2020 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential election in Washington was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 U.S. states plus the District of Columbia participated.[2] Washington voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. Washington has 12 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[3]

2020 United States presidential election in Washington (state)

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
Turnout84.11% (of registered voters) Increase5.35%[1]
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 12 0
Popular vote 2,369,612 1,584,651
Percentage 57.97% 38.77%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Prior to the election, most news organizations forecast Washington as a state that Biden would win, or a safe blue state. Biden won the state by 19.2%, the largest margin for a presidential candidate of any party since 1964. He also flipped the swing county of Clallam, which now holds the record for the longest ongoing streak of voting for the national winner, having supported the winning candidate in every election since 1980. Biden also became the candidate with the highest vote total in the state's history, with 2,369,612 votes.[4] This was the first time since 1988 that Washington voted to the left of Illinois.

The Seattle metropolitan area, home to almost two-thirds of the state's population, is overwhelmingly Democratic. Despite this, even if the votes from King, Snohomish, and Pierce counties were removed, Biden would have carried the state by over 4,000 votes.[5] However, Trump won a considerable majority in outlying communities, garnering over 70% of the vote in rural counties such as Columbia. Eastern Washington is very rural and leans Republican, partly due to the strong tinge of social conservatism it shares with neighboring Idaho, a GOP stronghold. That said, Biden was able to improve on Clinton's margin in Whitman County--anchored by the college town of Pullman--increasing it from 4.1% in 2016 to 10.2% in 2020, the best performance for a Democrat in the county since 1936. In addition, he narrowed Trump's margin in Spokane County from 8.4% to 4.3%. Biden earned 75% of the vote in King County, home to Seattle. This was the largest margin by any candidate in a presidential race since the county's creation.[6]

Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's strength in Washington came from 59% among white voters, 73% among Latinos and 79% among Asian-Americans. 34% of voters were irreligious and supported Biden by 78%.[7] Additionally, a majority of Native Americans in the state backed Biden by about 65%, with some tribes supporting Biden by over 80%.[8] Biden also became the first Democrat since Washington's admission into the union to win the presidency without winning Mason County, the first Democrat since John F. Kennedy in 1960 to prevail without winning Cowlitz County, and the first Democrat since Woodrow Wilson in 1916 to prevail without winning Grays Harbor County and Pacific County.

Primary elections edit

The primaries for the major parties were on March 10, 2020. On March 14, 2019, Governor Jay Inslee signed a bill moving the state's presidential primary up from May to the second Tuesday in March.[9]

Republican primary edit

Donald Trump, Bill Weld, Joe Walsh, and Rocky de la Fuente had declared their candidacy for the Republican Party, but only Trump met all of the state party's criteria by the official deadline of January 21, 2020, for being included on the ballot.[10] Thus Trump essentially ran unopposed in the Republican primary, and thus he received all of Washington's 43 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[11]

2020 Washington Republican presidential primary[12]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[13]
Donald Trump 684,239 98.41 43
Write-ins 11,036 1.59 0
Total 695,275 100% 43

Democratic primary edit

A number of Democratic Party candidates ran or expressed interest in running.[14][15][16] Additionally, Seattle-based billionaire Howard Schultz announced a potential bid as an independent in early 2019, but backed out in September of that year.[17] The party's candidates included on the ballot at the deadline were Michael Bennet, Joe Biden, Michael Bloomberg, Cory Booker, Pete Buttigieg, John Delaney, Tulsi Gabbard, Amy Klobuchar, Deval Patrick, Bernie Sanders, Tom Steyer, Elizabeth Warren and Andrew Yang.[10]

 
Popular vote share by county
  Biden—30–40%
  Biden—40–50%
  Sanders—30–40%
  Sanders—40–50%
2020 Washington Democratic presidential primary[18]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[19]
Joe Biden 591,403 37.94 46
Bernie Sanders 570,039 36.57 43
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] 142,652 9.15
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] 122,530 7.86
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] 63,344 4.06
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] 33,383 2.14
Tulsi Gabbard 13,199 0.85
Andrew Yang (withdrawn) 6,403 0.41
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] 3,455 0.22
Michael Bennet (withdrawn) 2,044 0.13
Cory Booker (withdrawn) 1,314 0.08
John Delaney (withdrawn) 573 0.04
Deval Patrick (withdrawn) 508 0.03
Write-in votes 1,479 0.09
Uncommitted 6,450 0.41
Total 1,558,776 100% 89

Green primary edit

As a minor party, Washington State's Green Party affiliate is excluded from the publicly funded Presidential Primary in Washington State. The Green Party of Washington facilitated its primary by a mail-in ballot to its members after its Spring Convention on May 23[20] (deadline was June 13).

All candidates recognized by the Green Party of the United States by April 23 were on the ballot, plus a write-in option:

General election edit

Final predictions edit

Source Ranking
The Cook Political Report[21] Solid D
Inside Elections[22] Solid D
Sabato's Crystal Ball[23] Safe D
Politico[24] Solid D
RCP[25] Likely D
Niskanen[26] Safe D
CNN[27] Solid D
The Economist[28] Safe D
CBS News[29] Likely D
270towin[30] Safe D
ABC News[31] Solid D
NPR[32] Likely D
NBC News[33] Solid D
538[34] Solid D

Polling edit

Graphical summary edit

Aggregate polls edit

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[c]
Margin
270 to Win October 8–15, 2020 October 27, 2020 57.5% 35.5% 7.0% Biden +22.0
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 59.4% 36.4% 4.2% Biden +23.0
Average 58.5% 36.0% 5.6% Biden +22.5

Polls edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 4,142 (LV) ± 2% 35%[e] 62%
Swayable Archived November 27, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 23 – Nov 1, 2020 489 (LV) ± 6% 39% 59% 2% 1%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 7,424 (LV) 36% 62%
PPP/NPI Oct 14–15, 2020 610 (LV) ± 4% 37% 60% 2%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV Oct 8–10, 2020 591 (LV) ± 5.2% 34% 55% 5%[f] 5%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 7,953 (LV) 35% 64% 2%
Strategies 360 Sep 8–14, 2020 501 (RV) ± 4.4% 36% 58% 7%[g]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 7,489 (LV) 37% 61% 2%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 7,691 (LV) 37% 62% 2%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV Jul 22–27, 2020 534 (LV) ± 5.2% 28% 62% 6%[h]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 3,939 (LV) 36% 62% 2%
Public Policy Polling/NPI May 19–20, 2020 1,070 (LV) ± 3% 37% 59% 5%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV May 16–19, 2020 530 (LV) ± 5.5% 31% 57% 5%[i] 7%
EMC Research Mar 31 – Apr 6, 2020 583 (A) ± 4.1% 39% 52% 9%
SurveyUSA/KING-TV Mar 4–6, 2020 992 (RV) ± 3.8% 34% 57% 9%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia Advocate Oct 22–23, 2019 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 37% 59% 3%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 1,265 (LV) ± 2.8% 31% 52% 17%
Hypothetical polling

Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 1,265 (LV) ± 2.8% 32% 44% 24%

with Donald Trump and Kamala Harris

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Kamala
Harris (D)
Undecided
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 1,265 (LV) ± 2.8% 33% 47% 20%

Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA/KING-TV Mar 4–6, 2020 992 (RV) ± 3.8% 35% 56% 9%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia Advocate Oct 22–23, 2019 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 37% 58% 6%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 1,265 (LV) ± 2.8% 32% 54% 14%

Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Undecided
SurveyUSA/KING-TV Mar 4–6, 2020 992 (RV) ± 3.8% 38% 52% 10%
Public Policy Polling/The Cascadia Advocate Oct 22–23, 2019 900 (LV) ± 3.3% 37% 60% 3%
Zogby Interactive/JZ Analytics Jul 22 – Aug 1, 2019 1,265 (LV) ± 2.8% 33% 48% 20%

with Donald Trump and generic Democrat

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[d]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Generic
Democrat
Undecided
Public Policy Polling May 21–22, 2019 886 (LV) ± 3.3% 34% 59% 7%

Electoral slates edit

These slates of electors were nominated by each party in order to vote in the Electoral College should their candidate win the state:[35]

Joe Biden and
Kamala Harris
Democratic Party
Donald Trump and
Mike Pence
Republican Party
Jo Jorgensen and
Spike Cohen
Libertarian Party
Howie Hawkins and
Angela Walker
Green Party
Gloria La Riva and
Sunil Freeman
Party for Socialism and Liberation
Alyson Kennedy and
Malcolm Jarrett
Socialist Workers Party
Martin Chaney
Jack Arends
Jackie Lane
Patsy Whitefoot
Nancy Monacelli
Julie Johnson
Sophia Danenberg
Jen Carter
Bryan Kesterson
Julian Wheeler
Santiago Ramos
Payton Swinford
Eric Rohrbach
Timothy Hazelo
Ronald Averill
Richard Bilskis
Dan Wallace
Elizabeth Kreiselmaier
Craig Keller
Tamara Flaherty
Timothy Tow
Colleen Wise
Arthur Coday
Sandi Peterson
Nathan Deily
Miguel Duque
Nicholas Coelho
Larry Nicholas
Data Logan
Whitney Davis
Ciaran Dougherty
Steve Hansen
Larry Hovde
Will Leonard
Randy McGlenn
Anna Johnson
Jody Thorsen Grage
Cynthia J. Sellers
Margaret J. Elisabeth
Stonewall Bird
Scott Charles Thompson
Bruce Radtke
Charles Law
Richard A. Redick
Frank Lockwood
Noah Martin
Colin Bartlett
Daniel Bumbarger
Jane N. Cutter
Andrew T. Freeman
Emily Forschmiedt
Sean Connolly
Jacob Nasrallah
Gregory Plancich
Ryan Oliveira
Nicolas Boone
Mitchell Malloy
Mario Carbonell
Eric Buerk
Charles A Susat
Michele Ann Smith
Patricia Ann Scott
Sara Jane Gates
Keith Bryan Smith
Mary Juanita Martin
Edwin B. Fruit
Scott A. Breen
Barbara Anne Kline
Rashaad Ali
Robert Bruneau
Dean Denno
Leah Beth Finger

Results edit

2020 United States presidential election in Washington[36]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joe Biden
Kamala Harris
2,369,612 57.97% +5.43%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,584,651 38.77% +1.94%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
80,500 1.97% −2.88%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
18,289 0.45% −1.31%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
4,840 0.12% +0.01%
Socialist Workers Alyson Kennedy
Malcolm Jarrett
2,487 0.06% −0.07%
Write-in 27,252 0.67% −2.58%
Total votes 4,087,631 100.00% N/A

By winning nearly 58% of the vote, Joe Biden's performance was the best showing for a presidential candidate of any party in Washington since Lyndon B. Johnson's landslide victory in 1964.

By county edit

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total
# % # % # % # %
Adams 1,814 30.95% 3,907 66.65% 141 2.40% -2,093 -35.70% 5,862
Asotin 4,250 35.56% 7,319 61.24% 382 3.20% -3,069 -25.68% 11,951
Benton 38,706 37.57% 60,365 58.59% 3,962 3.84% -21,659 -21.02% 103,033
Chelan 19,349 44.68% 22,746 52.52% 1,211 2.80% -3,397 -7.84% 43,306
Clallam 24,721 50.18% 23,062 46.81% 1,481 3.01% 1,659 3.37% 49,264
Clark 140,324 50.95% 126,303 45.86% 8,776 3.19% 14,021 5.09% 275,403
Columbia 668 26.77% 1,754 70.30% 73 2.93% -1,086 -43.53% 2,495
Cowlitz 23,938 39.71% 34,424 57.11% 1,918 3.18% -10,486 -17.40% 60,280
Douglas 7,811 36.66% 12,955 60.80% 542 2.54% -5,144 -24.14% 21,308
Ferry 1,486 34.03% 2,771 63.45% 110 2.52% -1,285 -29.42% 4,367
Franklin 13,340 41.17% 18,039 55.67% 1,025 3.16% -4,699 -14.50% 32,404
Garfield 366 24.58% 1,069 71.79% 54 3.63% -703 -47.21% 1,489
Grant 11,819 31.37% 24,764 65.72% 1,097 2.91% -12,945 -34.35% 37,680
Grays Harbor 17,354 45.14% 19,877 51.71% 1,210 3.15% -2,523 -6.57% 38,441
Island 29,213 54.17% 22,746 42.18% 1,966 3.65% 6,467 11.99% 53,925
Jefferson 17,204 69.39% 6,931 27.96% 657 2.65% 10,273 41.43% 24,792
King 907,310 74.95% 269,167 22.24% 34,030 2.81% 638,143 52.71% 1,210,507
Kitsap 90,277 56.90% 61,563 38.80% 6,832 4.30% 28,714 18.10% 158,672
Kittitas 11,421 43.32% 14,105 53.50% 838 3.18% -2,684 -10.18% 26,364
Klickitat 5,959 43.95% 7,237 53.37% 364 2.68% -1,278 -9.42% 13,560
Lewis 14,520 32.05% 29,391 64.87% 1,398 3.08% -14,871 -32.82% 45,309
Lincoln 1,713 24.36% 5,150 73.23% 170 2.41% -3,437 -48.87% 7,033
Mason 17,269 46.29% 18,710 50.16% 1,324 3.55% -1,441 -3.87% 37,303
Okanogan 8,900 41.82% 11,840 55.63% 542 2.55% -2,940 -13.81% 21,282
Pacific 6,794 48.31% 6,953 49.44% 317 2.25% -159 -1.13% 14,064
Pend Oreille 2,593 30.32% 5,728 66.97% 232 2.71% -3,135 -36.65% 8,553
Pierce 249,506 53.76% 197,730 42.61% 16,845 3.63% 51,776 11.15% 464,081
San Juan 9,725 73.69% 3,057 23.16% 415 3.15% 6,668 50.53% 13,197
Skagit 38,252 52.10% 32,762 44.62% 2,409 3.28% 5,490 7.48% 73,423
Skamania 3,192 43.65% 3,885 53.13% 235 3.22% -693 -9.48% 7,312
Snohomish 256,728 58.51% 166,428 37.93% 15,640 3.56% 90,300 20.58% 438,796
Spokane 135,765 45.96% 148,576 50.29% 11,089 3.75% -12,811 -4.33% 295,430
Stevens 7,839 27.57% 19,808 69.67% 783 2.76% -11,969 -42.10% 28,430
Thurston 96,608 57.46% 65,277 38.82% 6,249 3.72% 31,331 18.64% 168,134
Wahkiakum 1,165 39.08% 1,741 58.40% 75 2.52% -576 -19.32% 2,981
Walla Walla 13,690 43.79% 16,400 52.46% 1,171 3.75% -2,710 -8.67% 31,261
Whatcom 83,660 60.35% 50,489 36.42% 4,471 3.23% 33,171 23.93% 138,620
Whitman 11,184 52.94% 9,067 42.92% 875 4.14% 2,117 10.02% 21,126
Yakima 43,179 44.89% 50,555 52.56% 2,459 2.55% -7,376 -7.67% 96,193
Totals 2,369,612 57.97% 1,584,651 38.77% 133,368 3.26% 784,961 19.20% 4,087,631
 
 
 

Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

Biden won 7 of 10 congressional districts.[37]

District Trump Biden Representative
1st 38% 59% Suzan DelBene
2nd 35% 62% Rick Larsen
3rd 51% 47% Jaime Herrera Beutler
4th 58% 39% Dan Newhouse
5th 53% 44% Cathy McMorris Rodgers
6th 39% 57% Derek Kilmer
7th 12% 86% Pramila Jayapal
8th 45% 51% Kim Schrier
9th 24% 73% Adam Smith
10th 41% 56% Denny Heck
Marilyn Strickland

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b Candidate withdrew after Super Tuesday when all-mail voting had already begun.
  2. ^ a b c Candidate withdrew before Super Tuesday when all-mail voting had already begun.
  3. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  4. ^ a b c d e f Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  5. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  6. ^ "Another candidate" with 5%
  7. ^ Includes "Refused"
  8. ^ "Another candidate" with 6%
  9. ^ "A candidate from another party" with 5%

References edit

  1. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election - Voter Turnout".
  2. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  4. ^ Farley, Josh (November 7, 2020). "What does Clallam County know? Voters just chose a winner for the tenth straight election". Kitsap Sun. Retrieved November 14, 2020.
  5. ^ "Washington Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  6. ^ "Washington Election Results". The New York Times. November 3, 2020.
  7. ^ "Washington Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  8. ^ Brazile, Liz; Browning, Paige (November 16, 2020). "This is why Native American voters in Washington state rallied behind Joe Biden". KUOW-FM. Archived from the original on November 17, 2020. Retrieved October 28, 2021.
  9. ^ "Gov. Inslee signs bill moving presidential primary up to March". KING. Associated Press. March 14, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2019.
  10. ^ a b "Washington presidential primary ballot is set, even as Democratic field remains in flux". The Spokesman-Review. January 23, 2020.
  11. ^ "Washington Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  12. ^ "March 10, 2020 Presidential Primary Results – Statewide Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 27, 2020. Archived from the original on March 31, 2020. Retrieved March 31, 2020.
  13. ^ "Washington Republican Primary Results". USA Today. Retrieved March 31, 2020.
  14. ^ Taylor, Kate (February 9, 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  15. ^ Zhou, Li (January 21, 2019). "Kamala Harris announces her historic 2020 presidential campaign". Vox. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  16. ^ Detrow, Scott (February 1, 2019). "Cory Booker Makes It Official: He's Running For President In 2020". NPR. Retrieved February 10, 2019.
  17. ^ Emily Birnbaum (January 27, 2019). "Howard Schultz makes Twitter debut amid 2020 speculation". The Hill. Retrieved January 27, 2019.
  18. ^ "March 10, 2020 Presidential Primary Results – Statewide Results". Washington Secretary of State. March 27, 2020. Archived from the original on March 31, 2020. Retrieved March 31, 2020.
  19. ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved March 20, 2020.
  20. ^ "Green Party Presidential Primary". March 23, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  22. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  23. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  24. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  25. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  26. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  27. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  28. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  29. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  31. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  32. ^ "2020 Electoral Map Ratings: Trump Slides, Biden Advantage Expands Over 270 Votes". NPR.org. Retrieved August 3, 2020.
  33. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  34. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Electoral College Electors". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved November 19, 2020.
  36. ^ "November 3, 2020 General Election Results". Washington Secretary of State. Retrieved November 21, 2020.
  37. ^ Results. sos.wa.gov (Report). Archived from the original (PDF) on November 24, 2020.

External links edit