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2021 Ohio's 11th congressional district special election

Summary

On March 10, 2021, Marcia Fudge resigned her seat in the United States House of Representatives after being confirmed by the United States Senate to serve as the Secretary of Housing and Urban Development in the Biden administration. Governor Mike DeWine set the primary date for August 3, concurrent with the special election in Ohio's 15th congressional district.[1][2] The general election was on November 2. Shontel Brown won both the competitive Democratic primary and the general election, and was sworn in on November 4.

Ohio's 11th congressional district special election
← 2020 November 2, 2021 2022 →
Ohio's 11th congressional district
 
Nominee Shontel Brown Laverne Gore
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 82,913 22,198
Percentage 78.9% 21.1%
County results
Brown:      60–70%      80–90%
U.S. Representative before election

Marcia Fudge
Democratic

Elected U.S. Representative

Shontel Brown
Democratic

Democratic primary edit

By early January 2021, former state senator Nina Turner, Cuyahoga County Council member Shontel Brown, and former Cleveland City Council member Jeff Johnson had all announced their candidacies. Turner was perceived as the progressive candidate in the race, while Brown was considered a moderate.[3] Johnson portrayed himself as ideologically between the other two.[3]

Turner filed paperwork to register a committee by the name of "Nina for Us" with the Federal Election Commission (FEC) on the day the Fudge appointment was announced.[4] On December 10, Fudge's nomination was made official; five days later, Turner announced her candidacy in the special election for Ohio's 11th congressional district.[5]

By mid-February 2021, former state senator Shirley Smith and former state representative John E. Barnes Jr. had entered the primary. Turner and Brown were considered the front-runners at this point, with Turner having raised $650,000 to Brown's $40,000.[6] Upon entering the race, Smith attacked Turner for her ties to left-wing activist groups and Brown for her ties to the Cuyahoga County "machine", while Barnes touted his legislative experience.[7] On February 19, The Plain Dealer and Cleveland.com Editorial Team called on Brown to resign as Cuyahoga County Democratic Party chair in order to avoid conflicts of interest, and to "restart the process of amassing local endorsements from scratch" as a candidate and not a "powerful local chair".[8]

By the time the United States Senate confirmed Fudge as HUD secretary, two more candidates had entered the race: Bryan Flannery, a former state representative, and Tariq Shabazz, who ran in the Democratic primary for OH-11 in 2020.[9] The candidates in the Democratic primary have a noted geographical divide. The 11th district, which is heavily gerrymandered, is split roughly evenly between Cuyahoga and Summit Counties. However, six of the seven major candidates were from Cuyahoga County, Flannery being the only exception.[9] Flannery withdrew from the race in early May, citing family issues.[10]

By mid-June, Seth Richardson of The Plain Dealer considered Turner the sole front-runner, as expected support for Brown's campaign had not materialized.[11] Turner was often called the "frontrunner" in local and national media.[12] In late June, several senior and more moderate Democrats publicly announced their support for Brown; these endorsements were noted as resulting in large fundraising hauls for Turner,[13] but they caused Brown to rise substantially in the polls, though her fundraising totals remained behind Turner's.[14] In July, Brown was referred to the Ohio Ethics Commission over allegations made in an article in The Intercept that she had used her influence to award government contracts to campaign donors.[15] Brown faked the endorsement of Garfield Heights Councilman Michael Dudley, who actually endorsed Turner.[16]

In the days leading up to the special election, many national figures came to last-minute campaign events. Figures such as House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn campaigned for Brown, while figures such as Senator Bernie Sanders, a 2016 and 2020 contender for the Democratic nomination for president of the United States, campaigned for Turner.[17]

David Weigel of The Washington Post said Brown's campaign was trying to make the special election "a referendum on supporting the Biden administration" but that Brown's lack of substance on what she would do in Congress "has become a sticking point in the primary".[18] Due to the fragmented nature of the field, it was considered unlikely that any candidate would get 50% of the vote, which resulted in heavy campaigning in Summit County, home to Akron, as the traditionally overlooked pool of voters there were considered a potential swing factor.[19]

Brown won the August 3 primary with 50.2% of the vote.[20]

Campaign financing edit

By mid-February 2021, Turner had raised $650,000 to Brown's $40,000.[6] Final direct campaign donations in August totaled $2.1 million for Brown and $4.5 million for Turner, according to FEC filings. No other candidate raised more than $60,000.[21]

By July, the Democratic Majority for Israel PAC had contributed over $660,000 in advertising attacking Turner and supporting Brown,[22] a figure that rose to over $2 million by the end of the primary,[23] $1 million of which was for television advertisements.[24] The Jewish Democratic Council of America spent five figures targeting Jewish voters in support of Brown.[25] As of late July, the Working Families Party pledged to spend at least $150,000 for Turner via its Super PAC.[26] By the end of the campaign, outside advertisement spending supporting Turner or opposing Brown totaled $900,000 and outside advertisement spending supporting Brown or opposing Turner totaled $2.9 million.[27] NPR reported that the Turner team's fundraising was approximately $5.7 million, while Brown's campaign was about $2.6 million.[27]

Analysis edit

Exit polls showed that Brown won some of the areas with a higher proportion of Black and Jewish voters while Turner won some with more white voters, a minority in the district. In general, Brown fared better in wealthier areas, while Turner won more with below-average incomes. Brown won more areas in the suburbs, while Turner won more in the city of Cleveland. A press release from the Brown campaign says that their internal polling also showed that Turner's loss could be attributed in part to her comparison of voting for then-candidate Joe Biden to "eating half a bowl of shit".[28]

According to HuffPost, Turner’s campaign spent too much on consultants rather than television advertising, and did not "adequately respond to the inevitable attacks on Turner’s history of conflict with key figures in the Democratic Party".[29]

In the broader context of 2021 Democratic primaries, the race was one example of the success of the Democratic Party's institutional, moderate faction against its left-wing factions. In this race Brown represented the successful institutional faction, while Turner represented the leftist faction. Representative Hakeem Jeffries described this institutional success as a marker Democratic voters' disinterest in the more strident ideological rhetoric of the leftist faction. Moderate party leaders publicly exulted at this success. Biden advisors saw the moderate wins as proof of its success in 2020 and as proof of the importance of moderate voters. Members of the left disputed this characterization following the primary season, noting primary election successes like the mayoral campaigns in Buffalo and Pittsburgh and the success of progressive incumbents like Philadelphia district attorney Larry Krasner.[30]

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Other declared candidates edit

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Debates edit

2021 Ohio's 11th congressional district democratic primary debates
 No. Date & Time Host Moderator Link Participants
Key:
 P  Participant    A  Absent    N  Non-invitee    W  Withdrawn
John E. Barnes Jr. Shontel Brown Jeff Johnson Tariq Shabazz Shirley Smith Nina Turner Others
  1[44]  May 23, 2021 East Cleveland Public Library Wayne Dawson
Brandon King
Korean Stevenson 		Video P A[a] P P P A Bell
Pinkney
  2[45]  June 22, 2021 City Club of Cleveland M.L. Schultze Video P P P P P P Corey
Knight

Endorsements edit

Shontel Brown
Executive officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Notable individuals
Bryan Flannery (withdrawn)
Organizations
Nina Turner
Executive officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Municipal officials
Labor unions
Newspapers and publications
Organizations
Notable individuals

Polling edit

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[b] 		Margin
of error 		John E.
Barnes Jr. 		Shontel
Brown 		Jeff
Johnson 		Tariq
Shabazz 		Shirley
Smith 		Nina
Turner 		Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D)[A] July 30 – August 1, 2021 341 (LV) ± 5.3% – 46% 2% – – 43% 3% 7%
The Mellman Group (D)[B] July 13–17, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 36% – – – 41% 5% 18%
Data for Progress (D)[A] July 13–14, 2021 318 (LV) ± 5.5% – 46% – – – 45% 9% –
TargetPoint (R) July 8–10, 2021 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 1% 33% 3% 1% – 33% 4%[c] 25%
Normington Petts (D)[C] July 6–8, 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 36% – – – 43% 7% 14%
The Mellman Group (D)[B] June 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 26% – – – 50% 6% 18%
Tulchin Research (D)[D] May 20–26, 2021 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 2% 15% 4% 2% 3% 50% 5%[d] 21%
The Mellman Group (D)[B] April 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 19% – – – 42% 11% 29%
Normington Petts (D)[C] April 2021 400 (LV) ± 4.9% – 10% – – – 42% 19% 29%

Results edit

 
 
Results by precinct, municipality, and county
  Brown
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Turner
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
  •   >90%
  Tie
  •   40–50%
  No votes
  •   
Democratic primary results[132]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Shontel Brown 38,505 50.11%
Democratic Nina Turner 34,239 44.56%
Democratic Jeff Johnson 1,388 1.81%
Democratic John E. Barnes Jr. 801 1.04%
Democratic Shirley Smith 599 0.78%
Democratic Seth J. Corey 493 0.64%
Democratic Pamela M. Pinkney 184 0.24%
Democratic Will Knight 182 0.24%
Democratic Tariq Shabazz 134 0.17%
Democratic Martin Alexander 105 0.14%
Democratic James Jerome Bell 101 0.13%
Democratic Lateek Shabazz 61 0.08%
Democratic Isaac Powell 52 0.07%
Total votes 76,844 100.0%

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

  • Felicia Washington Ross, Democratic candidate for Ohio's 12th state house district in 2020[10]

Endorsements edit

Laverne Gore
Newspapers and publications
Organizations

Results edit

 
Results by county
Gore
  •   Gore—70–80%
Republican primary results[132]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Laverne Gore 4,009 74.05%
Republican Felicia Washington Ross 1,405 25.95%
Total votes 5,414 100.0%

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[134] Solid D August 4, 2021
Inside Elections[135] Solid D October 27, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[136] Safe D August 4, 2021

Endorsements edit

Shontel Brown (D)
Executive officials
U.S. Representatives
Statewide officials
State legislators
Local officials
Labor unions
Organizations
Notable individuals
Laverne Gore (R)
Organizations

Results edit

2021 Ohio's 11th congressional district special election[146]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Shontel Brown 82,913 78.88% –1.17
Republican Laverne Gore 22,198 21.12% +1.17
Total votes 105,111 100.0%
Democratic hold
By county
County Shontel Brown
Democratic 		Laverne Gore
Republican 		Margin Total
votes
# % # % # %
Cuyahoga (part) 76,386 80.27 18,774 19.73 57,612 60.54 95,160
Summit (part) 5,250 62.46 3,155 37.54 2,095 24.93 8,405
Totals 81,636 78.83 21,929 21.17 59,707 57.65 103,565

Notes edit

  1. ^ Brown sent a surrogate, Jasmine Lattery, to debate in her place.[44]
  2. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  3. ^ "One of the other candidates" with 3%, Will Knight with 1%
  4. ^ "Other" with 3%, Seth Corey and Pamela Pinkney with 1%, Isaac Powell with 0%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b This poll was conducted for an IE and released after the primary
  2. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by DMFI PAC, which had previously endorsed Brown
  3. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Brown's campaign
  4. ^ This poll was sponsored by Turner's campaign

References edit

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External links edit

  Media related to Ohio's 11th congressional district special election, 2021 at Wikimedia Commons

Official campaign websites
  • Shontel Brown (D) for Congress
  • Laverne Gore (R) for Congress

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