2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

Summary

The 2024 United States Senate election in Ohio will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Ohio. Primary elections took place on March 19, 2024.[1] Incumbent Democratic Sherrod Brown is seeking a fourth term in office.[2] Former luxury car dealer Bernie Moreno is the Republican nominee.[3] This race is one of three 2024 U.S. Senate races in which Democratic senators are seeking re-election in states where Republican Donald Trump won both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections. Brown's re-election is considered essential for Democrats' chances to retain the Senate majority in 2024.[4]

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio

← 2018 November 5, 2024 2030 →
 
Nominee Sherrod Brown Bernie Moreno
Party Democratic Republican

Incumbent U.S. senator

Sherrod Brown
Democratic



Background edit

Ohio has trended towards Republicans in recent years and is now seen as a moderately red state at the federal level. Republicans hold the other U.S. Senate seat and all statewide executive offices along with majorities in both state legislative chambers and the U.S. representative delegation. However, in the 2022 midterms Democrats managed to net a gain of one seat in Ohio's U.S. House delegation.[5][6]

Former President Donald Trump won Ohio in both the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections by about 8 points. Republican J. D. Vance defeated Democrat Tim Ryan in the 2022 U.S. Senate election by about 6 points.[7][8]

Brown was first elected in 2006, defeating then-incumbent U.S. Senator Mike DeWine (now governor), and has won reelection in 2012 and 2018.[9][10][11] Even with the state's Republican partisan lean, this race is expected to be highly competitive, as Brown is generally popular among Ohioans and polling thus far has mostly shown him with a slight lead.[12]

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Nominee edit

Endorsements edit

Fundraising edit

Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Sherrod Brown (D) $27,838,244 $14,594,991 $14,614,497
Source: Federal Election Commission[32]

Polling edit

Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Tim Ryan vs. Shontel Brown
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown
Shontel
Brown
Tim
Ryan
Undecided
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 256 (LV)[b] ± 8.3% 58% 6% 15% 21%
Ohio Northern University Jul 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 59% 7% 17% 17%

Results edit

Democratic primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent) 529,497 100.00
Total votes 529,497 100.00

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

2024 United States Senate Republican primary in Ohio
 
← 2018 March 19, 2024 2030 →
       
Candidate Bernie Moreno Matt Dolan Frank LaRose
Popular vote 553,675 360,197 182,441
Percentage 50.5% 32.9% 16.6%

 
County results
Moreno:      40–50%      50–60%      60–70%

Previous Republican nominee

Jim Renacci

Republican nominee

Bernie Moreno

Nominee edit

Eliminated in primary edit

Failed to qualify edit

  • Doug Stuart, retired businessman[37][38]

Declined edit

Debates edit

No. Date Host Moderator Link Candidates
Key:
 P  Participant   A  Absent   N  Non-invitee   I  Invitee  W  Withdrawn
Matt Dolan Frank LaRose Bernie Moreno
1 Jan. 22, 2024 FOX 8 Colleen Marshall
Joe Toohey
FOX 8 P P P
2 Feb. 19, 2024 Spectrum News Mike Kallmeyer Spectrum News P P P
3 Mar. 6, 2024 WLWT Sheree Paolello YouTube P P P

Endorsements edit

Matt Dolan
U.S. senators
Governors
State representatives
Local officials
Individuals
Newspapers
Frank LaRose
U.S. representatives
State representatives
Political parties
Organizations
Bernie Moreno
U.S. presidents
U.S. ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations

Fundraising edit

Campaign finance reports as of February 28, 2024
Candidate Raised Spent Cash on hand
Matt Dolan (R) $11,425,814[c] $9,089,493 $2,383,077
Bernie Moreno (R) $9,735,460[d] $7,338,751 $2,396,709
Frank LaRose (R) $2,217,016[e] $1,625,972 $591,043
Source: Federal Election Commission[32]

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Matt
Dolan
Frank
LaRose
Bernie
Moreno
Other Undecided
Emerson College March 17–18, 2024 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 16% 44%
Mainstreet Research/
Florida Atlantic University
March 13–15, 2024 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 31% 19% 29% 21%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 2024 <1,298 (LV) ± 4.6% 39% 27% 34%
SurveyUSA[A] March 6–11, 2024 533 (LV) ± 3.3% 18% 16% 22% 44%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2024 443 (LV) ± 2.6% 26% 16% 23% 3% 32%
SurveyUSA[B] February 27 – March 3, 2024 568 (LV) ± 4.6% 27% 21% 29% 23%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[C] February 25–26, 2024 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 19% 21% 31% 27%
Emerson College January 23–25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 15% 21% 22% 42%
McLaughlin & Associates (R)[D] December 12–14, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 16% 18% 22% 44%
SurveyUSA[B] December 8–12, 2023 573 (LV) ± 4.6% 18% 33% 12% 1%[f] 35%
Fabrizio, Lee & Associates[C] December 3–5, 2023 600 (LV) ± 4.0% 18% 19% 23% 40%
co/efficient (R)[C] November 18–20, 2023 950 (LV) ± 3.18% 13% 14% 15% 58%
Emerson College/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 468 (LV) ± 4.5% 15% 18% 10% 32%[g] 25%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 294 (LV) ± 6.0% 20% 30% 7% 0%[h] 43%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 269 (LV)[i] ± 8.2% 13% 30% 7% 2% 49%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 18% 32% 7% 1% 43%
Suffolk/USA Today July 9–12, 2023 190 (RV) 14% 19% 9% 57%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 405 (RV) ± 4.0% 14% 17% 7% 4% 58%
Causeway Solutions (R)[E] May 19–27, 2023 526 (RV) ± 2.5% 11% 24% 6% 17% 42%

Results edit

 
Vote share of Bernie Moreno (left), Matt Dolan (center), Frank LaRose (right) by counties
Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Bernie Moreno 553,684 50.5
Republican Matt Dolan 360,197 32.9
Republican Frank LaRose 182,441 16.6
Total votes 1,096,312 100.0

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[85] Tossup November 9, 2023
Inside Elections[86] Tossup November 9, 2023
Sabato's Crystal Ball[87] Tossup November 9, 2023
Elections Daily[88] Tossup May 4, 2023
CNalysis[89] Tossup December 21, 2023

Endorsements edit

Bernie Moreno (R)
U.S. presidents
U.S. ambassadors
U.S. senators
U.S. representatives
Governors
Statewide officials
Individuals
Political parties
Organizations

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Bernie
Moreno (R)
Other Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 47% 36% 17%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 2024 1,298 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 41% 3% 12%
SurveyUSA[A] March 6–11, 2024 533 (LV) ± 3.3% 43% 37% 20%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2024 1,300 (RV) ± 2.6% 39% 34% 6% 21%
Emerson College January 23–25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 39% 37% 5% 18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 42% 32% 26%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 44% 9%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 48% 26% 1% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 35% 33% 32%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 28% 0% 27%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 48% 41% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 46% 42% 2% 11%
Hypothetical polling
Sherrod Brown vs. Matt Dolan
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Matt
Dolan (R)
Other Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 45% 41% 14%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 2024 1,298 (LV) ± 3.2% 41% 43% 4% 12%
SurveyUSA[A] March 6–11, 2024 533 (LV) ± 3.3% 42% 39% 18%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2024 1,300 (RV) ± 2.6% 37% 34% 7% 22%
Emerson College January 23–25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 38% 37% 5% 20%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 38% 22%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 47% 46% 7%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 45% 30% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 36% 38% 26%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 33% 0% 22%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 46% 43% 11%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 45% 44% 4% 7%
Sherrod Brown vs. Frank LaRose
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Frank
LaRose (R)
Other Undecided
Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University March 13–15, 2024 818 (RV) ± 3.4% 48% 37% 15%
East Carolina University March 8–11, 2024 1,298 (LV) ± 3.2% 45% 40% 4% 12%
SurveyUSA[A] March 6–11, 2024 533 (LV) ± 3.3% 44% 36% 19%
Emerson College March 7–10, 2024 1,300 (RV) ± 2.6% 39% 33% 7% 21%
Emerson College January 23–25, 2024 1844 (RV) ± 2.3% 39% 37% 6% 18%
Emerson/WJW-TV November 10–13, 2023 1,000 (RV) ± 3.0% 41% 36% 24%
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 46% 46% 8%
Ohio Northern University October 16–19, 2023 668 (RV) ± 3.8% 44% 31% 0% 25%
Emerson College October 1–3, 2023 438 (RV) ± 4.5% 38% 39% 23%
Ohio Northern University July 17–26, 2023 675 (RV) ± 3.7% 45% 32% 0% 23%
Suffolk University July 9–12, 2023 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 45% 45% 10%
East Carolina University June 21–24, 2023 805 (RV) ± 4.0% 44% 42% 4% 11%
Sherrod Brown vs. Joel Mutchler
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Joel
Mutchler (R)
Other Undecided
Data for Progress (D) October 31 – November 2, 2023 597 (LV) ± 4.0% 48% 43% - 9%
Sherrod Brown vs. generic Republican
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[a]
Margin
of error
Sherrod
Brown (D)
Generic
Republican
Undecided
Causeway Solutions (R)[E] May 19–27, 2023 1639 (RV) ± 2.5% 39% 37% 24%

Results edit

2024 United States Senate election in Ohio
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Sherrod Brown (incumbent)
Republican Bernie Moreno
Total votes

Notes edit

  1. ^ a b c d e f g Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Democratic primary
  3. ^ $9,000,000 of this total was self-funded by Dolan
  4. ^ $4,200,000 of this total was self-funded by Moreno
  5. ^ $250,000 of this total was self-funded by LaRose
  6. ^ Joel Mutchler with 1%
  7. ^ "Someone else" with 29%; Joel Mutchler with 3%
  8. ^ Joel Mutchler with 0%
  9. ^ A subset of poll respondents who said they planned to vote in the Republican primary
Partisan clients
  1. ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by the Ohio Northern University Institute for Civics and Public Policy
  2. ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Center for Election Science
  3. ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Moreno's campaign
  4. ^ Poll sponsored by Buckeye Values PAC, which supports Moreno
  5. ^ a b Poll sponsored by Leadership for Ohio Fund, which supports LaRose

References edit

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External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • Sherrod Brown (D) for Senate
  • Bernie Moreno (R) for Senate