Pre-election_pendulum_for_the_2017_Queensland_state_election Knowpia

The following is a Mackerras pendulum prior to the 2017 Queensland state election.^[1]

"Very safe" seats require a swing of more than 20 points to change, "safe" seats 10–20 points to change, "fairly safe" seats 6–10 points, and "marginal" seats less than 6 points.

Labor seats
Marginal
Bundaberg	Leanne Donaldson	ALP	0.5
Mansfield	Ian Walker (LNP)	ALP	0.8
Mount Ommaney	Tarnya Smith (LNP)	ALP	1.0
Maryborough	Bruce Saunders	ALP	1.1
Burdekin	Dale Last (LNP)	ALP	1.4
Springwood	Mick de Brenni	ALP	1.4
Mundingburra	Coralee O'Rourke	ALP	1.8
McConnel	Grace Grace	ALP	3.1
Cooper	Kate Jones	ALP	3.3
Barron River	Craig Crawford	ALP	3.6
Mirani	Jim Pearce	ALP	3.8
Keppel	Brittany Lauga	ALP	4.1
Pine Rivers	Nikki Boyd	ALP	4.1
Greenslopes	Joe Kelly	ALP	5.0
Ferny Grove	Mark Furner	ALP	5.3
Stretton	Duncan Pegg	ALP	5.3
Miller	Mark Bailey	ALP	5.6
Townsville	Scott Stewart	ALP	5.7
Logan	Linus Power	ALP	5.9
Fairly safe
Bulimba	Di Farmer	ALP	6.1
Murrumba	Chris Whiting	ALP	6.3
Macalister	New seat	ALP	6.4
Capalaba	Don Brown	ALP	6.5
Thuringowa	Aaron Harper	ALP	6.6
Cook	Billy Gordon	ALP	6.8
Kurwongbah	Shane King	ALP	7.1
Redcliffe	Yvette D'Ath	ALP	7.6
Bancroft	Chris Whiting	ALP	8.3
Toohey	Peter Russo	ALP	8.3
Ipswich West	Jim Madden	ALP	9.1
Nudgee	Leanne Linard	ALP	9.2
Stafford	Anthony Lynham	ALP	9.3
Algester	Leeanne Enoch	ALP	9.6
Lytton	Joan Pease	ALP	9.9
Safe
Sandgate	Stirling Hinchliffe	ALP	10.1
Mackay	Julieanne Gilbert	ALP	10.2
Mulgrave	Curtis Pitt	ALP	12.9
Waterford	Shannon Fentiman	ALP	13.1
Jordan	New seat	ALP	13.5
Morayfield	Mark Ryan	ALP	13.5
South Brisbane	Jackie Trad	ALP	13.8
Rockhampton	Bill Byrne	ALP	14.0
Ipswich	Jennifer Howard	ALP	16.0
Very safe
Inala	Annastacia Palaszczuk	ALP	20.6
Gladstone	Glenn Butcher	ALP v IND	25.3
Woodridge	Cameron Dick	ALP	25.8
Bundamba	Jo-Ann Miller	ALP	25.9

Liberal National seats
Marginal
Whitsunday	Jason Costigan	LNP	0.6
Glass House	Andrew Powell	LNP	0.9
Redlands	Matt McEachan	LNP	1.2
Toowoomba North	Trevor Watts	LNP	1.6
Lockyer	Ian Rickuss	LNP v PHON	1.6
Bonney	New seat	LNP	2.2
Everton	Tim Mander	LNP	2.5
Gaven	Sid Cramp	LNP	2.8
Maiwar	Scott Emerson	LNP	3.0
Aspley	Tracy Davis	LNP	3.2
Hinchinbrook	Andrew Cripps	LNP	3.4
Chatsworth	Steve Minnikin	LNP	3.3
Caloundra	Mark McArdle	LNP	4.7
Theodore	Mark Boothman	LNP	5.3
Burleigh	Michael Hart	LNP	5.5
Currumbin	Jann Stuckey	LNP	5.7
Oodgeroo	Mark Robinson	LNP	5.7
Coomera	Michael Crandon	LNP	5.8
Fairly safe
Hervey Bay	Ted Sorensen	LNP	6.5
Burnett	Stephen Bennett	LNP	6.6
Clayfield	Tim Nicholls	LNP	6.6
Noosa	Glen Elmes	LNP	6.8
Ninderry	New seat	LNP	6.9
Gympie	Tony Perrett	LNP	7.6
Southport	Rob Molhoek	LNP	7.8
Moggill	Christian Rowan	LNP	8.1
Toowoomba South	David Janetzki	LNP	8.3
Scenic Rim	Jon Krause	LNP	9.2
Callide	Jeff Seeney	LNP	9.8
Safe
Kawana	Jarrod Bleijie	LNP	10.2
Maroochydore	Fiona Simpson	LNP	10.3
Mermaid Beach	Ray Stevens	LNP	10.3
Mudgeeraba	Ros Bates	LNP	10.3
Gregory	Lachlan Millar	LNP	10.4
Nanango	Deb Frecklington	LNP	13.3
Warrego	Ann Leahy	LNP	14.5
Broadwater	Verity Barton	LNP	16.3
Condamine	Pat Weir	LNP	17.1
Southern Downs	Lawrence Springborg	LNP	19.2
Very safe
Surfers Paradise	John-Paul Langbroek	LNP	20.4
Crossbench seats
Pumicestone	Rick Williams	IND (ALP v LNP)	0.1
Hill	Shane Knuth	KAP	4.9
Cairns	Rob Pyne	IND (ALP v LNP)	7.5
Buderim	Steve Dickson	PHON (LNP v ALP)	11.8
Traeger	Rob Katter	KAP v LNP	16.1

References edit

^ Green, Antony. "Pendulum - Queensland Votes 2017". ABC Elections. Retrieved 6 November 2017.

[abcpendulum-1] Green, Antony. "Pendulum - Queensland Votes 2017". ABC Elections. Retrieved 6 November 2017.

[1]

Summary

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