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Opinion polling for the 2020 Irish general election

Summary

Numerous polls of support for political parties in Ireland were taken between the 2016 general election and the 2020 general election, which was held on Saturday 8 February 2020. Opinion polls on voting intentions are conducted regularly.

The most frequent were commissioned by media organisations and were published on an approximately monthly basis by The Sunday Times (which uses Behaviour and Attitudes on an exclusive basis) and The Sunday Business Post (which uses the Red C polling company).

Less frequently polls were published by The Irish Times, the Sunday Independent, RTÉ, and others.

Graphical summary edit

 
Graph of opinion polls conducted. Trend lines represent local regressions.

Key polls edit

As methodologies and results differ, even where polls are taken over the same dates, the results of the two main polling companies are shown separately:

Sunday Business Post / Red C poll edit

 

The Sunday Times / B&A poll edit

 

National opinion polls edit

All opinion polls shown below were commissioned by print or broadcast media outlets, with the exception of the Survation poll conducted up to 2 February 2020, which was commissioned by Sinn Féin.

Color key:

  Exit poll   Private poll

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		FG FF SF Lab S–PBP SD GP RI IA O/I[nb 1]
8 February 2020 General election 20.9 22.2 24.5 4.4 2.6 2.9 7.1 0.3 - 12.2[nb 2][nb 3]
8 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI/RTÉ/Irish Times/TG4/UCD[1][2] 5,300 22.4 22.2 22.3 4.6 2.8 3.4 7.9 [nb 4] [nb 5] 14.5
2 February 2020 Survation/Sinn Féin 1,074 17 22 25 6 5 3 9 [nb 4] 1 12[nb 3]
1 February 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 1] 1,200 20 23 25 4 2 2 8 [nb 4] < 1 16[nb 6][nb 3]
30 January 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 2][p 3] 1,000 21 24 24 5 1 3 7 [nb 4] [nb 5] 13[nb 7][nb 3]
30 January 2020 Panelbase/The Times (Ireland)[p 4] 1,000 19 23 21 5 5 5 10 ? ? 12
25 January 2020 Ireland Thinks/Irish Mail on Sunday[p 5] 1,031 22 27 20 6 1 3 10 [nb 4] [nb 5] 11[nb 6][nb 3]
23 January 2020 Red C/Business Post[p 6] 1,000 23 26 19 4 2 3 8 [nb 4] [nb 5] 15[nb 6][nb 3]
18 January 2020 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 7][p 8] 1,200 23 25 21 5 2 2 8 [nb 4] 1 13
14 January 2020 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 9][p 10] 923 20 32 19 4 2 1 7 1 3 10
24 December 2019 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail 1,585 28 25 15 5 3 3 7 [nb 4] [nb 8] 16
17 December 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 11][p 12] 936 27 27 20 6 3 1 6 [nb 4] 2 9[nb 9][nb 10]
21 November 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 13][p 14] 1,000 30 24 11 6 2 2 7 [nb 4] 4 14[nb 11]
12 November 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 15][p 16] 923 27 25 17 6 2 2 6 0 4 11[nb 9][nb 12]
24 October 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[3] 1,000 32 24 11 4 1 2 7 [nb 4] 4 15[nb 11]
15 October 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[4] ? 29 28 16 5 3 1 6 0 2 9[nb 9][nb 13]
13 October 2019 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 17][p 18] 1,200 29 25 14 6 1 1 8 [nb 4] <1 14
17 September 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[5][6] 929 26 29 20 3 1 1 5 1 4 10[nb 9][nb 14]
12 September 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[7] 1,000 29 28 12 6 1 1 7 0 3 13[nb 9][nb 15]
16 July 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[8][9] 902 26 30 14 5 2 1 7 1 4 8
11 June 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[10] 900 23 28 12 5 2 1 11 1 3 13
24 May 2019 Red C/RTÉ/TG4[11] 2,671 26 23 15 5 2 3 12 1 2 11
16 May 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[12][13] 2,000 28 24 13 5 2 2 7 1 2 16[nb 16][nb 17]
14 May 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[12] 933 28 28 19 4 3 1 5 [nb 4] 3 9
8 May 2019 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[14] 1,500 29 26 16 7 [nb 18] [nb 18] 4 [nb 18] [nb 18] 18[nb 18]
17 April 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[15] 1,000 33 23 14 5 1 2 3 [nb 4] 2 17[nb 11][nb 19]
16 April 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[15] 933 28 29 21 4 1 1 1 [nb 4] 4 10
28 March 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[16] 1,000 31 25 13 5 2 3 3 0[nb 20] 3 15[nb 21]
12 March 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[17] 930 31 25 19 5 1 0 3 0 2 12
5 March 2019 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[18] 1,200 30 24 21 6 2 1 2 [nb 4] 1 13
20 February 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[19] 1,000 31 24 18 5 1 2 2 0 2 15
12 February 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[20] 910 30 26 18 5 2 1 2 1 2 14
24 January 2019 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[21] 1,000 32 22 13 6 2 2 3 0 5 14
15 January 2019 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[22] 907 30 26 20 4 2 1 2 [nb 4] 2 13
21 December 2018 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[23] 1,546 32 23 16 7 4 3 4 [nb 4] [nb 8] 13
18 December 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[24][25] 911 31 29 17 5 2 2 3 [nb 4] 2 10
13 December 2018 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[26][27] 920 32 27 21 5 1 2 1 [nb 4] 4 6
22 November 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[28] 1,000 34 27 13 6 0 2 3 0 5 10
13 November 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[29][30] 905 30 27 23 6 2 1 1 [nb 4] 1 9
26 October 2018 Red C/RTÉ News[31][32] 3,474 35 22 15 7 2 3 4 0 1 11[nb 22]
17 October 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[33] 1,000 33 25 15 5 0 2 4 [nb 4] 4 12
16 October 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[34] 940 31 27 19 6 2 0 2 0 2 9
12 October 2018 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[35] 1,200 33 25 24 4 3 1 2 [nb 4] 1 6
10 October 2018 Red C/Paddy Power[36] 1,000 32 27 14 5 2 1 3 0 3 13
18 September 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[37][38] 940 32 25 20 5 3 0 3 0 4 8
13 September 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[39][40][41] 1,000 33 22 14 6 2 2 2 1 4 13
24 August 2018 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[42] 942 29 24 19 6 1 2 2 [nb 4] [nb 8] 17
17 July 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[43][44][45] 931 34 21 22 3 1 1 2 0 4 10
12 June 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[46][47] 931 31 24 24 4 2 1 2 0 3 9
16 May 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[48][49] 1,000 34 25 16 6 3 1 2 0 4 9
15 May 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[50][p 19] 935 30 23 24 4 2 1 2 [nb 4] 3 10
30 April 2018 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[51][52] 1,003 34 27 22 5 1 [nb 23] 3 [nb 4] 5 2
26 April 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[53] 1,000 32 25 14 6 2 2 2 1 2 13
18 April 2018 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[54] ? 29 26 16 5 4 3 4 [nb 4] [nb 8] 13
17 April 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 20] 928 33 25 21 6 1 1 2 1 2 10
17 April 2018 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[55] 1,200 31 26 22 5 2 1 3 [nb 4] 1 9
22 March 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[56][57] 1,000 33 24 16 6 2 2 2 2 1 12
13 March 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[58][59] 900 32 27 19 6 2 1 2 [nb 4] 3 10
22 February 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[60][61] 1,000 32 29 14 6 1 2 2 1 3 10
14 February 2018 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[62][63] 970 36 28 20 4 1 1 2 [nb 4] 3 11
13 February 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[64][65] 926 36 25 16 5 3 1 1 [nb 4] 4 9
25 January 2018 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[66][67] 1,003 32 26 15 6 3 2 4 0 3 9
23 January 2018 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[68][p 21] 1,200 34 25 19 4 2 1 3 [nb 4] 1 11
16 January 2018 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[69][70] 920 32 26 18 6 2 1 2 [nb 4] 4 9
24 December 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 22] 913 34 26 17 5 2 2 2 [nb 4] 4 8
22 December 2017 Ireland Thinks/Irish Daily Mail[p 23] 1,144 33 26 16 6 3 2 2 [nb 4] [nb 8] 12
7 December 2017 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times [p 24][p 25] 1,200 36 25 19 4 1 1 3 [nb 4] 1 10
23 November 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 26][p 27] 1,004 27 26 16 6 3 3 4 1 4 10
7 November 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 28] 919 34 31 14 3 3 1 2 0 3 8
20 October 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 29] 1,004 29 25 14 6 4 2 4 0 4 12
10 October 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 30] 915 31 27 19 4 1 1 2 0 3 12
2 October 2017 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 31][p 32] 1,200 31 29 19 4 2 2 3 0 1 9
22 September 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 33][p 34] 1,004 30 26 16 5 4 4 2 1 2 10
12 September 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 35][p 36] 937 33 25 19 5 1 1 2 0 4 10
21 July 2017 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 37][p 38] 956 30 29 20 7 1 0 2 [nb 4] 5 7
11 July 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 39][p 40] 923 29 30 18 5 2 1 2 0 4 9
5 July 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 41][p 42] 1,000 27 24 18 6 4 2 4 3 4 8
10 June 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 43][p 44] 1,004 29 29 18 5 1 1 3 1 5 9
25 May 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 45][p 46] 1,004 29 21 15 6 3 4 3 1 3 15
13 May 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 47] 945 28 27 18 4 1 1 2 1 4 14
28 April 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 48] 1,004 24 28 18 6 4 4 3 1 2 10
11 April 2017 Behaviour and Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 49] 937 29 28 18 5 2 2 2 [nb 4] [nb 5] 11
24 March 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 50] 1,004 24 26 17 6 4 3 4 0 3 13
8 March 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 51] 934 22 28 23 6 2 1 2 0 6 9
28 February 2017 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 52][p 53] 1,200 28 29 21 4 3 1 3 [nb 24] 2 9
23 February 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 54][p 55] 1,004 24 26 19 4 6 3 4 1 3 10
16 February 2017 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 56][p 57] 960 25 33 20 6 3 2 2 [nb 4] 5 4
8 February 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 58] 955 21 32 19 6 3 2 2 0 5 10
26 January 2017 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 59][p 60] 1,004 24 27 14 5 4 4 4 1 3 14
21 January 2017 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 61] 921 23 29 17 5 5 1 3 0 3 15
13 December 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 62] 924 26 28 19 5 3 1 3 1 5 9
6 December 2016 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 63][p 64] 1,200 27 30 17 6 3 2 3 [nb 24] 2 10
25 November 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 65][p 66] 1,000 25 24 16 5 5 4 3 1 4 12
9 November 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 67] 924 28 30 17 3 3 0 2 0 5 11
27 October 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 68][p 69] 1,002 25 26 13 5 9 3 3 0 6 10
20 October 2016 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 70][p 71] 942 29 27 20 8 5 1 2 [nb 4] 5 3
12 October 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 72] 917 26 30 17 5 2 1 2 1 4 11
4 October 2016 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 73][p 74] 1,200 26 26 19 5 3 2 3 [nb 24] [nb 8] 15
22 September 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 75][p 76] 1,002 25 27 15 7 6 4 2 0 4 10
14 September 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 77] 911 23 28 18 7 4 1 2 0 4 12
27 July 2016 Red C/Paddy Power[p 78][p 79] 1,000 27 28 15 4 4 3 3 0 5 10
13 July 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 80][p 81] 1,004 26 29 13 6 5 4 4 1 5 8
13 July 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 82] 909 25 30 14 6 5 2 2 0 4 12
7 July 2016 Ipsos MRBI/Irish Times[p 83][p 84] 1,200 24 33 16 5 2 2 4 [nb 24] 2 11
29 June 2016 Millward Brown/The Sunday Independent[p 85][p 86] 1,000 30 26 20 7 4 2 3 [nb 24] [nb 8] 8
15 June 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 87] 913 25 26 17 5 4 1 3 1 6 11
26 May 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 88] 1,004 26 26 15 6 5 4 2 0 4 11
11 May 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 89][p 90] 898 26 27 16 5 4 2 4 0 7 9
11 May 2016 Red C/Paddy Power[p 91][p 92] 1,015 27 25 16 5 6 4 3 1 3 10
13 April 2016 Behaviour & Attitudes/The Sunday Times[p 93][p 94] 926 23 26 17 4 4 2 3 1 8 12
10 March 2016 Red C/The Sunday Business Post[p 95][p 96] 1,006 27 25 15 4 4 5 3 2 5 9
26 February 2016 General election 25.5 24.3 13.8 6.6 3.9 3.0 2.7 2.2 4.2 13.7[nb 25]

Preferred Taoiseach edit

Date(s)
conducted 		Polling organisation Sample size Leo Varadkar Micheál Martin Lead
31 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,000 47% 53% 6%
24 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,000 43% 57% 14%
17 January 2020 Amárach Research 1,000 45% 55% 10%

Constituency opinion polls edit

Donegal edit

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		FF SF FG GP Aon Pringle O'Donnell Casey McConnell Lead
8 February 2020 General election 20.4 45.1 13.8 2.1 3.1 7.1 6.1 1.5 0.8 24.7
23 January 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI[p 97] 550 22 39 20 4 3 6 4 2 1 17
26 February 2016 General election 31.0 27.5 15.4 0.6 8.5 3.5

Galway West edit

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		FF FG SF SD Lab GP S-PBP Aon Connolly Grealish Cubbard Lead
8 February 2020 General election 22.7 18.1 14.0 6.0 2.6 6.0 1.5 1.8 9.0 13.3 4.4 4.6
26 January 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI[p 98] 525 20 23 7 12 5 10 2 1 9 7 3 3
28 February 2016 General election 24.2 24.0 8.9 5.0 5.0 2.5 2.0 - 7.6 11.2 3.0 0.2

Kerry edit

Last date
of polling 		Polling firm / Commissioner Sample
size 		M Healy-Rae FF SF FG GP Aon D Healy-Rae Cronin O'Leary Lead
8 February 2020 General election 21.7 20.7 20.3 18.4 5.3 1.4 11.2 0.5 0 1.0
2 February 2020 TG4/Ipsos MRBI[71] 538 19.6 23.0 20.0 23.0 9.0 2.0 3.9 1 0 Tie
26 February 2016 General election 25.7 15.8 11.9 21.4 1.3 - 12.6 3.0

Footnotes edit

  1. ^ This column includes figures for Independents 4 Change and Aontú when available.
  2. ^ Aontú is on 1.9%.
  3. ^ a b c d e f The figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  4. ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x y z aa ab ac ad ae af ag ah ai aj ak al am an Renua is not mentioned.
  5. ^ a b c d e IA are not mentioned.
  6. ^ a b c Aontú is on 1%.
  7. ^ Aontú is on 2%.
  8. ^ a b c d e f g The poll makes no distinction between different groupings of Independents, the Independent Alliance is included in the figure for Others.
  9. ^ a b c d e Aontú is on 0%.
  10. ^ The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  11. ^ a b c Aontú has 1%.
  12. ^ The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  13. ^ The 9% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  14. ^ The 10% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  15. ^ The 13% figure for 'Others/Independents' is the remainder when all others are removed. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  16. ^ Aontú is on 2%.
  17. ^ The 16% figure for 'Others/Independents' is got by adding the cited 2% for Aontú to the 14% cited for 'other Independent candidates'. As with all such calculations, the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  18. ^ a b c d e The 18% figure shown for Independents/Others is calculated by subtracting the cited source's 4% for the Greens from that source's 22% for Independents and all other parties except Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin, and Labour, so the 18% figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects. The cited source does not give figures for other parties or alliances, but states that it includes the Green Party, Social Democrats and Solidarity-PBP.
  19. ^ A figure for 'Others/Independents' is not mentioned in the cited source, but has been calculated by subtracting the other parties from 100%, so the figure shown may be slightly inaccurate due to rounding effects.
  20. ^ Renua has less than 1%.
  21. ^ Aontú has less than 1%.
  22. ^ This figure includes 2% for Independents 4 Change.
  23. ^ Social Democrats are not mentioned.
  24. ^ a b c d e Renua is featured in Others.
  25. ^ This figure includes 1.5% for Independents 4 Change.

Opinion poll sources edit

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  2. ^ "Sinn Fein draw level atop opinion poll days from Irish election". The Star. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
  3. ^ "Election 2020: SF draws level with FF in new poll while FG continues to struggle". Red C/Business Post. 2 February 2020. Retrieved 2 February 2020.
  4. ^ "Election 2020: Poll shows Sinn Féin heading for second place as Fine Gael falters". The Times. Retrieved 1 February 2020.
  5. ^ Lee, John (26 January 2020). "Bad news for Leo! Fianna Fáil and Sinn Féin surge at midway point, latest poll".
  6. ^ Lehane, Mícheál (26 January 2020). "Poll indicates Fianna Fáil, Sinn Féin rise in support". {{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires |journal= (help)
  7. ^ Leahy, Pat. "Irish Times poll January 2020: FF edges ahead of FG as SF surges in new Ipsos MRBI poll". The Irish Times. Retrieved 20 January 2020.
  8. ^ "Irish Times Poll Portal". The Irish Times. 20 January 2019. Retrieved 20 January 2019.
  9. ^ Cunningham, Paul (19 January 2020). "Opinion poll suggests Fianna Fáil has 12-point lead on Fine Gael". RTÉ News. Retrieved 19 January 2020.
  10. ^ McShane, Ian (19 January 2020). "Sunday Times January 2020 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 20 January 2020.
  11. ^ "Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil neck and neck - poll". RTÉ News. 22 December 2019. Retrieved 22 December 2019.
  12. ^ McShane, Ian (23 December 2019). "Sunday Times December 2019 Poll" (PDF). B&A. Retrieved 14 January 2020.
  13. ^ Ryan, Órla (24 November 2019). "Fine Gael support drops but it's still the most popular party, according to poll". TheJournal.ie.
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  45. ^ "Increase in support for Fine Gael, opinion poll suggests". RTÉ.ie. 27 May 2017. Retrieved 5 July 2017.
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