While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission, with Hyun-Song Shin.[7][9] He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and Arturo Estrella [Wikidata].[10] This is based on earlier work with Estrella that documented the forecasting power of the yield curve.[8] Adrian also worked on widely adopted yield curve models with Richard Crump and Emanuel Moench [Wikidata].[11]
Together with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of systemic risk, the CoVaR.[12] This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to stress test banks following the great recession.[13]
More recently, Adrian has studied how financial conditions present asymmetric risks to GDP growth with Domenico Giannone [Wikidata] and Nina Boyarchenko [Wikidata].[19] This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions.[20] With Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions.[21][22][23][24] Their work establishes a novel economic foundation for climate finance.[22][23][24][25]
Selected worksedit
Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (2010). "Liquidity and leverage". Journal of Financial Intermediation. 19 (3). Elsevier BV: 418–437. doi:10.1016/j.jfi.2008.12.002. ISSN 1042-9573.
Adrian, Tobias; Ashcraft, Adam; Boesky, Hayley; Pozsar, Zoltan (2013). "Shadow Banking". Economic Policy Review. 19 (2). Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Adrian, Tobias; Brunnermeier, Markus K. (June 2016). "CoVaR". American Economic Review. 106 (7). American Economic Association: 1705–1741. doi:10.1257/aer.20120555. ISSN 0002-8282.
^ abAdrian, Tobias (2003). Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing. DSpace@MIT Home (Thesis). hdl:1721.1/17571. Retrieved 2 July 2021.
^ abGmbH, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (29 November 2016). "Tobias Adrian: Ein Deutsch-Amerikaner wird neuer IWF-Finanzmarktchef" [A German-American becomes the new head of financial markets at the IMF]. Faz.net (in German). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Retrieved 17 July 2021.
^"People: Tobias Adrian to replace Viñals at IMF". Central Banking. 30 November 2016. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
^"Tobias Adrian sustituirá a José Viñals en el FMI" [Tobias Adrian will replace José Viñals at the IMF]. el Economista. 26 November 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2021.
^ abc"Dr. Tobias Adrian". Goethe-Universität (in German). Retrieved 17 July 2021.
^"The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility". Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
^ abAdrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (1 March 2009). "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy". American Economic Review. 99 (2). American Economic Association: 600–605. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.600. hdl:10419/60788. ISSN 0002-8282.
^ abAdrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo (1 April 2008). "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity". Economics Letters. 99 (2): 260–264. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2007.07.007. hdl:10419/60761. ISSN 0165-1765. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
^Adrian, Tobias; Song Shin, Hyun (1 December 2009). Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics. Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3. pp. 601–650. doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00012-0. hdl:10419/60885. ISBN 9780444534705. ISSN 1573-4498. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
^Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo; Shin, Hyun Song (23 April 2019). "Risk‐taking channel of monetary policy". Financial Management. 48 (3). Wiley: 725–738. doi:10.1111/fima.12256. ISSN 0046-3892. S2CID 158109152.
^Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel (1 September 2013). "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions". Journal of Financial Economics. 110 (1): 110–138. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.04.009. hdl:10419/60737. ISSN 0304-405X. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
^Adrian, Tobias; Kiff, John; Shin, Hyun Song (2018). "Liquidity, Leverage, and Regulation 10 Years After the Global Financial Crisis". Annual Review of Financial Economics. 10 (1). Annual Reviews: 1–24. doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023113. ISSN 1941-1367. S2CID 158419019.
^"Tobias Adrian". Google Scholar. Retrieved 19 July 2021.
^Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (1 March 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review. 109 (4). American Economic Association: 1263–1289. doi:10.1257/aer.20161923. ISSN 0002-8282. S2CID 32943592.
^Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (22 March 2021). "Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics" (PDF). International Economic Review. 62 (2). Wiley: 861–886. doi:10.1111/iere.12501. hdl:10419/210755. ISSN 0020-6598. S2CID 234040176.
^Adrian, Tobias; Bolton, Patrick; Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa (1 June 2022). "The Great Carbon Arbitrage". International Monetary Fund. Working Paper No. 2022/107.
^ abIFC-IEA (21 June 2023). Scaling up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies(PDF). International Energy Agency & International Finance Corporation.
^ abTett, Gillian (13 June 2022). "Killing coal: a new way to get investors involved". Financial Times.
^ abGFANZ (June 2023). "Financing the Managed Phaseout of Coal-Fired Power Plants in Asia Pacific" (PDF). Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero. Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
^Prasad, Ananthakrishnan (27 July 2022). "Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies". IMF eLibrary.