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2022 United States Senate election in Utah

Summary

The 2022 United States Senate election in Utah was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Utah. Incumbent senator Mike Lee, who was first elected in 2010, won re-election to a third term, defeating Evan McMullin, an independent candidate who was endorsed by the Utah Democratic Party.

2022 United States Senate election in Utah
← 2016 November 8, 2022 2028 →
 
Nominee Mike Lee Evan McMullin
Party Republican Independent
Alliance – Democratic
Popular vote 571,974 459,958
Percentage 53.15% 42.74%
Lee:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%      >90%
McMullin:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      >80%
Hansen:      >90%
Williams:      >90%
Tie:      30–40%      40–50%      50%      No votes
U.S. senator before election

Mike Lee
Republican

Elected U.S. senator

Mike Lee
Republican

This was the first Senate election in Utah's history in which there was no Democratic nominee. Lee's performance was the worst for a Republican in a Utah U.S. Senate election since 1974, while McMullin's was the best ever for an independent in a Utah U.S. Senate race and the best for a non-Republican since 1976.

Republican primary edit

Incumbent U.S. Senator Mike Lee won over 70% of the vote at the Utah Republican Party state convention on April 23, 2022. Though considered by the party to be its nominee, a primary was still held on June 28, 2022, after two other candidates garnered enough signatures to qualify.[1]

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

 
Former state representative Becky Edwards finished second in the primary.
 
Businesswoman Ally Isom finished third in the primary.

Eliminated in primary edit

Eliminated at convention edit

Did not file edit

Withdrawn edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Mike Lee
Executive Branch officials
Organizations

Polling edit

Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Evan
Barlow 		Loy
Brunson 		Becky
Edwards 		Jeremy
Friedbaum 		Laird
Hamblin 		Ally
Isom 		Tyrone
Jensen 		Mike
Lee 		Brendan
Wright 		Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 7–13, 2022 503 (LV) ± 4.3% – – 19% – – 6% – 49% – – 26%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022 484 (LV) ± 4.5% 6% 1% 19% 2% 1% 4% – 67% – – –
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 366 (RV) ± 5.1% – – 5% – – 2% 2% 51% 2% – 37%
Dan Jones & Associates October 14–21, 2021 469 (LV) ± 4.5% – – 7% – – 2% – 53% – 6% 32%
OH Predictive Insights August 2–8, 2021 337 (RV) ± 5.3% – – 3% – – 2% – 45% 3% – 48%
RMG Research June 24–25, 2021 587 (LV) ± 4.0% – – 11% – – – – 47% – 8% 33%

Results edit

Convention edit

State Republican Convention results, 2022
Candidate First ballot Pct.
Mike Lee 2,621 70.74%
Becky Edwards 436 11.77%
Ally Isom 358 9.66%
Jeremy Friedbaum 132 3.56%
Evan Barlow 75 2.02%
Loy Brunson 71 1.92%
Laird Hamblin 12 0.32%
Total 3,705 100.00%

Primary edit

 
Results by county:
  Lee
  •   50–60%
  •   60–70%
  •   70–80%
  •   80–90%
Republican primary results[24][25]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 258,089 61.94%
Republican Becky Edwards 123,617 29.67%
Republican Ally Isom 34,997 8.40%
Total votes 416,703 100.0%

Democratic convention edit

The Utah Democratic Party state convention took place on April 23, 2022.[26] Kael Weston was the only Democrat still running; however, the party endorsed Evan McMullin's independent bid in lieu of nominating a candidate,[27] following encouragement from many prominent Democrats in the state, including former Rep. Ben McAdams and Salt Lake County Mayor Jenny Wilson, to back McMullin's campaign.

Candidates edit

Eliminated at convention edit

 
Former U.S. State Department official Kael Weston

Did not file edit

  • Austin Searle, musician[29]

Withdrew edit

Declined edit

Endorsements edit

Kael Weston
Statewide official

Polling edit

Hypothetical polling
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Allen
Glines 		Nicholas
Mitchell 		Steve
Schmidt 		Austin
Searle 		Kael
Weston 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 110 (RV) ± 9.3% 2% 5% 16% 2% 14% 60%

Convention vote edit

The Utah Democratic Party held a state convention on April 23, 2022, to endorse candidates for state offices.[36][37][38] Supporters of independent candidate Evan McMullin, led by Salt Lake County mayor Jenny Wilson, introduced a motion for the state party to forgo nominating a Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate and to instead "join Evan McMullin’s independent coalition to beat Mike Lee",[37] contending that not doing so would split the anti-Lee vote in the general election.[37][38] The motion was opposed by supporters of Kael Weston, the lone Democratic candidate for the seat who thus would have received the nomination had the motion failed.[38] The delegates passed the motion by a 57%–43% margin.[37][38]

Democratic convention results[38]
Choice Votes %
  Endorse Evan McMullin 782 56.83
Nominate Kael Weston 594 43.17
Total votes 1,376 100.00

Libertarian convention edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Eliminated at convention edit

Independent American convention edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

  • Tommy Williams, perennial candidate[41]

Independents edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Withdrawn edit

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[44] Likely R August 18, 2022
Inside Elections[45] Likely R September 9, 2022
Sabato's Crystal Ball[46] Likely R June 15, 2022
Politico[47] Likely R April 1, 2022
RCP[48] Likely R November 5, 2022
Fox News[49] Likely R September 20, 2022
DDHQ[50] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[51] Solid R September 22, 2022
The Economist[52] Safe R September 7, 2022

Endorsements edit

Mike Lee (R)
U.S. Presidents
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Senators
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Organizations
Evan McMullin (I)
Executive Branch officials
U.S. Representatives
State officials
Local officials
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Political parties
Declined to endorse
U.S. Senators

Polling edit

Aggregate polls
Source of poll
aggregation 		Dates
administered 		Dates
updated 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Undecided
[b] 		Margin
FiveThirtyEight June 15 – November 8, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.5% 38.7% 12.8% Lee +9.8
270towin October 31 – November 1, 2022 November 8, 2022 48.0% 36.7% 15.3% Lee +11.3
Average 48.2% 37.7% 14.1% Lee +10.5
Graphical summary
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Other Undecided
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A] October 29–30, 2022 500 (LV) – 47% 46% – –
Emerson College October 25–28, 2022 825 (LV) ± 3.3% 49% 39% 9%[c] 4%
50% 40% 11%[d] –
OH Predictive Insights October 25–27, 2022 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 53% 34% 4%[e] 9%
Hill Research Consultants (I)[A] October 8–11, 2022 500 (LV) – 43%[f] 49% 4%[g] 4%
42% 46% 4%[h] 8%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] October 4–11, 2022 406 (RV) ± 3.5% 38% 37% – 26%
239 (LV) 50% 38% – 12%
OH Predictive Insights October 5–6, 2022 483 (LV) ± 4.5% 47% 32% 5%[i] 16%
Dan Jones & Associates October 3–6, 2022 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 8%[j] 12%
773 (LV) 42% 37% 8%[j] 12%
Dan Jones & Associates September 3–21, 2022 815 (RV) ± 3.4% 36% 34% 13%[k] 16%
786 (LV) 37% 34% 13%[k] 16%
Lighthouse Research August 30 – September 13, 2022 509 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 37% 10%[l] 5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] September 1–8, 2022 474 (RV) ± 3.5% 40% 37% – 23%
239 (LV) 43% 39% – 18%
Impact Research (I)[C] August 29 – September 1, 2022 800 (LV) ± 3.5% 46% 47% – 7%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] August 4–5, 2022 500 (LV) – 50% 32% 6% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates July 13–18, 2022 801 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 36% 14% 8%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] July 12–14, 2022 529 (LV) ± 4.3% 49% 35% 10% 5%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] July 12, 2022 561 (A) ± 4.1% 43% 32% – 26%
434 (RV) ± 4.7% 44% 34% – 22%
213 (LV) ± 6.7% 50% 36% – 15%
WPA Intelligence (R)[D] June 14–16, 2022 300 (LV) ± 5.7% 52% 33% – 15%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 35% 4% 20%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 41% 37% 4% 19%
Kurt Jetta (I)[B] March 5, 2022 683 (A) ± 3.7% 31% 26% – 44%
– (RV) – 33% 27% – 40%
– (LV) – 38% 30% – 32%
Hypothetical polling
Becky Edwards vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Becky
Edwards (R) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 31% 29% 7% 34%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 29% 28% 6% 37%
Ally Isom vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Ally
Isom (R) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Other Undecided
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 15, 2022 803 (RV) ± 3.5% 24% 34% 7% 36%
Dan Jones & Associates May 24 – June 4, 2022 810 (RV) ± 3.5% 23% 34% 7% 36%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Kael
Weston (D) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Other Undecided
Moore Information Group (R) March 20–24, 2022 400 (LV) ± 5.0% 49% 13% 25% 1% 12%
Dan Jones & Associates March 9–21, 2022 804 (RV) ± 3.5% 43% 11% 19% 3% 24%
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 34% 12% 24% – 30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt vs. Evan McMullin
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Steve
Schmidt (D) 		Evan
McMullin (I) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 36% 11% 23% 30%
Mike Lee vs. Steve Schmidt
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Steve
Schmidt (D) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%
Mike Lee vs. Kael Weston
Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Mike
Lee (R) 		Kael
Weston (D) 		Undecided
OH Predictive Insights February 7–14, 2022 739 (RV) ± 3.6% 45% 25% 30%

Debates edit

2022 United States Senate general election in Utah debates
No. Date Host Moderator Link Republican Independent
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Mike Lee Evan McMullin
1 Oct. 18, 2022 Utah Debate Commission Doug Wright YouTube P P

Results edit

2022 United States Senate election in Utah[89]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Mike Lee (incumbent) 571,974 53.15% –15.00
Independent Evan McMullin 459,958 42.74% N/A
Libertarian James Hansen 31,784 2.95% N/A
Independent American Tommy Williams 12,103 1.12% –1.33
Write-in 242 0.02% N/A
Total votes 1,076,061 100.0%
Republican hold

By county edit

By county
County Mike Lee
Republican 		Evan McMullin
Independent 		James Hansen
Libertarian 		Tommy Williams
Ind. American 		Write-in Margin Total
votes
# % # % # % # % # % # %
Beaver 1,971 80.55 419 17.12 33 1.35 24 0.98 0 0.00 1,552 63.42 2,447
Box Elder 14,434 72.52 4,725 23.74 463 2.33 276 1.39 5 0.02 9,709 48.78 19,903
Cache 24,588 58.56 15,580 37.10 1,228 2.92 586 1.40 8 0.02 9,008 21.45 41,990
Carbon 4,265 63.38 2,114 31.42 230 3.42 119 1.77 1 0.01 2,151 31.97 6,729
Daggett 377 75.70 109 21.89 4 0.80 8 1.61 0 0.00 268 53.81 498
Davis 66,385 53.63 52,806 42.66 2,897 2.34 1,654 1.34 36 0.03 13,579 10.97 123,778
Duchesne 5,170 82.28 912 14.52 96 1.53 103 1.64 2 0.03 4,258 67.77 6,283
Emery 3,269 79.60 712 17.34 70 1.70 56 1.36 0 0.00 2,557 62.26 4,107
Garfield 1,795 75.26 520 21.80 33 1.38 37 1.55 0 0.00 1,275 53.46 2,385
Grand 1,901 40.94 2,421 52.14 250 5.38 71 1.53 0 0.00 -520 -11.20 4,643
Iron 12,923 74.66 3,755 21.69 437 2.52 194 1.12 0 0.00 9,168 52.97 17,309
Juab 3,886 82.14 714 15.09 70 1.48 61 1.29 0 0.00 3,172 67.05 4,731
Kane 2,553 69.77 946 25.85 104 2.84 56 1.53 0 0.00 1,607 43.92 3,659
Millard 4,279 83.41 701 13.66 88 1.72 62 1.21 0 0.00 3,578 69.75 5,130
Morgan 3,665 71.07 1,358 26.33 79 1.53 55 1.07 0 0.00 2,307 44.74 5,157
Piute 692 88.38 82 10.47 6 0.77 3 0.38 0 0.00 610 77.91 783
Rich 844 78.66 206 19.20 14 1.30 9 0.84 0 0.00 638 59.46 1,073
Salt Lake 144,931 38.02 218,495 57.32 13,902 3.65 3,780 0.99 87 0.02 -73,564 -19.30 381,195
San Juan 3,118 56.06 1,815 32.63 338 6.08 289 5.20 2 0.04 1,303 23.43 5,562
Sanpete 7,829 78.26 1,912 19.11 150 1.50 113 1.13 0 0.00 5,917 59.15 10,004
Sevier 6,411 82.46 1,152 14.82 120 1.54 92 1.18 0 0.00 5,259 67.64 7,775
Summit 7,305 35.88 12,325 60.54 553 2.72 171 0.84 4 0.02 -5,020 -24.66 20,358
Tooele 13,371 60.57 7,487 33.92 809 3.66 402 1.82 5 0.02 5,884 26.65 22,074
Uintah 8,905 82.19 1,559 14.39 203 1.87 166 1.53 1 0.01 7,346 67.80 10,834
Utah 127,096 61.67 72,238 35.05 4,949 2.40 1,762 0.85 55 0.03 54,858 26.62 206,100
Wasatch 7,528 55.91 5,429 40.32 350 2.60 157 1.17 0 0.00 2,099 15.59 13,464
Washington 49,420 71.11 17,786 25.59 1,526 2.20 769 1.11 0 0.00 31,634 45.52 69,501
Wayne 1,056 69.75 415 27.41 26 1.72 17 1.12 0 0.00 641 42.34 1,514
Weber 42,007 54.50 31,265 40.56 2,756 3.58 1,011 1.31 36 0.05 10,742 13.94 77,075
Totals 571,974 53.15 459,958 42.74 31,784 2.95 12,103 1.12 242 0.02 112,016 10.41 1,076,061
Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent
Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent

By congressional district edit

Lee won all 4 congressional districts.[90]

District Lee McMullin Representative
1st 52% 44% Blake Moore
2nd 53% 42% Chris Stewart
3rd 52% 44% John Curtis
4th 56% 40% Burgess Owens

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g h i Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 2%
  4. ^ Hansen (L) with 5%; Williams (IA) with 3%; "Someone else" with 3%
  5. ^ Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 1%
  6. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  7. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%
  8. ^ Hansen (L) with 4%
  9. ^ Hansen (L) with 3%; Williams (IA) with 2%
  10. ^ a b Williams (IA) with 2%; Hansen (L) with 1%; "Other" with 5%
  11. ^ a b Williams (IA) with 3%; Hansen (L) with 2%; "Other" with 8%
  12. ^ Hansen (L) and Williams (IA) with 5%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b This poll was sponsored by Put Utah First PAC, which supports McMullin
  2. ^ a b c d This poll was sponsored by Center Street PAC, which supports McMullin
  3. ^ This poll was sponsored by McMullin's campaign
  4. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Lee's campaign

References edit

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  3. ^ "Archived copy" (PDF). Archived (PDF) from the original on July 15, 2021. Retrieved February 24, 2021.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
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  28. ^ "Kael Weston: Utah's people and land deserve better protections". The Salt Lake Tribune. January 27, 2022.
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  30. ^ Glines, Allen [@AllenBGlines] (March 8, 2022). "Today I ended my campaign because I needed to attend to a family matter. I appreciate everyone's support. My website is now down and my ActBlue account is discontinued. Once I'm able, I'll be back to continue to fight for the causes I believe in. I hope you'll join me" (Tweet). Archived from the original on March 10, 2022. Retrieved May 15, 2022 – via Twitter.
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  90. ^ @AGavulic17 (March 24, 2023). "Last November, incumbent R Mike Lee defeated Dem-endorsed Independent Evan McMullin by just over 10 points in the Utah Senate race. In a show of how effective the GOP crack of SLC is, Lee won all 4 CDs by roughly equal margins, despite McMullin winning SL County by 19 points" (Tweet) – via Twitter.

External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • James Hansen (L) for Senate
  • Mike Lee (R) for Senate
  • Evan McMullin (I) for Senate
  • Tommy Williams (Independent American) for Senate

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