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2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas

Summary

The 2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member to the United States Senate to represent the state of Arkansas. Incumbent senator John Boozman was first elected in 2010, defeating Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln. Boozman was re-elected for a second term in the 2016 with 59.8% of the vote and ran in 2022 for a third term.[1] Boozman won the May 24, 2022 Republican primary with 58.03% of the vote and subsequently defeated Democrat Natalie James in the general election by 34.64 percentage points.[2] This was the best performance for a Republican senator in the state's history, and the third consecutive Republican win of this seat.

2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas
← 2016 November 8, 2022 (2022-11-08) 2028 →
 
Nominee John Boozman Natalie James
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote 592,437 280,187
Percentage 65.73% 31.09%
Boozman:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
James:      50–60%
U.S. senator before election

John Boozman
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

John Boozman
Republican

Republican primary edit

 
Former football player Jake Bequette finished second in the primary

Incumbent senator John Boozman ran with the endorsement of former President Donald Trump. However, he attracted multiple opponents from the right who questioned his loyalty to Trump, attacking him for refusing to object to the results of the 2020 United States Presidential election.[3] Despite it being his first time running for office, former NFL football player Jake Bequette and his supporting groups raised over $2.6 million dollars.[4] Boozman ultimately won with 58% of the vote, easily avoiding a runoff.

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Withdrew edit

  • Michael Deel, corporate analyst[8]

Endorsements edit

John Boozman
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Jake Bequette
U.S. Representatives
Individuals
  • Stuart Scheller, former Lt. Colonel[16]

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jake
Bequette 		John
Boozman 		Heath
Loftis 		Jan
Morgan 		Undecided
Hendrix College May 2, 2022 802 (LV) ± 4.3% 19% 45% 2% 17% 18%

Results edit

 
Results by county:
  Boozman
  •   40-50%
  •   50-60%
  •   60-70%
  •   70-80%
Republican primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 201,677 58.03%
Republican Jake Bequette 71,809 20.66%
Republican Jan Morgan 65,958 18.98%
Republican Heath Loftis 8,112 2.33%
Total votes 347,556 100.0%

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

  • Natalie James, small business owner and community advocate[18]

Eliminated in primary edit

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Jack
Foster 		Natalie
James 		Dan
Whitfield 		Undecided
Hendrix College May 2, 2022 597 (LV) ± 5.0% 5% 17% 15% 63%

Results edit

 
Results by county:
  James
  •   30-40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  James/Whitfield tie
  •   40–50%
  Whitfield
  •   30–40%
  •   40–50%
  •   50–60%
  Foster
  •   30–40%
  •   50–60%
Democratic primary results[17]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Natalie James 49,722 54.09%
Democratic Dan Whitfield 28,319 30.80%
Democratic Jack Foster 13,891 15.11%
Total votes 91,932 100.0%

Libertarian convention edit

Candidates edit

Nominated at convention edit

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[24] Solid R March 4, 2022
Inside Elections[25] Solid R April 1, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[26] Safe R March 1, 2022
Politico[27] Solid R April 1, 2022
RCP[28] Safe R February 24, 2022
Fox News[29] Solid R May 12, 2022
DDHQ[30] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[31] Solid R June 30, 2022
The Economist[32] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements edit

John Boozman (R)
U.S. Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
Organizations
Natalie James (D)
Organizations

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		John
Boozman (R) 		Natalie
James (D) 		Other Undecided
Hendrix College September 12, 2022 835 (LV) ± 3.8% 44% 31% 5% [b] 21%
Echelon Insights August 31 – September 7, 2022 382 (RV) ± 7.7% 56% 32% – 12%

Results edit

2022 United States Senate election in Arkansas[37]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican John Boozman (incumbent) 592,437 65.73% +5.96%
Democratic Natalie James 280,187 31.09% -5.08%
Libertarian Kenneth Cates 28,682 3.18% -0.78%
Total votes 901,306 100.0% N/A
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican edit

By congressional district edit

Boozman won all 4 congressional districts.[38]

District Boozman James Representative
1st 72% 25% Rick Crawford
2nd 59% 38% French Hill
3rd 63% 33% Steve Womack
4th 70% 27% Bruce Westerman

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Cates with 5%

References edit

  1. ^ a b "Senator Boozman seeks re-election in 2022". Southwest Times Record. March 15, 2021. Retrieved March 17, 2021.
  2. ^ "AP PROJECTS: Republican John Boozman wins reelection to U.S. Senate from Arkansas". ky3. Retrieved November 9, 2022.
  3. ^ "Boozman blasted for private remarks about Trump". April 5, 2022.
  4. ^ "Senate Candidate Jake Bequette and Supporting Groups Raise over $2.6 Million to Date".
  5. ^ "Former NFL player, Iraq war veteran Jake Bequette challenges Arkansas Sen. Boozman". Fox News. July 12, 2021. Retrieved July 12, 2021.
  6. ^ "Another challenger to John Boozman from the right". Arkansas Times. March 24, 2021. Retrieved April 9, 2021.
  7. ^ "Former gubernatorial candidate Jan Morgan launches U.S. Senate bid". Arkansas Democrat Gazette. March 17, 2021. Retrieved March 18, 2021.
  8. ^ Staff Reports. "Young Republican Michael Deel makes bid for U.S. Senate". Southwest Times Record. Retrieved May 10, 2021.
  9. ^ a b "Donald Trump endorses Sen. John Boozman for reelection". FoxNews. March 8, 2021. Retrieved March 8, 2021.
  10. ^ a b c d Frank E. Lockwood (March 18, 2021). "Gun-rights activist Jan Morgan kicks off Senate run". Northwest Arkansas Democrat Gazette.
  11. ^ Raju, Manu; Rogers, Alex (March 12, 2021). "McConnell quietly courts Senate primary candidates 'who can win' regardless of Trump ties". CNN. Archived from the original on August 24, 2021.
  12. ^ "Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions Announces Second Round of Congressional Endorsements for the 2022 Election Cycle". cresenergy.com. Citizens for Responsible Energy Solutions. May 4, 2022. Archived from the original on August 21, 2022. Retrieved June 7, 2022.
  13. ^ a b "Endorsed Candidates". proisraelamerica.org. Archived from the original on December 20, 2021. Retrieved January 21, 2022.
  14. ^ a b "John Boozman Endorsements".
  15. ^ a b "Republican congressmen endorse Sen. Boozman's primary opponent". January 18, 2022.
  16. ^ https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=915738115796020 [user-generated source]
  17. ^ a b "2022 Preferential Primary and Nonpartisan Judicial General Election".
  18. ^ Staff, A. M. P. (June 14, 2021). "Democrat Natalie James Announces for U.S. Senate". AMP. Retrieved June 15, 2021.
  19. ^ "Arkansas Sen. John Boozman gets another challenger, this time from the left". Arkansas Times. April 9, 2021. Retrieved April 9, 2021.
  20. ^ "Foster to run for US senate". Arkansas Democratic Gazette. April 10, 2021. Retrieved April 10, 2021.
  21. ^ "Dan Whitfield suspends US Senate race after not getting on the ballot". KFSM. October 1, 2020. Retrieved January 13, 2021.
  22. ^ "Dan Whitfield to run against Boozman for US Senate seat in 2022". KFSM. January 13, 2021. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  23. ^ "Libertarians nominate more than 50, including Harrington for governor". Talk Business & Politics. February 21, 2022.
  24. ^ "2022 Senate Race ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved January 14, 2021.
  25. ^ "Senate ratings". Inside Elections. Retrieved January 18, 2021.
  26. ^ "2022 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved January 28, 2021.
  27. ^ "Arkansas Senate Race 2022". Politico. April 1, 2022.
  28. ^ "Battle for the Senate 2022". RCP. January 10, 2022.
  29. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. May 12, 2022. Retrieved May 12, 2022.
  30. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  31. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  32. ^ "Economist's 2022 Senate forecast". The Economist. September 7, 2022. Retrieved September 7, 2022.
  33. ^ Raju, Manu; Rogers, Alex (March 12, 2021). "McConnell quietly courts Senate primary candidates 'who can win' regardless of Trump ties". CNN. Archived from the original on August 24, 2021.
  34. ^ "Natalie James Earns LCV Action Fund Endorsement to Fight for Arkansas Communities in the Senate". October 19, 2022.
  35. ^ "Endorsed Candidates". National Women's Political Caucus. Retrieved November 2, 2022.
  36. ^ "2022 Candidates for Common Good". Vote Common Good. Retrieved November 3, 2022.
  37. ^ "2022 General Election and Nonpartisan Judicial Runoff Election".
  38. ^ Results. docs.google.com (Report).

External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • John Boozman (R) for Senate
  • Kenneth Cates (L) for Senate
  • Natalie James (D) for Senate

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