The censuses of 2001 and 2011 show the overwhelmingly most common housing type of the area to be semi-detached houses – almost a majority – followed by mid-rise apartments (whether purpose-built or converted from older houses), then terraced houses and then detached houses. They also show a consistently lower-than-average proportion of social housing than for Greater London.[2]
The constituency is served by three separate commuter railway lines running into central London, and has many parks and sports grounds. Few arterial roads bisect Harrow East – further east is the start of the M1 motorway, and in the middle of seats further south in north-west London are the A40 Western Avenue and North Circular Road, omitting the boundaries drawn from the arterial road-building projects of the 1940s-to-1970s period.
Harrow East has a large Hindu population, a demographic which has shifted heavily away from Labour towards the Conservatives during Blackman's tenure as MP thanks to Blackman's courting of the Hindu nationalist vote.[3] The Conservatives generally perform worse than Labour amongst most ethnic minority groups;[4] it was the most ethnically diverse Conservative-held constituency in the general elections of 2015 and 2017.
History
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The seat was created in 1945 and has been varied due to two sets of major ward reconfigurations and by other national boundary reforms. The predecessor seats were Hendon and to a much lesser extent Harrow.
From 1945 to 2010, it was a stronger area for the Labour Party than neighbouring Harrow West; nevertheless, the seat had been mostly held by the Conservative Party. Labour did win here in landslide victories in 1945, 1966 and 1997, and after the latter, held on in the two subsequent general elections. Commencing with the 1979 general election, and prior to the 2024 general election, the seat was a bellwether by reflecting the national result. The 2017 result produced the 29th-most marginal majority of the Conservative Party's 317 seats by percentage of majority.[5]
The seat was regained in 2010 by the Conservative Bob Blackman on a high turnout whilst Labour's incumbent managed to hold on to Harrow West, as boundary changes had favoured Labour there. Residents in the borough include fewer people in the category of no qualifications than the national average, in 2011, at 16.8%.[6]
In the 2024 general election, Harrow East had the second-largest percentage majority of any Conservative-held seat in the country, behind only Richmond and Northallerton, the seat of then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak; it was the only seat in the country where the Conservatives exceeded 50% of the vote.
Boundaries
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Map of boundaries 2010-2024
1945–1950: The Urban District of Harrow wards of Kenton, Stanmore North, Stanmore South, Wealdstone North, Wealdstone South, and part of Harrow Weald ward.
1950–1955: As above, but the whole of Harrow Weald, and without Wealdstone North or Wealdstone South.
1955–1974: The Municipal Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Harrow Weald, Queensbury, Stanmore North and Stanmore South.
1974–1978: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Harrow Weald, Queensbury, Stanmore North and Stanmore South.
1978–1983: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Canons, Centenary, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Stanmore Park, Stanmore South and Wemborough.
1983–2010: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Canons, Centenary, Greenhill, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, Marlborough, Stanmore Park, Stanmore South, Wealdstone and Wemborough.
2010–2024: The London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Canons, Edgware, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, Queensbury, Stanmore Park and Wealdstone.
2024–present: The London Borough of Brent ward of Queensbury, and he London Borough of Harrow wards of Belmont, Canons, Centenary, Edgware, Harrow Weald, Kenton East, Kenton West, and Stanmore.[7]
The Borough of Brent ward of Queensbury was transferred from the abolished constituency of Brent North, thus uniting the parts of the suburb of Queensbury in Brent with those in Harrow. Other boundary changes included the transfer of Wealdstone to Harrow West.
With 53.3% of the vote, Blackman received the highest vote share for any Conservative candidate that stood in the election, and was the only Conservative elected with an absolute majority.[9] He was one of three Conservative MPs to be re-elected with increased majorities.[10]
^A borough constituency (for the purposes of election expenses and type of returning officer)
^As with all constituencies, Harrow East elects one Member of Parliament (MP) by the first past the post system of election at least every five years.
References
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^"The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituency Boundaries in England – Volume two: Constituency names, designations and composition – London". Boundary Commission for England. Retrieved 19 June 2024.
^Parish: Key Statistics: Population. Archived 11 February 2003 at the Wayback Machine (2011 census). Retrieved 2016-05-04.
^Loucaides, Darren (11 December 2019). "Inside the dirty digital battle for Harrow East's crucial Indian votes". Wired. Retrieved 26 December 2024.
^Katwala, Sunder; Ballinger, Steve (September 2017). "Mind the gap: How the ethnic minority vote cost Theresa May her majority" (PDF). British Future.
^"Statement of Person Nominated and Notice of Poll: Harrow East Constituency" (PDF). Harrow Council. 7 June 2024.
^"Notional results for a UK general election on 12 December 2019". Rallings & Thrasher, Professor David Denver (Scotland), Nicholas Whyte (NI) for Sky News, PA, BBC News and ITV News. UK Parliament. Retrieved 11 July 2024.
^"Statement of Persons Nominated and Notice of Poll for Harrow East Constituency". Harrow London Borough Council. 14 November 2019. Retrieved 24 November 2019.
^"Commons Briefing Paper 8749. General Election 2019: results and analysis" (PDF). London: House of Commons Library. 28 January 2020. Archived (PDF) from the original on 18 November 2021. Retrieved 19 January 2022.
^"Harrow East parliamentary constituency". BBC News.
^"Commons Briefing Paper 7979. General Election 2017: results and analysis" (PDF) (Second ed.). House of Commons Library. 29 January 2019 [7 April 2018]. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 November 2019.
^"Election Data 2015". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 17 October 2015. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
^webmaster@harrow.gov.uk (1 January 2004). "Election results for Harrow East, 7 May 2015".
^"Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
^"Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Archived copy" (PDF). Archived from the original (PDF) on 26 December 2014. Retrieved 26 December 2014.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: archived copy as title (link)
^"1959 By Election Results". Archived from the original on 10 October 2012. Retrieved 15 August 2015.
