43 Apr 14-20, 2020 693 (LV) 42% 48%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) April 16-18, 2020 600 (RV) ± 3.0% 47% 47%
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes March 17–25, 2020 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 47% 45% 9%
Change Research Mar 21–23, 2020 510 (LV) 50% 47% 4%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 19–21, 2020 600 (RV) 47% 45%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6–8, 2020 725 (RV) 40% 46% 5%[j] 8%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 45% 44%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 47% 47% 2% 4%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ± 4.0 % 45% 46%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ± 3.4 % 42% 50% 6%[k] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6-18, 2020 500 (RV) 42% 47% 11%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 8%[l] 6%[m]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call November 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 43% 52% 4% 2%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 46%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 ± 4.2% 41% 45% 14%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 42% 43% 15%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 42% 53% 1% 3%
WPA Intelligence Apr 27–30, 2019 200 ± 6.9% 45% 46% 8%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 45% 55%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 ± 4.0% 43% 50% 4%

Four-way race

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Joe
Biden (D)
Jo
Jorgensen (L)
Howie
Hawkins (G)
Other Undecided
Redfield & Whilton Strategies Jun 14-16, 2020 1,125 (LV) ± 2.92% 39% 49% 1% 1% 1% 9%
Former candidates

Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 48% 45% 2% 5%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 48% 6%[n] 3%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6-18, 2020 500 (RV) 39% 48% 13%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 45% 41% 9%[o] 5%

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 45% 3% 5%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6-18, 2020 500 (RV) 40% 46% 14%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 44% 44%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 43% 47% 8%[p] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 46% 40% 7%[q] 7%[r]
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 45% 32% 23%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 44% 45% 4% 6%

Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 45% 45% 3% 5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 49% 51%

Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 45% 44% 3% 8%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 43% 43%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 42% 49% 6%[s] 4%

Donald Trump vs. Beto O'Rourke

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Beto
O'Rourke (D)
Other Undecided
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 46% 44% 4% 5%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 49% 51%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 ± 4.0% 47% 40% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes March 17–25, 2020 973 (RV) ± 3.9% 48% 42% 10%
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) Mar 19–21, 2020 600 (RV) 49% 43%
YouGov/Yahoo News Mar 6-8, 2020 725 (RV) 41% 43% 6%[t] 10%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 5–7, 2020 533 (RV) ± 5.3 % 46% 42%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 46% 49% 3% 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 47%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 48% 5%[u] 1%
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6-18, 2020 500 (RV) 43% 45% 12%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 37% 8%[v] 6%[w]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call November 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 ± 4.4% 45% 44%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 ± 4.2% 42% 44% 14%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 44% 41% 15%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 43% 50% 2% 3%
Tulchin Research (D)[B] Apr 14–18, 2019 400 ± 4.9% 43% 51%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 45% 55%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Mar 19–21, 2019 632 ± 4.0% 44% 44% 8%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call Feb 12–20, 2020 424 (RV) ± 5.5 % 47% 47% 4% 3%
YouGov Feb 11–20, 2020 1,171 (RV) ±4.0% 45% 45%
Quinnipiac University Feb 12–18, 2020 849 (RV) ±3.4% 44% 47% 8%[x] 2%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus December 3–5, 2019 598 (LV) ± 4.3% 47% 40% 8%[y] 5%[z]
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call November 4–9, 2019 410 (RV) ± 6.0% 45% 50% 4% 1%
NYT Upshot/Siena College Oct 13–25, 2019 661 ± 4.4% 46% 44%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Sep 7–9, 2019 527 ± 4.2% 41% 43% 16%
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus Jun 11–13, 2019 565 ± 4.2% 45% 34% 21%
Quinnipiac University May 9–14, 2019 978 ± 4.2% 44% 47% 3% 4%
Emerson College Mar 26–28, 2019 808 ± 3.4% 48% 52%
Zogby Analytics Aug 17–23, 2017 813 ± 3.4% 38% 46% 16%
Hypothetical polling

with Donald Trump and Generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat (D)
Undecided
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Mar 17-25, 2020 997 (RV) ± 3.7% 48.6%[aa] 49.2% 2.1%[ab]
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute Feb 6-18, 2020 500 (RV) 38% 51% 11%
Baldwin Wallace University/Oakland University/Ohio Northern University Jan 8-20, 2020 1,037 (RV) ± 3.2% 39.7%[ac] 49.5% 10.7%
KFF/Cook Political Report Sep 23 - Oct 15, 2019 752 (RV) ± 4% 29% 40% 22%

with Donald Trump and Generic Opponent

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Opponent
Undecided
F&M/PoliticsPA Mar 18-24, 2019 540 (RV) ± 5.5% 36% 61%[ad] 4%

See also

Notes

Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
  2. ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
Additional candidates
  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ About 21% of a full battleground states sample of 3,729 likely voters
  4. ^ "Another candidate" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  5. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  6. ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
  7. ^ "Refused" with 1%
  8. ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
  9. ^ "Third party/write-in" with 2%
  10. ^ "Other" with 2%; would not vote with 3%
  11. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
  12. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 2%
  13. ^ Includes "refused"
  14. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
  15. ^ A third party candidate with 6%; will not vote with 3%
  16. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
  17. ^ A third party candidate with 4%; will not vote with 3%
  18. ^ Includes "refused"
  19. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 5%
  20. ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
  21. ^ "Someone else" with 1%; would not vote with 4%
  22. ^ A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
  23. ^ Includes "refused"
  24. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 6%
  25. ^ A third party candidate with 5%; will not vote with 3%
  26. ^ Includes "refused"
  27. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  28. ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.4%; "unsure" with 0.7%
  29. ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
  30. ^ 61% "time for a change" as opposed to "Trump has done a good enough job to deserve re-election"

References

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ Taylor, Jessica (November 9, 2018). "What 2018 Elections Could Tell Us About The 2020 Presidential Map". National Public Radio. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Caldwell, Leigh Ann (November 15, 2018). "Pennsylvania Senator Bob Casey on a presidential bid: 'We'll see'". NBC News. Retrieved November 15, 2018.
  5. ^ Greenwood, Max. "Sen. Casey says he won't run for president in 2020". The Hill. Retrieved 4 February 2019.
  6. ^ Thompson, Steve; Nirappil, Fenit (February 6, 2019). "D.C. is slated to vote last in 2020 Democratic primaries. That might change". The Washington Post. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  7. ^ "Pennsylvania just postponed its primary due to coronavirus. Here's what it means for voters and 2020 campaigns". The Philadelphia Inquirer. March 27, 2020.
  8. ^ "Do Republicans oppose vote by mail? In Pennsylvania, it's not that simple". The Philadelphia Inquirer. April 13, 2020.
  9. ^ "Pennsylvania Presidential Republican Primary Election Results". The New York Times. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  10. ^ a b "Pennsylvania Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  11. ^ "Pennsylvania Elections - Official Results". Pennsylvania Secretary of State. Retrieved June 9, 2020.
  12. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Pennsylvania Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved 2 July 2020.
  13. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  14. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  15. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
  16. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  17. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  18. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  19. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
  20. ^ "JHK Forecasts » 2020 President". JHK Forecasts. Retrieved 2020-06-27.