2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] South Dakota voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. South Dakota has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout73.88%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Donald Trump Joe Biden
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Florida Delaware
Running mate Mike Pence Kamala Harris
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 261,043 150,471
Percentage 61.77% 35.61%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Trump carried South Dakota by 61.8%–35.6%, or a margin of 26.2%. Biden performed four points better than Hillary Clinton in 2016. Prior to the election, all 12 news organizations considered this a state Trump would win, or a safe red state. This was Libertarian Jo Jorgensen’s best state, with 2.63% of the vote.

Primary elections edit

The primary elections were held on June 2, 2020.

Republican primary edit

Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus received all of the state's 29 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[4]

Democratic primary edit

2020 South Dakota Democratic presidential primary[5]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[6]
Joe Biden 40,800 77.48 13
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 11,861 22.52 3
Total 52,661 100% 16

Libertarian nominee edit

Prior to the South Dakota primaries, the 2020 Libertarian National Convention was held on May 22–24, 2020, selecting Jo Jorgensen, Psychology Senior Lecturer at Clemson University, as their presidential nominee.

General election edit

Final predictions edit

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[7] Solid R
Inside Elections[8] Solid R
Sabato's Crystal Ball[9] Safe R
Politico[10] Solid R
RCP[11] Solid R
Niskanen[12] Safe R
CNN[13] Solid R
The Economist[14] Safe R
CBS News[15] Likely R
270towin[16] Safe R
ABC News[17] Solid R
NPR[18] Likely R
NBC News[19] Solid R
538[20] Solid R

Polling edit

Graphical summary edit

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[a]
Margin
270 to Win October 17–25 , 2020 November 3, 2020 42.0% 52.5% 5.5% Trump +10.5
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 39.0% 54.5% 6.5% Trump +15.4
Average 40.5% 53.5% 6.0% Trump +13.0

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[b]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 606 (LV) ± 5.5% 63%[c] 36%
Nielson Brothers Polling Oct 24–28, 2020 484 (LV) ± 4.45% 55% 40% 3% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,098 (LV) 57% 41%
Mason-Dixon Oct 19–21, 2020 625 (LV) ± 4% 51% 40% 3% 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 354 (LV) 58% 41% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 277 (LV) 59% 38% 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 396 (LV) 62% 35% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 160 (LV) 61% 37% 2%

Electoral slates edit

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[21]

Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Kristi Noem[d]
Larry Rhoden
Jason Ravnsborg
Joseph M. Yracheta
Nicole A. Gronli
Randy Seiler
Devin Saxon
Tracey Quint
N/A

Results edit

2020 United States presidential election in South Dakota[23]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
261,043 61.77% +0.24%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
150,471 35.61% +3.87%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
11,095 2.63% -3.00%
Total votes 422,609 100.00%

Results by county edit

County Donald Trump
Republican
Joe Biden
Democratic
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Aurora 1,052 74.88% 317 22.56% 36 2.56% 735 52.32% 1,405
Beadle 4,808 67.90% 2,107 29.76% 166 2.34% 2,701 38.14% 7,081
Bennett 694 58.66% 466 39.39% 23 1.95% 228 19.27% 1,183
Bon Homme 2,235 74.48% 721 24.03% 45 1.49% 1,514 50.45% 3,001
Brookings 8,000 54.92% 6,110 41.94% 457 3.14% 1,890 12.98% 14,567
Brown 10,580 60.30% 6,538 37.26% 429 2.44% 4,042 23.04% 17,547
Brule 1,750 70.28% 673 27.03% 67 2.69% 1,077 43.25% 2,490
Buffalo 183 33.33% 352 64.12% 14 2.55% -169 -30.79% 549
Butte 3,731 77.70% 939 19.55% 132 2.75% 2,792 58.15% 4,802
Campbell 747 85.57% 117 13.40% 9 1.03% 630 72.17% 873
Charles Mix 2,552 67.46% 1,177 31.11% 54 1.43% 1,375 36.35% 3,783
Clark 1,373 74.22% 437 23.62% 40 2.16% 936 50.60% 1,850
Clay 2,456 43.10% 3,083 54.11% 159 2.79% -627 -11.01% 5,698
Codington 8,958 68.06% 3,837 29.15% 366 2.79% 5,121 38.91% 13,161
Corson 647 50.43% 622 48.48% 14 1.09% 25 1.95% 1,283
Custer 3,852 70.11% 1,522 27.70% 120 2.19% 2,330 42.41% 5,494
Davison 5,613 66.39% 2,648 31.32% 193 2.29% 2,965 35.07% 8,454
Day 1,869 63.06% 1,052 35.49% 43 1.45% 817 27.57% 2,964
Deuel 1,699 72.30% 609 25.91% 42 1.79% 1,090 46.39% 2,350
Dewey 790 40.18% 1,131 57.53% 45 2.29% -341 -17.45% 1,966
Douglas 1,468 86.00% 216 12.65% 23 1.35% 1,252 73.35% 1,707
Edmunds 1,538 77.48% 417 21.01% 30 1.51% 1,121 56.47% 1,985
Fall River 2,878 71.20% 1,053 26.05% 111 2.75% 1,825 45.15% 4,042
Faulk 964 81.56% 198 16.75% 20 1.69% 766 64.81% 1,182
Grant 2,618 69.91% 1,056 28.20% 71 1.89% 1,562 41.71% 3,745
Gregory 1,771 78.43% 455 20.15% 32 1.42% 1,316 58.28% 2,258
Haakon 1,026 90.24% 105 9.23% 6 0.53% 921 81.01% 1,137
Hamlin 2,372 76.94% 647 20.99% 64 2.07% 1,725 55.95% 3,083
Hand 1,433 78.05% 373 20.32% 30 1.63% 1,060 57.73% 1,836
Hanson 1,793 75.08% 557 23.32% 38 1.60% 1,236 51.76% 2,388
Harding 748 92.00% 49 6.03% 16 1.97% 699 85.97% 813
Hughes 5,522 63.30% 2,953 33.85% 248 2.85% 2,569 29.45% 8,723
Hutchinson 2,944 78.15% 762 20.23% 61 1.62% 2,182 57.92% 3,767
Hyde 564 79.44% 136 19.15% 10 1.41% 428 60.29% 710
Jackson 738 66.19% 359 32.20% 18 1.61% 379 33.99% 1,115
Jerauld 721 71.67% 270 26.84% 15 1.49% 451 44.83% 1,006
Jones 498 83.14% 90 15.03% 11 1.83% 408 68.11% 599
Kingsbury 1,904 68.51% 819 29.47% 56 2.02% 1,085 39.04% 2,779
Lake 3,681 62.68% 2,068 35.21% 124 2.11% 1,613 27.47% 5,873
Lawrence 8,753 63.30% 4,537 32.81% 538 3.89% 4,216 30.49% 13,828
Lincoln 19,617 60.55% 11,981 36.98% 798 2.47% 7,636 23.57% 32,396
Lyman 1,042 65.25% 525 32.87% 30 1.88% 517 32.38% 1,597
Marshall 1,287 59.09% 858 39.39% 33 1.52% 429 19.70% 2,178
McCook 2,068 71.31% 769 26.52% 63 2.17% 1,299 44.79% 2,900
McPherson 1,075 81.19% 222 16.77% 27 2.04% 853 64.42% 1,324
Meade 9,875 72.24% 3,285 24.03% 510 3.73% 6,590 48.21% 13,670
Mellette 449 58.39% 298 38.75% 22 2.86% 151 19.64% 769
Miner 787 69.16% 320 28.12% 31 2.72% 567 41.04% 1,138
Minnehaha 49,249 53.34% 40,482 43.85% 2,595 2.81% 8,767 9.49% 92,326
Moody 1,951 60.85% 1,179 36.77% 76 2.38% 772 24.08% 3,206
Oglala Lakota 297 9.28% 2,829 88.41% 74 2.31% -2,532 -79.13% 3,200
Pennington 35,063 60.96% 20,606 35.83% 1,849 3.21% 14,457 25.13% 57,518
Perkins 1,401 83.94% 239 14.32% 29 1.74% 1,162 69.62% 1,669
Potter 1,139 82.54% 227 16.45% 14 1.01% 912 66.09% 1,380
Roberts 2,404 55.82% 1,828 42.44% 75 1.74% 576 13.38% 4,307
Sanborn 905 76.37% 257 21.69% 23 1.94% 648 54.68% 1,185
Spink 2,104 66.52% 998 31.55% 61 1.93% 1,106 34.97% 3,163
Stanley 1,203 72.82% 421 25.48% 28 1.70% 782 47.34% 1,652
Sully 726 78.06% 185 19.89% 19 2.05% 541 58.17% 930
Todd 532 20.95% 1,963 77.31% 44 1.74% -1,431 -56.36% 2,539
Tripp 2,161 80.16% 495 18.36% 40 1.48% 1,666 61.80% 2,696
Turner 3,290 72.34% 1,139 25.04% 119 2.62% 2,151 47.30% 4,548
Union 5,944 67.13% 2,725 30.77% 186 2.10% 3,219 36.36% 8,855
Walworth 1,966 76.20% 565 21.90% 49 1.90% 1,401 54.30% 2,580
Yankton 6,581 60.38% 4,016 36.84% 303 2.78% 2,565 23.54% 10,900
Ziebach 404 44.59% 481 53.09% 21 2.32% -77 -8.50% 906
Totals 261,043 61.77% 150,471 35.61% 11,095 2.62% 110,572 26.16% 422,609
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

South Dakota has only one congressional district because of its small population compared to other states. This district, called the At-Large district because it covers the entire state, is equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Biden Representative
At-large 61.77% 35.61% Dusty Johnson

Analysis edit

South Dakota, a majority-White, mainly-rural state in the Midwestern Plains, is normally a Republican stronghold at both the state and presidential levels, despite being more populated than—and voting to the left of—neighboring North Dakota. It hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since Lyndon B. Johnson carried it in 1964, against the backdrop of his nationwide landslide victory. It has only been competitive (within 5 points of a Democratic victory) in three elections since then: 1976, 1992, and 1996, all elections the Democratic nominee won. Even South Dakota Senator George McGovern failed to carry his home state as Democratic nominee in the Republican landslide of 1972.

Despite Trump's win in the state, Biden flipped majority-Native American Ziebach County back to Democratic after it flipped red in 2016. Meanwhile, Trump held the majority-Native American counties of Bennett, Mellette and Jackson, and grew his support in Corson County, particularly in white-majority precincts while Biden held on to Native American support in other majority-minority precincts in the state. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Trump won 63% of White Americans, a group composing 94% of the electorate.[24] A sparsely populated state with a rural and conservative lifestyle, South Dakota has an agrarian populist streak[25] to which Trump made direct appeals. He campaigned personally in the state, using Mount Rushmore as a backdrop to cast himself as waging battle against a "new far-left fascism".[26]

While Biden did not win Minnehaha County, home to the state's largest city, Sioux Falls, that Barack Obama carried by less than one percent in 2008, he reduced Trump's 2016 14.6-percent winning margin in the county to 9.4 points, although Trump received a higher percentage of votes in the county than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Biden became the first Democrat to win the White House without carrying Roberts County since Woodrow Wilson in 1916, as well as the first to do so without carrying Day County since Franklin D. Roosevelt in 1944, and the first to do so without carrying Marshall County since John F. Kennedy in 1960.

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  4. ^ After her election, Noem was replaced by Dan Lederman.[22]

References edit

  1. ^ "Voter turnout". Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "South Dakota Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 3, 2020.
  5. ^ "2020 Primary State Canvass Report and Certificate" (PDF). electionresults.sd.gov. South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved August 12, 2020.
  6. ^ "Delegate Tracker". interactives.ap.org. Associated Press. Retrieved June 2, 2020.
  7. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  8. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  9. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  10. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  11. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  12. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  13. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  14. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  15. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  16. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  17. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  18. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  19. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  21. ^ "Certificate of Ascertainment of Election" (PDF). South Dakota Secretary of State. Retrieved December 6, 2020.
  22. ^ Zionts, Arielle (January 19, 2021). "Noem meeting with Trump on Monday instead of voting for him in Electoral College". Rapid City Journal. Retrieved July 25, 2021.
  23. ^ "General Election - November 3, 2020" (PDF). sdsos.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  24. ^ "South Dakota Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  25. ^ Cohen, Micah (August 24, 2012). "In South Dakota, Only the Farm Trumps Conservatism". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 17, 2020.
  26. ^ "Remarks by President Trump at South Dakota's 2020 Mount Rushmore Fireworks Celebration | Keystone, South Dakota". The White House. Retrieved November 17, 2020.

External links edit