Central England temperature

Summary

The Central England Temperature (CET) record is a meteorological dataset originally published by Professor Gordon Manley in 1953 and subsequently extended and updated in 1974, following many decades of painstaking work. The monthly mean surface air temperatures, for the Midlands region of England, are given (in degrees Celsius) from the year 1659 to the present.

Central England temperature dataset, 1659 to 2014.

This record represents the longest series of monthly temperature observations in existence. It is a valuable dataset for meteorologists and climate scientists. It is monthly from 1659, and a daily version has been produced from 1772. The monthly means from November 1722 onwards are given to a precision of 0.1 °C. The earliest years of the series, from 1659 to October 1722 inclusive, for the most part only have monthly means given to the nearest degree or half a degree, though there is a small 'window' of 0.1 degree precision from 1699 to 1706 inclusive. This reflects the number, accuracy, reliability and geographical spread of the temperature records that were available for the years in question.

Data quality edit

Although best efforts have been made by Manley and subsequent researchers to quality control the series, there are data problems in the early years, with some non-instrumental data used. These problems account for the lower precision to which the early monthly means were quoted by Manley. Parker et al. (1992)[1] addressed this by not using data prior to 1772, since their daily series required more accurate data than did the original series of monthly means. Before 1722, instrumental records do not overlap and Manley used a non-instrumental series from Utrecht compiled by Labrijn (1945), to make the monthly central England temperature (CET) series complete.

For a period early in the 21st century there were two versions of the series: the "official" version maintained by the Hadley Centre in Exeter, and a version that was maintained by the late Philip Eden which he argued was more consistent with the series as originally compiled by Manley.[2]

The warmest year on record was recorded in 2022, with an average temperature of 11.15 degrees Celsius. This beat the previous 2014 record by 0.2 degrees and was almost 2 degrees over the 1961-1990 average

Trends revealed by the series edit

 
CET and its 10-year and 30-year moving averages (orange and black traces, respectively).[3]
 
This stacked warming stripes graphic—technically a two-dimensional heat map—organizes CETs by month (vertically) and by year (horizontally).[4]

During the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries, a cool period which coincided with cool winters and generally cool summers, the temperatures fluctuated widely but with little trend. From 1910, temperatures increased until about 1950, when they flattened before a sharp rising trend began in about 1975. The warmest decade on record is the 2010s (2011–2020) with a mean temperature of 10.40 °C (50.72 °F).[5][a]

Both the general warming trend[6] and the hottest year on record at the time, 2014,[7] have been attributed to human-caused climate change using observational and climate model-based techniques. This record was subsequently broken in 2022, when a mean CET of 11.15 C was recorded, 1.68 degrees above the 1961-90 average and breaking the 2014 record by nearly 0.2 Celsius.

Extremes edit

Taking the 364-year period for the series as a whole:

Hottest edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 11.1 °C (52.0 °F) 2022, 2023[8][9]
Spring (March–May) 10.3 °C (50.5 °F) 2011, 2017
Summer (June–August) 17.7 °C (63.9 °F) 1976
Autumn (September–November) 12.6 °C (54.7 °F) 2006
Winter (December–February) 6.8 °C (44.2 °F) 2015/2016
January 7.5 °C (45.5 °F) 1916
February 7.9 °C (46.2 °F) 1779
March 9.2 °C (48.6 °F) 1957
April 11.8 °C (53.2 °F) 2011
May 15.1 °C (59.2 °F) 1833
June 18.2 °C (64.8 °F) 1846
July 19.8 °C (67.6 °F) 2006
August 19.1 °C (66.4 °F) 1995
September 17.0 °C (62.6 °F) 2023
October 13.3 °C (55.9 °F) 2001
November 9.9 °C (49.8 °F) 1994
December 9.6 °C (49.3 °F) 2015

Coldest edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 6.9 °C (44.4 °F) 1740
Spring (March–May) 5.6 °C (42.1 °F) 1837
Summer (June–August) 13.1 °C (55.6 °F) 1725
Autumn (September–November) 7.5 °C (45.5 °F) 1676, 1740, 1786
Winter (December–February) −1.2 °C (29.8 °F) 1683/1684
January −3.1 °C (26.4 °F) 1795
February −1.9 °C (28.6 °F) 1947
March 1.0 °C (33.8 °F) 1674
April 4.7 °C (40.5 °F) 1701 and 1837
May 8.5 °C (47.3 °F) 1698
June 11.5 °C (52.7 °F) 1675
July 13.4 °C (56.1 °F) 1816
August 12.9 °C (55.2 °F) 1912
September 10.5 °C (50.9 °F) 1674, 1675, 1694 and 1807
October 5.3 °C (41.5 °F) 1740
November 2.3 °C (36.1 °F) 1782
December −0.8 °C (30.6 °F) 1890

Mean, maximum and minimum temperatures edit

Since 1878, the Central England temperature has recorded daily maximum and minimum temperatures; its daily mean records began in 1772. The tables below show the record average max/min for each season and each calendar month since 1878.

Highest minimum edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 7.2 °C (45.0 °F) 2006, 2014, 2023[10]
Spring (March–May) 6.1 °C (43.0 °F) 2017[11]
Summer (June–August) 12.4 °C (54.3 °F) 2006
Autumn (September–November) 9.0 °C (48.2 °F) 2006
Winter (December–February) 3.8 °C (38.8 °F) 1934/35, 2006/07, 2015/16
January 5.2 °C (41.4 °F) 1916
February 4.8 °C (40.6 °F) 2024
March 5.6 °C (42.1 °F) 1957
April 6.7 °C (44.1 °F) 2011
May 8.9 °C (48.0 °F) 1889, 2008
June 11.7 °C (53.1 °F) 2017
July 14.0 °C (57.2 °F) 2006
August 14.0 °C (57.2 °F) 1997
September 12.9 °C (55.2 °F) 2006
October 10.2 °C (50.4 °F) 2001
November 7.4 °C (45.3 °F) 1994
December 6.9 °C (44.4 °F) 2015

Lowest minimum edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 4.3 °C (39.7 °F) 1879[10]
Spring (March–May) 2.3 °C (36.1 °F) 1887[11]
Summer (June–August) 9.7 °C (49.5 °F) 1922
Autumn (September–November) 4.1 °C (39.4 °F) 1919
Winter (December–February) −3.1 °C (26.4 °F) 1962/63
January −4.8 °C (23.4 °F) 1963
February −5.2 °C (22.6 °F) 1895
March −2.0 °C (28.4 °F) 1883
April 1.2 °C (34.2 °F) 2021
May 4.7 °C (40.5 °F) 1885
June 7.9 °C (46.2 °F) 1916
July 9.8 °C (49.6 °F) 1919
August 9.3 °C (48.7 °F) 1885
September 6.6 °C (43.9 °F) 1986
October 3.2 °C (37.8 °F) 1919
November −0.4 °C (31.3 °F) 1915
December −3.8 °C (25.2 °F) 2010

Highest maximum edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 15.3 °C (59.5 °F) 2022[12]
Spring (March–May) 15.7 °C (60.3 °F) 1893[13]
Summer (June–August) 23.4 °C (74.1 °F) 1976
Autumn (September–November) 16.1 °C (61.0 °F) 2006
Winter (December–February) 9.8 °C (49.6 °F) 2015/16
January 10.4 °C (50.7 °F) 1916
February 11.5 °C (52.7 °F) 2019
March 13.8 °C (56.8 °F) 1938
April 17.2 °C (63.0 °F) 2011
May 19.0 °C (66.2 °F) 1992
June 22.6 °C (72.7 °F) 2023
July 25.6 °C (78.1 °F) 2006
August 25.1 °C (77.2 °F) 1995
September 21.5 °C (70.7 °F) 2023
October 17.1 °C (62.8 °F) 1921
November 12.4 °C (54.3 °F) 2011
December 12.3 °C (54.1 °F) 2015

Lowest maximum edit

Period Record Mean Year
Year 10.5 °C (50.9 °F) 1879[12]
Spring (March–May) 10.1 °C (50.2 °F) 1879[13]
Summer (June–August) 17.0 °C (62.6 °F) 1879
Autumn (September–November) 11.1 °C (52.0 °F) 1887, 1896, 1952
Winter (December–February) 2.5 °C (36.5 °F) 1962/63
January 0.6 °C (33.1 °F) 1963
February 0.0 °C (32.0 °F) 1947
March 5.8 °C (42.4 °F) 1883, 1888, 2013
April 9.3 °C (48.7 °F) 1879
May 12.8 °C (55.0 °F) 1902
June 15.5 °C (59.9 °F) 1909, 1972
July 16.6 °C (61.9 °F) 1879
August 16.0 °C (60.8 °F) 1912
September 14.4 °C (57.9 °F) 1952
October 10.2 °C (50.4 °F) 1896
November 5.8 °C (42.4 °F) 1919
December 1.2 °C (34.2 °F) 1890

Daily records edit

Daily mean temperatures have been available since 1772, with max and min data available from 1878 onward. [14]

Highest mean edit

Period[15] Record Mean Date
January 12.7 °C (54.9 °F) 1 January 2022
February 13.7 °C (56.7 °F) 15 February 2024
March 15.2 °C (59.4 °F) 30 March 2017[16]
April 19.7 °C (67.5 °F) 29 April 1775
May 21.2 °C (70.2 °F) 29 May 1780
June 22.9 °C (73.2 °F) 3 June 1947
July 28.1 °C (82.6 °F) 19 July 2022
August 25.2 °C (77.4 °F) 12 August 2020
September 23.3 °C (73.9 °F) 7 September 2023
October 20.1 °C (68.2 °F) 1 October 1985
November 15.5 °C (59.9 °F) 5 November 1938
December 13.1 °C (55.6 °F) 19 December 2015

Highest minimum edit

Period[17] Record Date
January 10.9 °C (51.6 °F) 1 January 2022
February 11.1 °C (52.0 °F) 15 February 2024
March 11.1 °C (52.0 °F) 30 March 1998
April 12.4 °C (54.3 °F) 24 April 2007
May 14.5 °C (58.1 °F) 30 May 1944
June 17.3 °C (63.1 °F) 22 June 1941
July 19.5 °C (67.1 °F) 20 July 2016
August 18.8 °C (65.8 °F) 11 August 1997
September 18.4 °C (65.1 °F) 5 September 1949
October 15.3 °C (59.5 °F) 3 October 2011
November 13.5 °C (56.3 °F) 22 November 1947
December 11.7 °C (53.1 °F) 31 December 2021

Highest maximum edit

Period[18] Record Maximum Date
January 14.5 °C (58.1 °F) 1 January 2022
February 18.6 °C (65.5 °F) 26 February 2019
March 22.2 °C (72.0 °F) 29 March 1965
April 25.0 °C (77.0 °F) 16 April 2003
May 28.9 °C (84.0 °F) 29 May 1944
June 30.4 °C (86.7 °F) 29 June 2019
July 37.3 °C (99.1 °F) 19 July 2022
August 33.4 °C (92.1 °F) 3 August 1990
September 31.2 °C (88.2 °F) 1 September 1906
October 27.0 °C (80.6 °F) 1 October 2011
November 18.7 °C (65.7 °F) 4 November 1946
December 14.5 °C (58.1 °F) 23 December 1977

Lowest mean edit

Period Record Mean Date
January −11.9 °C (10.6 °F) 20 January 1838
February −8.8 °C (16.2 °F) 9 February 1816
March −6.5 °C (20.3 °F) 13 March 1845
April −0.5 °C (31.1 °F) 3 April 1799
May 2.9 °C (37.2 °F) 8 May 1861
June 7.3 °C (45.1 °F) 9 June 1816
July 8.7 °C (47.7 °F) 20 July 1836
August 8.8 °C (47.8 °F) 26 August 1864
September 4.9 °C (40.8 °F) 28 September 1824
October 0.3 °C (32.5 °F) 29 October 1895
November −4.6 °C (23.7 °F) 24 November 1904
December −10.8 °C (12.6 °F) 25 December 1796

Lowest minimum edit

Period Record Minimum Date
January −13.4 °C (7.9 °F) 21 January 1940
February −13.6 °C (7.5 °F) 24 February 1947
March −9.4 °C (15.1 °F) 5 March 1909
April −4.9 °C (23.2 °F) 2 April 1917
May −1.5 °C (29.3 °F) 4 May 1941
June 1.3 °C (34.3 °F) 5 June 1991
July 4.7 °C (40.5 °F) 4 July 1965
August 4.0 °C (39.2 °F) 31 August 1921
September 0.3 °C (32.5 °F) 29 September 1919
October −3.9 °C (25.0 °F) 27 October 1931
November −8.8 °C (16.2 °F) 24 November 1904
December −15.9 °C (3.4 °F) 13 December 1981

Lowest maximum edit

Period Record Date
January −5.7 °C (21.7 °F) 12 January 1987
February −4.5 °C (23.9 °F) 6 February 1895
March −1.1 °C (30.0 °F) 1 March 2018
April 2.3 °C (36.1 °F) 5 April 1911
May 6.0 °C (42.8 °F) 3 May 1892
June 10.1 °C (50.2 °F) 8 June 1897
July 12.5 °C (54.5 °F) 5 July 1920
August 12.0 °C (53.6 °F) 16 August 1888
September 8.3 °C (46.9 °F) 29 September 1918
October 3.1 °C (37.6 °F) 31 October 1934
November −1.0 °C (30.2 °F) 28 November 2010
December −4.0 °C (24.8 °F) 29 December 1908

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Alternatively, if decades are measured from 00-09, the 2000s become the warmest decade on record, with a mean temperature of 10.39 °C (50.70 °F). However, the prevailing method of measuring decades is 01-00.

References edit

  1. ^ Parker, D. E., T. P. Legg, and C. K. Folland, 1992: A new daily Central England Temperature Series, 1772-1991. Int J Climatol, 12, 317-342. [1]
  2. ^ "Checking the CET". Archived from the original on 7 October 2012. Retrieved 13 August 2006.
  3. ^ Data source: Met Office U.K. (31 July 2019). "mean CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1659 to 2019". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Archived from the original on 21 May 2019. Retrieved 31 July 2019.
  4. ^ @iamreddave (16 June 2016). "England Temperatures Since 1659". Archived from the original on 7 September 2019. Retrieved 7 September 2019.Data source: Met Office U.K., Hadley Centre (archive).
  5. ^ Met Office U.K. "MONTHLY MEAN CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE (DEGREES C)". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  6. ^ Karoly, D. J. and P. A. Stott (2006). "Anthropogenic warming of central England temperature". Atmospheric Science Letters. 7 (4): 81–85. Bibcode:2006AtScL...7...81K. doi:10.1002/asl.136. S2CID 121456744.
  7. ^ King, A. D.; et al. (2015). "Attribution of the record high Central England temperature of 2014 to anthropogenic influences". Environmental Research Letters. 10 (5): 054002. Bibcode:2015ERL....10e4002K. doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054002. hdl:1885/153330. S2CID 154632588.
  8. ^ Met Office U.K. "Central England Temperature ranked coldest to warmest from 1659 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 1 January 2024.
  9. ^ Met Office U.K. "Central England Temperature 1659 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 1 January 2024.
  10. ^ a b Met Office U.K. "min CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1878 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  11. ^ a b Met Office U.K. "SEASONAL MINIMUM CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE, 1878 TO 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  12. ^ a b Met Office U.K. "max CET ranked coldest to warmest from 1878 to 2023". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  13. ^ a b Met Office U.K. "SEASONAL MAXIMUM CENTRAL ENGLAND TEMPERATURE, 1878 TO 2024". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 February 2024.
  14. ^ Met Office U.K. "CET Record Breakers". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  15. ^ Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 July 2022.
  16. ^ Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 18 June 2021.
  17. ^ Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 July 2022.
  18. ^ Met Office U.K. "Daily HadCET, 1772 to date". Met Office, Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research. Retrieved 20 July 2022.

Further reading edit

  • G. Manley, "Central England temperatures: monthly means 1659 to 1973.", Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, vol. 100, pp. 389–405 (1974).
  • D.E. Parker, T.P. Legg and C. Folland, "A new daily Central England Temperature series 1772–1991," Int. J. Climatol., vol. 12, pp. 317–342 (1992).
  • Graphs of the series at the University of East Anglia
  • Freely downloadable text file containing the data.
  • Met Office Hadley Centre CET pages