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Warnings (book)

Summary

Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes is a book published by HarperCollins Ecco and written by former United States intelligence and counterterrorism official Richard A. Clarke, and former White House National Security Council Director, and U.S. and UN senior diplomat R. P. Eddy.[1] The book offers a framework, "The Cassandra Coefficient," to help determine which warnings decisions makers should look into more closely, and if some warnings deserve less attention. The case studies range from national security, to threatening technologies, to the global economy, to climate change and speculates on various potential threats to civilization.[2]

Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes
AuthorRichard A. Clarke and R. P. Eddy
CountryUnited States
LanguageEnglish
GenreHistory, non-fiction
PublisherHarperCollins
Publication date
2017
Media typePrint (hardback)
ISBN978-0-06-248802-2

Content edit

The authors cover seven case studies in which data driven, proven, credible experts specifically warned of a pending catastrophe, were ignored by the decision makers, and the disaster subsequently struck just as predicted. The authors call these seers "Cassandras" after the Greek mythological figure who could foretell disaster but was cursed to never be believed. The authors propose a method to separate accurate predictions of danger from inaccurate doomsayers, "The Cassandra Coefficient." They then investigate experts who today are warning of future disasters—the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, mutating viruses, and more—and whose calls are not being heeded. The concluding chapter describes how individuals and organizations can employ the Cassandra Coefficient, hedging and "sentinel intelligence," to watch potential disasters so as to not be surprised by them, and expend the necessary remediative resources only when necessary.[3][4]

Reception edit

Warnings was lauded and recommended by President Bill Clinton (who noted it on his recommended reading list),[5] Henry Kissinger,[6] Sen. George Mitchell,[7] Gen. Michael Hayden,[8] Commissioner William J. Bratton[9] and Lawrence Wright.[10]

It was a Publishers Weekly best seller, the #1 Best Seller on Amazon in four categories, and a top 15 seller of all books on Amazon.[11] The book enjoyed positive reviews in The Washington Times,[12] Insider Hook (formerly Real Clear Life),[13] Kirkus,[14] and on Good Morning America.[15]

Warnings won the Axiom 2018 Business Book of the year, silver medal.[16]

In her book What Happened and subsequent interviews, Hillary Clinton referred to Warnings and noted the value the Cassandra Theory could have had to encourage decision makers to take the Russian hacking threat in the 2016 U.S. presidential election more seriously.[17]

The authors have also started a foundation to reward annual prizes to present day “Cassandras.”[18]

References edit

  1. ^ Richard, Clarke; Eddy, R.P. (May 23, 2017). Warnings Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes. New York: HarperCollins Ecco. pp. 416 pages. ISBN 9780062488046.
  2. ^ Weiss, Joe (August 21, 2017). "Cassandra coefficient and ICS cyber – is this why the system is broken". controlglobal.com. Unfettered Blog. Retrieved July 14, 2022. Chapter 9 of Richard Clarke and R.P. Eddy's book, Warning – Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, is defining the "Casandra Coefficient". In reading the chapter, many of the issues that have prevented industry from adequately addressing ICS cyber security became very clear to me. It will interesting to see how people who read this blog see themselves and compare it to Dale Peterson's views. The four components of the Cassandra Coefficient are (1) the warning, the threat or risk in question, (2) the decision makers or audience who must react, (3) the predictor or possible Cassandra, and (4) the critics who disparage or reject the warning. I have chosen actual cases to validate the book's hypotheses. The overwhelming response to almost of all of the questions as to why ICS cyber security can be catastrophic and why there is a need for a Cassandra is the children's book – The Emperor Wears No Clothes.
  3. ^ "Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. May 23, 2017. Retrieved July 14, 2022. Warnings is the story of the future of national security, threatening technologies, the U.S. economy, and possibly the fate of civilization. In Greek mythology Cassandra foresaw calamities, but was cursed by the gods to be ignored. Modern-day Cassandras clearly predicted the disasters of Katrina, Fukushima, the Great Recession, the rise of ISIS, the spread of viruses and many more. Like the mythological Cassandra, they were ignored. There are others right now warning of impending disasters—from cyber attacks to pandemics—but how do we know which warnings are likely to be right? Through riveting explorations in a variety of fields, the authors—both accomplished CEOs and White House National Security Council veterans—discover a method to separate the accurate Cassandras from the crazy doomsayers. They then investigate the experts who today are warning of future disasters: the threats from artificial intelligence, bio-hacking, malware attacks, and more, and whose calls are not being heeded. Clarke's and Eddy's penetrating insights are essential for any person, any business, or any government that doesn't want to be a blind victim of tomorrow's catastrophe.
  4. ^ "Kirkus Reviews Warnings Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes". kirkusreviews.com. Kirkus reviews. Retrieved July 14, 2022. Why we should heed the warnings of qualified experts and how the failure to do so in the past has led to avoidable disasters.Bestselling nonfiction author and novelist Clarke (Pinnacle Event, 2015, etc.) worked as a counterterrorism adviser for Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, but his warnings about the threat of an attack by al-Qaida were repeatedly ignored. Eddy, a former director of the National Security Council, is the CEO of Ergo, a global intelligence firm. As the authors demonstrate in a narrative that occasionally bogs down in figures and numerous bulleted sections, just as the Trojans failed to heed the warnings of a Greek attack by the mythical Princess Cassandra, the warnings of modern policy advisers are often ignored. Some of the major examples of the past century include the attack on Pearl Harbor, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. In current-day usage, the label is often attached to stock analysts who specialize in predicting the direction of the markets. The authors cite Meredith Whitney, "a young analyst at a mid-tier research house," as a perfect example of a modern Cassandra in action. "Despite the bursting of the dot-com bubble between 1999 and 2001," they write, "the stock market appeared to be as strong as ever." But Whitney, shocked to discover that Citigroup, one of the world's largest banks, was paying out more to investors than it was earning in profits, downgraded its rating, "the equivalent of a call to sell the stock." In August 2008, Fortune described Whitney as "the woman who called Wall Street's meltdown." Further warnings by experts on a variety of issues—e.g., the growth of artificial intelligence or meteor strikes—are also being ignored. Clarke and Eddy suggest the need for a watchdog group to monitor threats and recommend appropriate responses.
  5. ^ Hess, Abigail (August 10, 2017). "12 books Bill Clinton hopes you'll enjoy reading as much as he did". CNBC. Retrieved July 14, 2022. In honor of National Book Lovers Day, former President Bill Clinton took to social media on Tuesday to share some of his favorite titles. The books he recommends range from suspenseful thrillers like "House of Spies," by Daniel Silva to political non-fiction like "Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes," by Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy
  6. ^ "Warnings -Richard A. Clarke". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. Retrieved July 14, 2022. "Warnings is an important book, vividly presenting a way for leaders to make crucial decisions." — Henry Kissinger
  7. ^ "Warnings -Richard A. Clarke". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. Retrieved July 14, 2022. "Clarke and Eddy's veteran insight will be required reading for those who want to win in a future dominated by technologies and national security threats most haven't even begun to ponder." — Senator George Mitchell
  8. ^ "Warnings -Richard A. Clarke". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. Retrieved July 14, 2022. "Now, more than ever, you should read this book and learn from two of the very best. A gripping read and a brilliant view of an uncertain future. Clarke and Eddy deliver veteran insights all leaders need to hear." — General Michael Hayden (Ret.), former CIA director
  9. ^ "Warnings -Richard A. Clarke". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. Retrieved July 14, 2022. "A must read. In an increasingly risky world, finding people who see around corners is key—but once you've found them, it's just as important to listen. We need to listen to Clarke and Eddy, their leadership and vision has been second to none for decades, and they are right again." — William Bratton, former NYPD Commissioner
  10. ^ "Warnings -Richard A. Clarke". harperacademic.com. Harper Academic. Retrieved July 14, 2022. "Fascinating. Richard Clarke and R. P. Eddy try to construct a science that separates the true prophets from the fantasists. It's a fascinating account, and oh, if we'd only paid attention…!" — Lawrence Wright, Pulitzer Prize-winning author of The Looming Tower and The Terror Years
  11. ^ "Apple iBooks Category Bestsellers, July 2, 2017". publishersweekly.com. Publishers Weekly. July 2, 2017. Retrieved July 14, 2022.
  12. ^ Sinai, Joshua (June 5, 2017). "BOOK REVIEW: 'Warnings: Finding Cassandras to stop Catastrophes'". washingtontimes.com. The Washington Times. Retrieved July 14, 2022. This book is about the capability to forecast future trends, particularly impending disasters, in spite of conventional wisdom's usual dismissal of such warnings, which is part of what is termed the Cassandra complex. Cassandra, the authors explain, was a Greek princess who was endowed with "the ability to see impending doom, but the inability to persuade anyone to believe in her." The authors are well qualified to write about decisions at the highest level. Richard Clarke is a veteran national security expert in the U.S. government and White House, with his co-author, R.P. Eddy, the CEO of Ergo, a business intelligence firm, based in New York.
  13. ^ Sacks, Ethan (May 24, 2017). "'Warnings' Delivered by New Book: Ignoring 'Cassandras' Is Inviting Extinction". insidehook.com. Inside Hook (formerly Real Clear Life). Retrieved July 14, 2022. The climate scientist, using computer modeling, suggests a nuclear winter could still be very much in the forecast, and he's been trying to galvanize government response to prepare for the possibility of one. He is among the real-life oracles profiled in the new book, Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, which was co-authored by former White House staffers R.P. Eddy and Richard Clarke. "As the Soviet-U.S. tensions have resolved and it's less likely for us to throw nuclear weapons at each other … people kind of forgot about the threat of nuclear winter," Eddy told RealClearLife.
  14. ^ "Kirkus Reviews Warnings Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes". kirkusreviews.com. Kirkus reviews. Retrieved July 14, 2022. Why we should heed the warnings of qualified experts and how the failure to do so in the past has led to avoidable disasters.Bestselling nonfiction author and novelist Clarke (Pinnacle Event, 2015, etc.) worked as a counterterrorism adviser for Presidents Ronald Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Bill Clinton, but his warnings about the threat of an attack by al-Qaida were repeatedly ignored. Eddy, a former director of the National Security Council, is the CEO of Ergo, a global intelligence firm. As the authors demonstrate in a narrative that occasionally bogs down in figures and numerous bulleted sections, just as the Trojans failed to heed the warnings of a Greek attack by the mythical Princess Cassandra, the warnings of modern policy advisers are often ignored. Some of the major examples of the past century include the attack on Pearl Harbor, the devastating aftermath of Hurricane Katrina, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster in Japan. In current-day usage, the label is often attached to stock analysts who specialize in predicting the direction of the markets. The authors cite Meredith Whitney, "a young analyst at a mid-tier research house," as a perfect example of a modern Cassandra in action. "Despite the bursting of the dot-com bubble between 1999 and 2001," they write, "the stock market appeared to be as strong as ever." But Whitney, shocked to discover that Citigroup, one of the world's largest banks, was paying out more to investors than it was earning in profits, downgraded its rating, "the equivalent of a call to sell the stock." In August 2008, Fortune described Whitney as "the woman who called Wall Street's meltdown." Further warnings by experts on a variety of issues—e.g., the growth of artificial intelligence or meteor strikes—are also being ignored. Clarke and Eddy suggest the need for a watchdog group to monitor threats and recommend appropriate responses.
  15. ^ "Security expert Richard Clarke opens up about his new book 'Warnings'". goodmorningamerica.com. Good Morning America. May 29, 2017. The security expert discusses how he believes some catastrophes could have been prevented with ABC News' Dan Harris.
  16. ^ "2018 Winners". www.axiomawards.com. Retrieved July 14, 2022. SILVER: Warnings: Finding Cassandras to Stop Catastrophes, by Richard A. Clarke and R.P. Eddy (Ecco)
  17. ^ Favre, Malika (September 13, 2017). "Hillary Clinton Looks Back in Anger". newyorker.com. The New Yorker. Retrieved July 14, 2022. Now she did not hesitate. "I think we were mushy," she said. "Partly because we couldn't believe it. Richard Clarke, who is one of our nation's experts on terrorism, has written a book about Cassandras," unheeded predictors of calamity. "And there was a collective Cassandra out there—my campaign was part of that—saying, 'The Russians are in our electoral system, the Russians are weaponizing information, look at it!' And everybody in the press basically thought we were overstating, exaggerating, making it up. And Comey wouldn't confirm an investigation, so there was nothing to hold on to. And I think that the point Clarke makes is when you have an initial occurrence that has never happened before, some people might see it and try to warn about it, but most people would find it unlikely, impossible. And what I fear is we still haven't gotten to the bottom of what the Russians did."
  18. ^ "Reddit AMA - We are Richard Clarke and R.P. Eddy, two national security and counterterrorism experts, here to answer your questions about terrorism and other threats to mankind". Reddit. reddit.com. May 31, 2017. Retrieved July 14, 2022. So, as we do publicity for this book, we are also announcing a new global effort to find other credible, but unheard warnings. We are joined by Gen. Michael Hayden, Laurie Garrett and Meredith Whitney (two of our Cassandras), Mark Gerson, and others in the formation of the Annual Cassandra Award. We have create a non-profit (501-C3) foundation, and are SOLICTING NOMINATIONS for potential "Cassandras" - credible people who are warning of catastrophe, but being ignored. DO you have ideas for future threats that are not getting the attention they need? Please go to: www.findcassandra.com and nominate them. We will announce a winner each year.

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