Eroom's law is the observation that drug discovery is becoming slower and more expensive over time, despite improvements in technology (such as high-throughput screening, biotechnology, combinatorial chemistry, and computational drug design), a trend first observed in the 1980s. The inflation-adjusted cost of developing a new drug roughly doubles every nine years.[1] In order to highlight the contrast with the exponential advancements of other forms of technology (such as transistors) over time, the name given to the observation is Moore's law spelled backwards.[2] The term was coined by Dr Jack Scannell and colleagues in 2012 in Nature Reviews Drug Discovery.
The article that proposed the law attributes it to four main causes:[3]
While some suspect a lack of "low-hanging fruit" as a significant contribution to Eroom's law, this may be less important than the four main causes, as there are still many decades' worth of new potential drug targets relative to the number of targets which already have been exploited, even if the industry exploits 4 to 5 new targets per year.[3] There is also space to explore selectively non-selective drugs (or "dirty drugs") that interact with several molecular targets, and which may be particularly effective as central nervous system (CNS) therapeutics, even though few of them have been introduced in the last few decades.[5]
As of 2018, academic spinouts and small biotech startups have surpassed Big Pharma with respect to the number of best-selling drugs approved, with 24/30 (80%) originating outside of Big Pharma. [6]
An alternative hypothesis is that the pharmaceutical industry has become cartelized and formed a bureaucratic oligopoly, resulting in reduced innovation and efficiency. As of 2022, approximately 20 Big Pharma companies control the majority of global branded drug sales (on the scale of ±$1 trillion annually). Critics point out that Big Pharma has reduced investment in R&D, spending double on marketing, and have focused on elevating drug prices instead of risk-taking. [7]