Sumner received a PhD in economics from the University of Chicago in 1985. His published research focuses on prediction markets and monetary policy.^[5]

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis, Sumner began authoring a blog where he vocally criticized the view that the United States economy was stuck in a liquidity trap.^[6] Sumner advocates that central banks such as the Federal Reserve create a futures market for the level of nominal gross domestic product (NGDP, also known as nominal income), and adjust monetary policy to achieve a nominal income target on the basis of information from the market. Monetary authorities generally choose to target other metrics, such as inflation, unemployment, the money supply or hybrids of these and rely on information from the financial markets, indices of unemployment or inflation, etc. to make monetary policy.^[7]

In 2015, Sumner published The Midas Paradox: A New Look at the Great Depression and Economic Instability. The book argued that the Depression was greatly extended by repeated gold market shocks and New Deal wage policies.

A school of economics known as market monetarism has coalesced around Sumner's views; The Daily Telegraph international business editor Ambrose Evans-Pritchard has referred to Sumner as the "eminence grise" of market monetarism.^[8] In 2012, the Chronicle of Higher Education referred to Sumner as "among the most influential" economist bloggers, along with Greg Mankiw of Harvard University and Paul Krugman of Princeton.^[9] In 2012, Foreign Policy ranked Sumner jointly with Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke 15th on its list of 100 top global thinkers.^[10]

Sumner contends that inflation is "measured inaccurately and does not discriminate between demand versus supply shocks" and that "Inflation often changes with a lag...but nominal GDP growth falls very, very quickly, so it'll give you a more timely signal stimulus is needed".^[11] He argued that monetary policy can offset fiscal austerity policies such as those pursued by the British government in the wake of the 2007 economic crisis.^[11]

In April 2011, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand responded to Sumner's critique of inflation targeting, arguing that a nominal GDP target would be too technically complicated, and make monetary policy difficult to communicate.^[12] By November 2011, however, economists from Goldman Sachs were advocating that the Federal Reserve adopt a nominal income target. Nathan Sheets, a former top official at the Federal Reserve and the head of international economics at Citigroup, proposed that the Federal Reserve adopt a nominal consumption target instead.^[13]

Sumner has argued that one cannot account for the impact of fiscal policy without first considering how monetary policy may affect the outcome; fiscal stimulus may not succeed if monetary policy is tightened in response. Economic journalists have referred to this as the Sumner Critique, akin to the Lucas critique.^[14] Summarizing this thinking, The Economist suggested that a growth rate of 5.3% would result in concerns over (future) inflation and tightening of monetary policy, largely because 5.3% is beyond both projections and goals of the Federal Reserve.^[15]

Sumner's views have been described as libertarian, and he has also used the label as a self-description.^[16][17][18]

China edit

Sumner has lamented what he sees as "anti-China" sentiment in the United States and Europe.^[19][20] In one post titled "cHiNa iS tHe reAL thReAt", using alternating caps, Sumner implies that Russia's military support of Alexander Lukashenko represents a bigger threat to the United States.^[21] Sumner has also juxtaposed the actions of China and Russia in another blog, where he said "I notice that Russia (which has far more nukes than China), actually does invade other countries. We worry that China might invade other countries".^[22] Sumner, frustrated by people he calls "morons", has attempted to prevent people from associating his views with support of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), has contrasted China, which he calls "a very good country of 1.4 billion people", with the CCP, which he describes as "a very evil government".^[23]

Chinese economy edit

Sumner is bullish on the Chinese economy, and has mocked various predictions made throughout the 2010s suggesting that the Chinese real estate market would collapse.^[24] Sumner has attributed the growth of the Chinese economy to economic growth in Europe.^[23] He also subscribes to a win-win philosophy regarding US-Chinese trade relations, describing one trade deal between the two countries as "a big win for China. And that’s means it’s a win for Americans".^[25]

Sumner does not believe that China is manipulating its currency.^[25]

Sumner has praised China's high-speed rail network.^[26]

Covid-19 pandemic edit

Sumner has criticized U.S. intelligence's findings in the origins of Covid-19,^[27] and opined that the virus could have originated in Thailand or Laos,^[28][29] citing a Wall Street Journal article and a Bloomberg article, respectively.^{[28][29][30][31]}

Sumner has praised China's handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, and has been critical of the handling of the pandemic in the United States and Europe, saying in one blog that "China succeeded against a crisis that was objectively far greater than the crisis faced by Europe and America".^[19] While the strict measures taken by the Chinese government, such as officials locking residents in their home to enforce quarantines, and assigning residents color codes to evaluate whether they should quarantine, have been criticized by journalists,^[32][33] Sumner praised the country's ability "to control the epidemic under difficult circumstances".^[19]

Sumner has criticized the slow development of the COVID-19 vaccines, blaming medical ethicists, and said that "thousands died" as a result of delays to the vaccines' development.^[34]

Donald Trump edit

Sumner is a vocal critic of Donald Trump, calling him "Putin's puppy",^[21] and opining that he has a "contempt for democracy".^[35] Sumner believes that Trump has a "longstanding infatuation" with Putin, citing a comment Trump made in which he called Putin "a leader far more than our president", referring to Barack Obama.^[35][36] Trump is a frequent target for criticism on his blog, as is Tucker Carlson,^[22][37][38] and Vladimir Putin;^[21][37] this has resulted in a number of ad hominem insults being directed at him in his blog's comment section.^[37][39] Sumner has taken to banning comments from people he calls "Russian trolls".^[37] Some of the deleted messages were links to articles published in the medical journal The Lancet.^{[citation needed]} These articles were contrary to the views of the prevailing orthodoxy.^{[citation needed][clarification needed]} Sumner has repeatedly used the term "Trump derangement syndrome" to describe support of Donald Trump, and has described support for Trump as "a personality cult".^[38] Sumner also believes that Trump encouraged China "to put Uighurs into concentration camps", citing a disputed claim made by former National Security Advisor John Bolton.^[22][40]

Sumner viewed the Trump administration's stance towards China as detrimental to the economies of both countries.^[25] Sumner views the two countries' 2019 trade agreement, negotiated in part by the Trump administration, as "a loss for the Trump administration", and added "I expected the Trump administration to lose, but not this badly".^[25] Sumner describes Trump's policy as "brazenly trying to steal money from the Chinese, and is igniting a cold war with China".^[22] Sumner has been critical of Trump's efforts to ban TikTok and WeChat in the United States,^[41] despite privacy concerns about TikTok.^[42]

Sumner has lambasted Trump for his handling of the Covid-19 pandemic, saying that Trump "would gladly kill enormous numbers of Americans to get re-elected" and that it was responsible for large amounts of American deaths.^[43] In one blog post, Sumner pondered whether Trump's policy had killed Americans, and stated that this was designed to make Trump "look good".^[43]

Sumner has been critical of the American media's response to the Trump presidency, saying that "the press has gone easy on Trump", and said that media outlets have a "shameful double standard" when it comes to covering Trump.^[44]

TikTok edit

Sumner hails the success of TikTok as "a truly heartwarming story of entrepreneurial success",^[34] and has criticized the Trump administration's efforts to ban it,^[41] despite concerns over potential privacy violations.^[42][45][46]

Sumner frequently visits China, owns Real Estate in China, and defends criticism against China. ^{[47] [48] [49]} Well known in Bentley's economics department as a "technophobe," Sumner, who purchased his first cell phone in 2011, apparently "triggered expressions of surprise and amusement when he informed his colleagues that he was starting a blog."^[2]

Books edit

• Sumner, Scott B. (2021). The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. ISBN 978-0226773681.
• Sumner, Scott B. (2015). The Midas Paradox: A New Look at the Great Depression and Economic Instability. Independent Institute. ISBN 978-1-59813-150-5.
• Sumner, Scott B. (2015). "What Would Milton Friedman Have Thought of Market Monetarism?". In Cord, Robert A.; Hammond, J. Daniel (eds.). Milton Friedman: Contributions to Economics and Public Policy. Oxford University Press. pp. 246–264. ISBN 9780198704324.
• Sumner, Scott B. (2012). "5. How Nominal GDP Targeting Could Have Prevented the Crash of 2008". In Beckworth, David (ed.). Boom and Bust Banking: The Causes and Cures of the Great Recession. Independent Institute. pp. 129–165. ISBN 978-1-59813-076-8.

Articles edit

The Hill edit

• Sumner, Scott (November 25, 2021). "The politics of carbon taxes versus clean energy subsidies". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved March 1, 2022.
• Sumner, Scott (July 8, 2021). "An economist's perspective on 'gain-of-function' virus research". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved November 2, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (April 29, 2021). "Should we worry about inflation? Not yet". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved June 3, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (February 17, 2021). "Beware the new price bubbles? Not so fast". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (January 6, 2021). "Lessons from the pandemic: Don't let the perfect be the enemy of the good". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (September 17, 2020). "New Fed approach takes inflation targeting more seriously". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (August 12, 2020). "Can the Fed reduce racial inequality?". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (January 15, 2020). "Trump's policies are increasing, not decreasing, the trade deficit". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (June 21, 2019). "Crafting monetary policy for the 21st century economy". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (April 10, 2019). "A better Modern Monetary Theory". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (February 23, 2019). "The Fed steers the ship, but we deserve to know where we're headed". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (January 25, 2019). "Tax-and-spend progressives put faith in flawed policy theory". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (October 7, 2018). "In search of real — not nominal — wage gains". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (August 19, 2018). "An even bigger China shock". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (July 2, 2018). "The Federal Reserve must modernize its approach". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (October 20, 2017). "Lessons from 'Black Monday': It's not easy to spot bubbles". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (February 14, 2017). "Three Recommendations for Monetary Policy Compromise". The Hill. Capitol Hill Publishing Corporation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.

U.S. News & World Report edit

• Sumner, Scott (December 26, 2017). "Low Inflation Nation". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (July 10, 2017). "Demystify the Fed". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott; Horan, Patrick (May 30, 2017). "Fed Up With Congress". U.S. News & World Report. Retrieved April 18, 2021.

Mercatus Center edit

• Sumner, Scott (October 19, 2021). "The Princeton School and the Zero Lower Bound". Mercatus Center.
• Horan, Patrick; Sumner, Scott; Beckworth, David; Russo, Christopher M. (July 12, 2021). "What's Going On at the Federal Reserve?". Discourse. Mercatus Center. Retrieved November 2, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (November 23, 2020). "A Critique of Interest Rate–Oriented Monetary Economics". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott; Erdmann, Kevin (August 4, 2020). "Housing Policy, Monetary Policy, and the Great Recession". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott; Horan, Patrick (April 2, 2020). "Reforming the Fed's Toolkit and Quantitative Easing Practices: A Plan to Achieve Level Targeting". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (February 18, 2020). "Currency Manipulation, Saving Manipulation, and the Current Account Balance". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (February 18, 2020). "Currency Manipulation: Reframing the Debate". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (September 12, 2019). "Should the Fed Pay Interest on Bank Reserves?". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (August 27, 2019). "The Relationship between Interest Rates and Monetary Policy". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (August 13, 2019). "How the Fed Controls Monetary Policy". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (April 25, 2019). "Understanding the Federal Reserve". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott; Horan, Patrick (March 11, 2019). "How Reliable Is Modern Monetary Theory as a Guide to Policy?". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (November 15, 2018). "How to Improve Fed Accountability and Transparency". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (October 8, 2018). "How Prediction Markets Can Improve Monetary Policy: A Case Study". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (July 2, 2018). "Explaining Quantitative Easing". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott; Roberts, Ethan (March 19, 2018). "The Promise of Nominal GDP Targeting". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (September 11, 2013). "Why the Fiscal Multiplier is Roughly Zero". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (July 24, 2013). "A Market-Driven Nominal GDP Targeting Regime". Mercatus Center.
• Sumner, Scott (October 23, 2012). "The Case for Nominal GDP Targeting". Mercatus Center.

Cato Institute edit

• Sumner, Scott (2016). "Nudging the Fed Toward a Rules-Based Policy Regime" (PDF). Cato Journal. 36 (2). Cato Institute: 315–335.
• Sumner, Scott B. (2014). "Nominal GDP Targeting: A Simple Rule to Improve Fed Performance" (PDF). Cato Journal. 34 (2). Cato Institute: 315–337.
• Sumner, Scott (December 2, 2013). "Central Banks Can and Do Hit Inflation Targets". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (November 25, 2013). "Asset Prices, Inflation, and Interest Rates". Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (November 22, 2013). "The Fed Was a Mistake. But Now That We Have It…". Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (November 8, 2013). "In Defense of a Flexible Monetary Policy". Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (Fall 2011). "Re-Targeting the Fed". National Affairs (37). National Affairs, Inc.
• Sumner, Scott (October 1, 2009). "Final Thoughts and Thanks". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 30, 2009). "We Can't Agree on Everything, George…". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 29, 2009). "Defining the Stance of Monetary Policy Is Harder than It Looks". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 29, 2009). "Clearing up Some Miscommunication". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 28, 2009). "Score-Keeping with Selgin". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 25, 2009). "From Discretion to Futures Targeting, One Step at a Time". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 23, 2009). "Almost on the Money: Replies to Hamilton, Selgin, and Hummel". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (September 14, 2009). "The Real Problem was Nominal". Cato Unbound. Cato Institute.
• Sumner, Scott (2002). "Some Observations on the Return of the Liquidity Trap" (PDF). Cato Journal. 21 (3). Cato Institute: 481–490.

Others edit

• Sumner, Scott B. (March 28, 2018). "The problem with central bankers' inflation preoccupation". CapX. Centre for Policy Studies. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (November 2, 2017). "Trump wants a non-economist to lead the Fed. That could be dangerous". The Washington Post. Nash Holdings. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (2016). "The Fed and the Great Recession: How Better Monetary Policy Can Avert the Next Crisis". Foreign Affairs. Council on Foreign Relations.
• Sumner, Scott B. (May 13, 2016). "The Curious Rise of the Push for $15 Wage". Orange County Register. Digital First Media. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (February 4, 2016). "Are Congress and the Fed Repeating the Mistakes of the Depression?". The Fiscal Times. The Fiscal Times Media Group. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (December 4, 2015). "Translating 'Fedspeak' into English Shouldn't Be So Hard". American Banker. Arizent. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (October 2015). "Milton Friedman Saw the Euro Crisis Coming". Reason. Reason Foundation. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott; Erdmann, Kevin (June 8, 2015). "Here's What's Driving Inequality". National Review. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott (March 2015). "What Would Milton Friedman Have Thought of the Great Recession?". The American Journal of Economics and Sociology. 74 (2). Wiley-Blackwell: 209–235. doi:10.1111/ajes.12097.
• Sumner, Scott B. (March 1, 2015). "Is It Fair to Tax Capital Gains at Lower Rates Than Earned Income?". The Wall Street Journal. News Corp. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• "Economists on the Welfare State and the Regulatory State: Why Don't Any Argue in Favor of One and Against the Other?" (PDF). Econ Journal Watch. 12 (1). Fraser Institute: 2–14. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott B. (August 6, 2013). "A new way to run the U.S. economy". Politico. Retrieved April 18, 2021.
• Sumner, Scott; Jackson, Aaron L. (October 2006). "Velocity Futures Markets: Does the Fed Need A Structural Model?". Economic Inquiry. 44 (4). Wiley-Blackwell: 716–728. doi:10.1093/ei/cbj044.
• Sumner, Scott (2000). "Is Nonprice Competition in Currency Inefficient?". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 32 (1). Ohio State University Press: 146–149. doi:10.2307/2601097. JSTOR 2601097.
• Sumner, Scott; Gulley, O. David; Newman, Ross (1998). "Money demand and nominal debt: An equilibrium model of the liquidity effect". Journal of Macroeconomics. 20 (2). Elsevier: 267–293. doi:10.1016/S0164-0704(98)00057-3.
• Sumner, Scott (November 1997). "Reply to Garrison and White". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 29 (4). Ohio State University Press: 542–545. doi:10.2307/2953713. JSTOR 2953713.
• Sumner, Scott (February 1995). "The Impact of Futures Price Targeting on the Precision and Credibility of Monetary Policy". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 27 (1). Wiley-Blackwell: 89–106. doi:10.2307/2077852. JSTOR 2077852.
• Sumner, Scott; Silver, Stephen (January 1995). "Nominal and Real Wage Cyclicality during the Interwar Period". Southern Economic Journal. 61 (3). Southern Economic Association: 109–118. JSTOR 1060983.
• Sumner, Scott (October 1994). "A Note on the Viability of an 'Indirectly Convertible' Gold Standard". Southern Economic Journal. 61 (2). Southern Economic Association: 530–533. doi:10.2307/1059998. JSTOR 1059998.
• Sumner, Scott (March 1993). "Colonial Currency and the Quantity Theory of Money: A Critique of Smith's Interpretation". The Journal of Economic History. 53 (1). Cambridge University Press: 139–145. doi:10.1017/S0022050700012420. JSTOR 2123179. S2CID 155035369.
• Sumner, Scott (February 1993). "Privatizing the Mint". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 25 (1). Ohio State University Press: 13–29. doi:10.2307/2077817. JSTOR 2077817.
• Sumner, Scott (1992). "The Gold Standard, Monetary Policy, and the Banking School - Currency School Debate". Eastern Economic Journal. 18 (3). Palgrave Macmillan: 345–358. JSTOR 40325457.
• Sumner, Scott (February 1990). "The Forerunners of 'New Monetary Economics' Proposals to Stabilize the Unit of Account: Note". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 22 (1). Ohio State University Press: 109–118. doi:10.2307/1992131. JSTOR 1992131.
• Sumner, Scott; Grubaugh, Stephen (August 1989). "Commodity Prices, Money Surprises, and Fed Credibility: Comment". Journal of Money, Credit and Banking. 21 (3). Ohio State University Press: 407–408. doi:10.2307/1992424. JSTOR 1992424.
• Sumner, Scott; Silver, Stephen (June 1989). "Real Wages, Employment, and the Phillips Curve". Journal of Political Economy. 97 (3). University of Chicago Press: 706–720. doi:10.1086/261623. JSTOR 1830462. S2CID 154849270.

• Market monetarism
• Nominal income target

• Mercatus.org
• Faculty webpage at Bentley University
• Blog
• Marginal revolutionaries, The Economist, December 31, 2011
• Roberts, Russ. "Scott Sumner Podcasts". EconTalk. Library of Economics and Liberty.
• "Scott Sumner". JSTOR.