In 2012, Spiegelhalter hosted the BBC Four documentary Tails You Win: The Science of Chance which described the application of probability in everyday life.[20] He also presented a 2013 Cambridge Science Festival talk, How to Spot a Shabby Statistic at the Babbage Lecture Theatre in Cambridge.[5][21]
He was elected as President of the Royal Statistical Society, and took up the position on 1 January 2017. His Presidential address later that year took as its subject Trust in Numbers.[22]
In March 2020 Spiegelhalter launched a podcast called Risky Talk where he interviews experts in risk and evidence communication on topics like genetics, nutrition, climate change and immigration.[23] He appeared on BBC Desert Island Discs on 6 February 2022.[24]
Researchedit
Spiegelhalter's research interests are in statistics[1][25][26] including
Bayesian approach to clinical trials, expert systems and complex modelling and epidemiology.[27]
Graphical models of conditional independence. He wrote several papers in the 1980s that showed how probability could be incorporated into expert systems, a problem that seemed intractable at the time. Spiegelhalter showed that while frequentist probability did not lend itself to expert systems, Bayesian probability most certainly did.[28]
General issues in clinical trials,[31] including cluster randomisation, meta-analysis and ethical monitoring.
Monitoring and comparing clinical and public-health outcomes and their associated publication as performance indicators.
Public understanding of risk,[32][33] including promoting concepts such as the micromort (a one in a million chance of death) and microlife (a 30-minute reduction of life expectancy). Media reporting of statistics,[34] risk and probability and the wider conception of uncertainty as going beyond what is measured to model uncertainty, the unknown and the unmeasurable.
^"David Spiegelhalter's Personal Home Page". Retrieved 6 January 2022.
^Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2021). Covid by numbers : making sense of the pandemic with data / David Spiegelhalter and Anthony Masters. Anthony Masters. [United Kingdom]. ISBN 978-0-241-54773-1. OCLC 1250202258.{{cite book}}: CS1 maint: location missing publisher (link)
^"Appointment of two new Non-Executive Directors to the UK Statistics Authority Board". Retrieved 27 May 2020.
^"UK Statistics Authority welcomes three new non-executive directors".
^"SPIEGELHALTER, Prof. David John". Who's Who. Vol. 2015 (online Oxford University Press ed.). A & C Black. (Subscription or UK public library membership required.)
^Keeble, Andy (18 June 2014). "Barnstaple old boy knighted in Queen's Birthday honours". North Devon Gazette.
^ ab"Spiegelhalter, Sir David (John), (born 16 Aug. 1953), Chair, Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication, University of Cambridge, since 2017 (Winton Professor for the Public Understanding of Risk, 2007–18); Fellow, Churchill College, Cambridge". Who's Who 2021. Oxford University Press. 1 December 2020. Retrieved 29 August 2021.
^ abcd"CURRICULUM VITAE – David John SPIEGELHALTER" (PDF). Understanding Uncertainty. Retrieved 10 May 2019.
^Spiegelhalter, David (1978). Adaptive inference using finite mixture models (PhD thesis). University College London.
^Spiegelhalter, David (October 2009). "Don's Diary" (PDF). CAM. Cambridge University Alumni Association. p. 3. Archived from the original (PDF) on 3 March 2016. Retrieved 21 October 2014.
^"MRC Biostatistics Unit: People". Archived from the original on 3 September 2011. Retrieved 15 September 2011.
^"Welcome to the MRC Biostatistics Unit". Archived from the original on 13 January 2012. Retrieved 25 April 2012.
^"David John Spiegelhalter". Mathematics Genealogy Project. Retrieved 2 September 2019.
^David J. Spiegelhalter at DBLP Bibliography Server
^Spiegelhalter, D. J.; Best, N. G.; Carlin, B. P.; Linde, A. V. D. (2002). "Bayesian Measures of Model Complexity and Fit". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 64 (4): 583–639. doi:10.1111/1467-9868.00353.
^Lauritzen, S. L.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1988). "Local Computations with Probabilities on Graphical Structures and Their Application to Expert Systems". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 50 (2): 157–224. JSTOR 2345762.
^Gilks, W. R.; Richardson, S.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (1996). Markov Chain Monte Carlo in Practice. Chapman & Hall. ISBN 978-0-412-05551-5.
^Spiegelhalter, David; Thomas, Andrew; Best, Nicky; Lunn, Dave (January 2003), WinBUGS User Manual (Version 1.4 ed.), Robinson Way, Cambridge CB2 2SR, UK: MRC Biostatistics Unit, Institute of Public Health, PDF document, archived from the original on 3 March 2012, retrieved 27 February 2012{{citation}}: CS1 maint: location (link)
^Neuenschwander, B.; Capkun-Niggli, G.; Branson, M.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2010). "Summarizing historical information on controls in clinical trials". Clinical Trials. 7 (1): 5–18. doi:10.1177/1740774509356002. PMID 20156954. S2CID 38751711.
^Spiegelhalter, D.; Pearson, M.; Short, I. (2011). "Visualizing Uncertainty About the Future". Science. 333 (6048): 1393–1400. Bibcode:2011Sci...333.1393S. CiteSeerX10.1.1.1029.4615. doi:10.1126/science.1191181. PMID 21903802. S2CID 1223740.
^"David Spiegelhalter's blog | Understanding Uncertainty". Retrieved 15 September 2011.
^Riesch, H.; Spiegelhalter, D. J. (2011). "'Careless pork costs lives': Risk stories from science to press release to media". Health, Risk & Society. 13: 47–64. doi:10.1080/13698575.2010.540645. S2CID 72065012.
^Outstanding Statistical Application Award, ASA, retrieved 31 March 2014.
^UK list: "No. 58014". The London Gazette (1st supplement). 17 June 2006. p. 13.
^"Weldon Memorial Prize and Medal – International Statistical Institute". Archived from the original on 14 August 2011. Retrieved 15 September 2011.