Summary
Several polling firms will conduct opinion polls during the term of the 54th New Zealand Parliament (2023–present) for the next New Zealand general election. The regular polls are the quarterly polls produced by Television New Zealand (1 News) conducted by Verian (formerly known as Colmar Brunton and Kantar Public) and Discovery New Zealand (Newshub) conducted by Reid Research, along with monthly polls by Roy Morgan, and by Curia (Taxpayers' Union). The sample size, margin of error and confidence interval of each poll varies by organisation and date.
The current parliament was elected on 14 October 2023. The next election is expected to take place in late 2026.
Party vote edit
The parties shown in the table are National (NAT), Labour (LAB), Green (GRN), ACT, New Zealand First (NZF), Te Pāti Māori (TPM), and Opportunities (TOP). Other parties may have also registered in some polls, but are not listed in this table.
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Margin of error |
Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2–4 Apr 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.1 | 25.7 | 14.6 | 7.2 | 6.3 | 4.6 | 1.6 | ± 3.1% | 11.4 |
| 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 38 | 23 | 13.5 | 11.5 | 6.5 | 3.5 | 2.5 | – | 15 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 38 | 28 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[1] | ||||||||||
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37.4 | 25.3 | 11.3 | 10 | 7.4 | 2.5 | 2.1 | ± 3.1% | 12.1 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 35.5 | 21.5 | 15.5 | 12 | 7.5 | 4 | 2.5 | – | 14 |
| 21 Feb 2024 | Green Party MP Efeso Collins dies following a health incident, aged 49.[2] | ||||||||||
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 38 | 28 | 12 | 8 | 6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | ± 3.1% | 10 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 38 | 29 | 12 | 7 | 6.2 | 4.9 | 1.4 | 9 | ||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 39.6 | 27.9 | 9 | 13.7 | 5 | 2.3 | – | ± 3.1% | 11.7 |
| 30 Jan 2024 | James Shaw announces his intention to resign as co-leader of the Green Party in March 2024.[3] | ||||||||||
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 22 | 15.5 | 7.5 | 6 | 4.5 | 4.5 | – | 16 |
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 41 | 28.4 | 9.5 | 7.8 | 5.6 | 3.6 | – | ± 3.1% | 12.6 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 36 | 22 | 15.5 | 9.5 | 6 | 5 | 4 | – | 14 |
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | – | 36.5 | 28.8 | 10.8 | 6.2 | 8.1 | 5 | – | – | 7.7 |
| 3 Dec 2023 | Raf Manji resigns as leader of The Opportunities Party.[4] | ||||||||||
| 27 Nov 2023 | Christopher Luxon is sworn in as Prime Minister of New Zealand. | ||||||||||
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 37.5 | 21 | 12.5 | 12.5 | 8 | 2.5 | 3.5 | – | 16.5 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union-Curia | 1,000 | 37 | 28.3 | 13.8 | 8.1 | 6 | 3.4 | 2.9 | ± 3.1% | 8.7 |
| 14 Oct 2023 | 2023 election result | N/A | 38.08 | 26.92 | 11.61 | 8.64 | 6.09 | 3.08 | 2.22 | – | 11.16 |
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | TOP | Margin of error |
Lead |
Preferred prime minister edit
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Luxon | Hipkins | Swarbrick | Seymour | Peters | Lead | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Mar 2024 | Chlöe Swarbrick is elected as co-leader of the Green Party.[1] | ||||||||||
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 24 | 23 | – | – | – | 1 | |||
| 10–14 Feb 2024 | 1 News–Verian | 1,002 | 25 | 15 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 27 | 23 | – | – | – | 4 | ||||
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 19 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 10 | |||
| 8–10 Jan 2024 | Curia | 1,000 | 31 | 13 | – | – | – | 18 | |||
| 3–5 Dec 2023 | Curia | 30 | 22 | – | – | – | 8 | ||||
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 33 | 18 | 6.3 | 4 | 5 | 15 | |||
Government approval rating edit
| Date[a] | Polling organisation | Sample size | Right direction | Wrong direction | Do not know | Lead |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb–24 Mar 2024 | Roy Morgan | 931 | 35 | 54 | 11 | 19 |
| 1–10 Mar 2024 | Talbot Mills | 1,000+ | 40 | 48 | 12 | 8 |
| 3–5 Mar 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.5 | 43.4 | 17 | 3.9 |
| 29 Jan – 25 Feb 2024 | Roy Morgan | 935 | 41.5 | 43.5 | 15 | 2 |
| 1–10 Feb 2024 | Talbot Mills | 43 | 41 | 16 | 2 | |
| 1–7 Feb 2024 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 39.7 | 35.2 | 25.1 | 4.5 |
| 8–28 Jan 2024 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 42 | 41 | 17 | 1 |
| 27 Nov – 17 Dec 2023 | Roy Morgan | 947 | 38 | 45 | 17 | 7 |
| 30 Oct – 26 Nov 2023 | Roy Morgan | 920 | 36.5 | 46 | 17.5 | 9.5 |
| 9–12 Nov 2023 | Guardian Essential | 1,193 | 29 | 48 | 23 | 19 |
| 1–6 Nov 2023 | Taxpayers' Union–Curia | 1,000 | 29 | 49 | 22 | 20 |
Forecasts edit
The use of mixed-member proportional representation allows ready conversion of a party's support into a party vote percentage and therefore a number of seats in Parliament. Projections generally assume no material change to the electorate seats held by each party (ACT retains Epsom and Tāmaki, Greens retain Auckland Central, Rongotai and Wellington Central, Te Pāti Māori retains all six of their Māori electorates, etc). Parties that do not hold an electorate seat and poll below 5% are assumed to win zero seats.
When determining the scenarios for the overall result, the minimum parties necessary to form majority governments are listed (provided parties have indicated openness to working together). Actual governments formed may include other parties beyond the minimum required for a majority; this happened after the 2014 election, when National only needed one seat from another party to reach a 61-seat majority, but instead chose to form a 64-seat government with Māori, ACT and United Future.[5]
| Source | Seats in parliament[i] | Likely government formation(s) | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NAT | LAB | GRN | ACT | NZF | TPM | Total | ||
| Taxpayers' Union–Curia[6] 2–4 Apr 2024 poll |
47 | 32 | 18 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| Roy Morgan[7] 26 Feb – 24 Mar 2024 poll |
47 | 29 | 17 | 14 | 8 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (69) |
| 1 News–Verian[8] 10–14 Feb 2024 poll |
48 | 35 | 15 | 10 | 7 | 6* | 121 | National–ACT–NZ First (65) |
| Talbot Mills[9] 1–10 Feb 2024 poll |
47 | 35 | 15 | 9 | 8 | 6 | 120 | National–ACT–NZ First (64) |
| 2023 election result[10] 14 Oct 2023 |
48 | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 6** | 122 | National–ACT–NZ First (67) |
- * indicates an overhang seat
- ^ Forecasted seats are calculated using the Electoral Commission's MMP seat allocation calculator, based on polling results.
See also edit
Notes edit
References edit
- ^ a b "Chlöe Swarbrick elected new Green Party co-leader". 1 News. 10 March 2024.
- ^ Watson, Melania (21 February 2024). "Green MP and advocate for Pasifika community Fa'anānā Efeso Collins has died". Newshub.
- ^ Quinlivan, Mark (30 January 2024). "James Shaw resigns as Green Party co-leader". Newshub.
- ^ Gill, Sinead (3 December 2023). "TOP leader Raf Manji resigns". The Post.
- ^ Schwartz, Dominique (20 September 2014). "John Key's National Party takes out New Zealand election". ABC News. Retrieved 10 September 2020.
- ^ "Taxpayers' Union – Curia Poll: April 2024". Taxpayers' Union.
- ^ "National/ ACT/ NZ First (56%) increase lead over Labour/ Greens/ Maori on 40.5% – now at 15.5% points". Roy Morgan. 3 April 2024.
- ^ Desmarais, Felix (19 February 2024). "Poll: Preferred PM plunge for Hipkins, Te Pāti Māori gets Waitangi lift". 1 News.
- ^ Coughlan, Thomas (16 February 2024). "National extends lead in latest Talbot-Mills poll, Chris Hipkins falls". New Zealand Herald.
- ^ "2023 General Election - Official Result". ElectionResults.govt.nz. Electoral Commission. 3 November 2023.