2020 United States presidential election in Vermont

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential election in Vermont was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Vermont voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Vermont has three electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Vermont

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout73.27%[1] Increase
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 3 0
Popular vote 242,820 112,704
Percentage 66.09% 30.67%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

This is the first time Vermont was the strongest state for either party since 1956, when it was Republican Dwight D. Eisenhower's best state. Vermont also saw the largest increase in turnout from 2016, increasing 14.3%.[4] Biden greatly improved on Hillary Clinton's 55.7% vote share and 25.9% margin from 2016, when third-party candidates received over 14% of the vote.[5] Biden's performance was also the fourth-strongest Democratic performance in state history. Trump carried only one county, sparsely-populated Essex bordering New Hampshire, which had voted for the winner from 1980 to 2016. Consequently, Biden became the first president to win without the county since Jimmy Carter in 1976.

Another factor for Biden's improvement was strong support from Bernie Sanders, one of the state's U.S. Senators and a former candidate for the 2020 Democratic nomination who, despite endorsing Hillary Clinton, had received 5.7% of the vote in 2016 as a non-soliciting write-in candidate. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Sanders maintained a 63% approval rating among his constituents, and his supporters broke 93% for Biden.[6]

Background edit

Vermont was once one of the most Republican states in the nation. From 1856 to 1988, it voted Republican in every election except Lyndon Johnson's 44-state landslide in 1964. However, the brand of Republicanism practiced in Vermont has historically been a moderate one. Coupled with an influx of more liberal newcomers from out of state, this made Vermont considerably friendlier to Democrats as the national GOP moved further to the right.

After narrowly supporting George H. W. Bush in 1988, Vermont gave Bill Clinton a 16-point margin in 1992. Republicans have not seriously contested the state since then, and Vermont is now reckoned as part of the "Blue Wall"–the 19 jurisdictions that delivered their electoral votes to the Democratic standard-bearer at every election from 1992 to 2012, and again in 2020. Underlining how Republican Vermont once was, Trump and George W. Bush are the only Republicans to win the White House without carrying Vermont.

Primary elections edit

Republican primary edit

The Republican primary was held on March 3, 2020. Donald Trump and Bill Weld were among the declared Republican candidates.

2020 Vermont Republican primary[7]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[8]
Donald Trump 33,984 86.49 17
Bill Weld 3,971 10.11 0
Rocky De La Fuente 341 0.87 0
Write-ins 480 1.22 0
Overvotes 37 0.09 0
Blank votes 478 1.22 0
Total 39,291 100% 17

Democratic primary edit

The Democratic primary was held on March 3, 2020. Bernie Sanders, one of the two current senators from Vermont and a 2016 Democratic primary candidate, declared his candidacy on February 19, 2019, after speculation he would do so.[9][10] Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, and Elizabeth Warren were among the other major declared candidates.[11][12]

 
Popular vote share by county
  Sanders—40–50%
  Sanders—50–60%
2020 Vermont Democratic presidential primary[13]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[14]
Bernie Sanders 79,921 50.57 11
Joe Biden 34,669 21.94 5
Elizabeth Warren 19,785 12.52
Michael Bloomberg 14,828 9.38
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[a] 3,709 2.35
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[a] 1,991 1.26
Tulsi Gabbard 1,303 0.82
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[b] 591 0.37
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[a] 202 0.13
Deval Patrick (withdrawn)[b] 137 0.09
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) 135 0.09
Donald Trump (write-in Republican) 83 0.05
Julian Castro (withdrawn) 52 0.03
Hillary Clinton (write-in) 5 0.00
Michael Bennet (write-in) 3 0.00
Other candidates / Write-in [c]238 0.15
Overvotes / Blank votes [d]380 0.24
Total 158,032 100% 16

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[15] Safe D September 10, 2020
Inside Elections[16] Safe D September 4, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[17] Safe D July 14, 2020
Politico[18] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[19] Safe D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[20] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[21] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[22] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[23] Likely D August 16, 2020
270towin[24] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[25] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[26] Likely D August 3, 2020
NBC News[27] Safe D August 6, 2020
538[28] Safe D September 9, 2020

Polling edit

Aggregate polls

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[e]
Margin
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 66.5% 27.8% 5.7% Biden +38.7

Polls

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[f]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 906 (LV) ± 4.5% 26%[g] 71% - -
co/efficient/Scott Milne for Lt. Governor[A] Oct 19–29, 2020 584 (LV) ± 4.05% 32% 62% - - 6%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 1,167 (LV) 29% 69% - -
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 427 (LV) 34% 64% - - 2%
Braun Research/VPR Sep 3–15, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4% 32% 56% - - 8%[h] 3%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 236 (LV) 29% 70% - - 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 368 (LV) 27% 71% - - 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 113 (LV) 20% 75% - - 5%

Results edit

2020 United States presidential election in Vermont[29]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
242,820 66.09% +10.37%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
112,704 30.67% +0.91%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
3,608 0.98% -2.16%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
1,310 0.36% -1.75%
Independent Kanye West
Michelle Tidball
1,269 0.35% N/A
Grumpy Old Patriots H. Brooke Paige
Thomas Witman
1,175 0.32% N/A
Independent Christopher LaFontaine
Michael Speed
856 0.23% N/A
Independent Richard Duncan
Mitch Bupp
213 0.06% N/A
American Solidarity Brian Carroll
Amar Patel
209 0.06% N/A
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
208 0.06% +0.04%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
195 0.05% N/A
Liberty Union Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
166 0.05% -0.05%
Boiling Frog Gary Swing
David Olszta
141 0.04% N/A
Prohibition Phil Collins
Billy Joe Parker
137 0.04% N/A
Bull Moose Keith McCormic
Sam Blasiak
126 0.03% N/A
Independent Brock Pierce
Karla Ballard
100 0.03% N/A
Bread and Roses (political party) Jerome Segal
John De Graaf
65 0.02% N/A
Approval Voting Blake Huber
Frank Atwood
54 0.01% N/A
Independent Kyle Kopitke
Taja Ivanow
53 0.01% N/A
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
48 0.01% N/A
Independent Zachary Scalf
Matthew Lyda
29 0.01% N/A
Write-in 1,942 0.53%
Total votes 367,428 100.00%

Results by county edit

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Addison 14,967 67.96% 6,292 28.57% 763 3.47% 8,675 39.39% 22,022
Bennington 12,705 62.09% 7,114 34.77% 643 3.14% 5,591 27.32% 20,462
Caledonia 9,011 55.73% 6,551 40.52% 607 3.75% 2,460 15.21% 16,169
Chittenden 74,961 75.78% 21,017 21.25% 2,937 2.97% 53,944 54.53% 98,915
Essex 1,405 42.73% 1,773 53.92% 110 3.35% -368 -11.19% 3,288
Franklin 13,611 52.69% 11,274 43.65% 945 3.66% 2,337 9.04% 25,830
Grand Isle 2,905 59.88% 1,810 37.31% 763 2.81% 1,095 22.57% 4,851
Lamoille 10,240 68.66% 4,163 27.91% 512 3.43% 6,077 40.75% 14,915
Orange 10,304 60.18% 6,187 36.13% 631 3.69% 4,117 24.05% 17,122
Orleans 7,147 50.70% 6,512 46.20% 437 3.10% 635 4.50% 14,096
Rutland 18,230 53.66% 14,672 43.19% 1,068 3.15% 3,558 10.47% 33,970
Washington 25,191 71.35% 8,928 25.29% 1,188 3.36% 16,263 46.06% 35,307
Windham 18,767 72.08% 6,440 24.74% 828 3.18% 12,327 47.34% 26,035
Windsor 23,376 67.86% 9,971 28.95% 1,099 3.19% 13,405 38.91% 34,446
Totals 242,820 66.09% 112,704 30.67% 11,904 3.24% 130,116 35.42% 367,428

[29]

 
 

By congressional district edit

Due to the state's low population, only one congressional district is allocated. This district, called the At-Large district because it covers the entire state, is thus equivalent to the statewide election results.

District Trump Biden Representative
At-large 30.67% 66.09% Peter Welch

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, shortly before the primary.
  2. ^ a b Candidate withdrew following the New Hampshire primary, when absentee voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Including "Blank" (written in) with 8 votes; Ron Paul, Michelle Obama, John Edwards and two others with 2 votes; and 110 other write-ins with 1 vote
  4. ^ 57 overvotes and 323 blank votes
  5. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  6. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  7. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  8. ^ "Someone else" with 6%"; "None of the above" with 2%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ Poll sponsored by Milne's campaign in the 2020 Vermont lieutenant gubernatorial election

See also edit

References edit

  1. ^ "Voter turnout" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ "Map: Turnout surged in 2020. See the numbers where you live". NBC News. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  5. ^ Wasserman, David; Sophie; rews; Saenger, Leo; Cohen, Lev; Flinn, Ally; Tatarsky, Griff. "2020 Popular Vote Tracker". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved December 4, 2020.
  6. ^ "Vermont Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  7. ^ ":: Vermont Election Night Results ::". vtelectionresults.sec.state.vt.us. Archived from the original on August 11, 2017. Retrieved March 4, 2020.
  8. ^ "Vermont Election Results 2020". PBS NewsHour. Retrieved March 26, 2020.
  9. ^ "Bernie Sanders Enters 2020 Presidential Campaign, No Longer An Underdog". NPR. Retrieved February 20, 2019.
  10. ^ Martin, Jonathan; Ember, Sydney (December 27, 2018). "For Bernie Sanders, Holding Onto Support May Be Hard in a 2020 Bid". The New York Times.
  11. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Massachusetts". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  12. ^ Ma, John Haltiwanger, Joe Perticone, Alexandra. "Joe Biden is running for president in 2020, warning that another term of Trump would tarnish America's soul forever". Business Insider. Retrieved May 1, 2019.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: multiple names: authors list (link)
  13. ^ "OFFICIAL REPORT OF THE CANVASSING COMMITTEE UNITED STATES AND VERMONT STATEWIDE OFFICES PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARY" (PDF). Vermont Secretary of State. March 9, 2020. Retrieved March 25, 2022.
  14. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: Idaho Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
  15. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  16. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  17. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  18. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  19. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  20. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020
  21. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  22. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  23. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  24. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  25. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  26. ^ Montanaro, Domenico (August 3, 2020). "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  27. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  28. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  29. ^ a b "General official results" (PDF). sos.vermont.gov. Retrieved November 11, 2020.

External links edit