2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

Summary

The 2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey was held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated.[1] New Jersey voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote, pitting the Republican Party's nominee, incumbent President Donald Trump, and running mate Vice President Mike Pence against Democratic Party nominee, former Vice President Joe Biden, and his running mate California Senator Kamala Harris. New Jersey has 14 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]

2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey

← 2016 November 3, 2020 2024 →
TurnoutIncrease 72%
 
Nominee Joe Biden Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Delaware Florida
Running mate Kamala Harris Mike Pence
Electoral vote 14 0
Popular vote 2,608,400 1,883,313
Percentage 57.34% 41.40%


President before election

Donald Trump
Republican

Elected President

Joe Biden
Democratic

Biden carried New Jersey by 15.94%, making the state 11.49% more Democratic than the nation as a whole. Per exit polls by the Associated Press, Biden's victory came from a coalition of key Democratic constituencies, including 86% of Blacks, 76% of Asians, 72% of Hispanic and Latino Americans, and 50% of Whites.[3] Biden's strength with Asian Americans was evident in New Jersey, where Asians constituted 10.0% of the population in 2019.[4][5]

Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was reliably Democratic until Trump flipped it in 2016. He also became the first Democrat since Lyndon B. Johnson in 1964 to win Morris County, which Cory Booker won in the simultaneous senate election.[6] This also became the first presidential election since 2000 in which Salem County did not vote for the national winner.[12][13] Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, fewer than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310.[14] Biden's 2.6 million votes is the most received by any candidate of either party in a presidential election in the state's history.

Primary elections edit

The primary elections were originally scheduled for June 2, 2020. In April, they were moved to July 7 due to concerns over the COVID-19 pandemic.[15] On May 15, 2020, Governor Phil Murphy signed an executive order declaring the primary election to become a primarily vote-by-mail election. Democratic and Republican voters will automatically receive a vote-by-mail ballot while unaffiliated and inactive voters will get a vote-by-mail application. Unaffiliated voters must declare their party in the application and send in to their respective county board of elections in order to vote and receive their primary election ballot. A limited number of polling stations in each county will be available on primary day for those who prefer to vote in person (including with provisional ballots if they're unable to obtain one) and for voters with disabilities.[16]

Republican primary edit

Incumbent President Donald Trump ran unopposed in the Republican primary.[17] The state has 49 delegates to the 2020 Republican National Convention.[18]

2020 New Jersey Republican primary
Candidate Votes % Delegates
Donald Trump 457,212 100 49
Total 457,212 100.00 49

Democratic primary edit

2020 New Jersey Democratic presidential primary[19]
Candidate Votes % Delegates[20]
Joe Biden 814,188 84.92 121
Bernie Sanders (withdrawn) 140,412 14.65 5
Uncommitted 4,162 0.43
Total 958,762 100% 126

Green primary edit

New Jersey Green Party presidential primary, May 2, 2020[21][better source needed]
Candidate Votes Percentage[a] National delegates
Howie Hawkins 44 78.6% 5
Dario Hunter 4 7.1% 0
Jesse Ventura 3 5.4% 0
Sedinam Moyowasifza-Curry 2 3.6% 0
Bernie Sanders 2 3.6% 0
Kent Mesplay 1 1.8% 0
Susan Buchser-Lochocki 0 0% 0
Dennis Lambert 0 0% 0
Chad Wilson 0 0% 0
David Rolde 0 0% 0
Total 56 100.00% 5

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[22] Solid D October 28, 2020
Inside Elections[23] Safe D October 16, 2020
Sabato's Crystal Ball[24] Safe D October 8, 2020
Politico[25] Safe D September 8, 2020
RCP[26] Likely D August 3, 2020
Niskanen[27] Safe D July 26, 2020
CNN[28] Safe D August 3, 2020
The Economist[29] Safe D September 2, 2020
CBS News[30] Likely D September 27, 2020
270towin[31] Safe D August 2, 2020
ABC News[32] Safe D July 31, 2020
NPR[33] Likely D October 30, 2020
NBC News[34] Likely D August 6, 2020
538[35] Solid D September 27, 2020
Fox News[36] Likely D November 2, 2020

Polling edit

Graphical summary edit

Aggregate polls edit

Source of poll
aggregation
Dates
administered
Dates
updated
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Donald
Trump

Republican
Other/
Undecided
[b]
Margin
270 to Win October 9 – November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 56.5% 37.3% 6.2% Biden +19.2
Real Clear Politics September 4 – October 13, 2020 November 3, 2020 54.7% 37.3% 8.0% Biden +17.4
FiveThirtyEight until November 2, 2020 November 3, 2020 58.4% 37.9% 3.7% Biden +20.4
Average 56.5% 37.5% 7.8% Biden +19.0
Polls
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size[c]
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump

Republican
Joe
Biden

Democratic
Jo
Jorgensen

Libertarian
Howie
Hawkins

Green
Other Undecided
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 20 – Nov 2, 2020 3,870 (LV) ± 2% 38%[d] 59% - -
Research Co. Oct 31 – Nov 1, 2020 450 (LV) ± 4.6% 40% 59% - - 1%[e] 5%
Swayable Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine Oct 27 – Nov 1, 2020 324 (LV) ± 7.2% 40% 59% 1% 0%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Oct 1–28, 2020 6,472 (LV) 37% 60% - -
Swayable Oct 23–26, 2020 386 (LV) ± 6.5% 38% 62% 0% 0%
Rutgers-Eagleton Oct 19–24, 2020 834 (LV) ± 4% 37% 59% - - 1%[f] 1%
Stockton College Oct 7–13, 2020 721 (LV) ± 3.7% 36% 56% - -
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Oct 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 34% 56% - - 10%[g]
Fairleigh Dickinson University Sep 30 – Oct 5, 2020 582 (LV) ± 4.6% 38% 53% - - 5%[h] 4%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Sep 1–30, 2020 2,952 (LV) 37% 60% - - 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Sep 8–16, 2020 501 (LV) ± 4.4% 38% 52% - - 10%[g]
Emerson College Sep 4–7, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.4% 40%[i] 58% - - 2%[j]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Aug 1–31, 2020 2,309 (LV) 40% 57% - - 3%
DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Aug 5–13, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 52% - - 15%[k]
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jul 1–31, 2020 2,426 (LV) 37% 61% - - 2%
Pollfish/DKC Analytics/Brach Eichler Jul 7–12, 2020 500 (LV) ± 4.383% 33% 51% - - 7%[l] 8%
SurveyMonkey/Axios Jun 8–30, 2020 1,110 (LV) 37% 61% - - 3%
Quinnipiac Apr 30 – May 4, 2020 941 (RV) ± 3.2% 35% 54% - - 3%[m] 8%
Rutgers-Eagleton Apr 22 – May 2, 2020 689 (RV) ± 4.2% 33% 56% - - 5%[n] 7%
Monmouth University Apr 16–19, 2020 635 (RV) ± 3.9% 38% 54% - - 2% 6%
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 35% 53% - -
Former candidates
Donald Trump vs. Bernie Sanders
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Bernie
Sanders (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 53%
Donald Trump vs. Elizabeth Warren
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Elizabeth
Warren (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 50%
Donald Trump vs. Michael Bloomberg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Michael
Bloomberg (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 32% 56%
Donald Trump vs. Pete Buttigieg
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Pete
Buttigieg (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 48%
Donald Trump vs. Amy Klobuchar
Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Donald
Trump (R)
Amy
Klobuchar (D)
Other Undecided
Fairleigh Dickinson University Feb 12–16, 2020 715 (RV) 36% 47%

Results edit

 
Results of the general election by municipality, darker colors indicate higher win percentage:
-Blue municipalities won by Biden
-Red municipalities won by Trump
 
Swing from 2016 to 2020 by each municipality, darker colors indicate a higher swing from 2016:
-Blue municipalities swung towards Biden
-Red municipalities swung towards Trump
2020 United States presidential election in New Jersey[37]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Democratic Joseph R. Biden Jr.
Kamala D. Harris
2,608,400 57.34% +1.88%
Republican Donald Trump
Mike Pence
1,883,313 41.40% +0.05%
Libertarian Jo Jorgensen
Spike Cohen
31,677 0.70% −1.17%
Green Howie Hawkins
Angela Walker
14,202 0.31% −0.67%
Unity Bill Hammons
Eric Bodenstab
3,255 0.07% ±0.00%
Constitution Don Blankenship
William Mohr
2,954 0.06% −0.10%
Socialism and Liberation Gloria La Riva
Sunil Freeman
2,928 0.06% +0.02%
Alliance Rocky De La Fuente
Darcy Richardson
2,728 0.06% +0.01%
Total votes 4,549,353 100.00%

Results by county edit

County Joe Biden
Democratic
Donald Trump
Republican
Various candidates
Other parties
Margin Total votes cast
# % # % # % # %
Atlantic 73,808 52.71% 64,438 46.02% 1,785 1.27% 9,370 6.69% 140,031
Bergen 285,967 57.44% 204,417 41.06% 7,454 1.50% 81,550 16.38% 497,838
Burlington 154,595 58.86% 103,345 39.35% 4,710 1.79% 51,250 19.51% 262,650
Camden 175,065 65.91% 86,207 32.46% 4,327 1.63% 88,858 33.45% 265,599
Cape May 23,941 41.33% 33,158 57.24% 834 1.43% -9,217 -15.91% 57,933
Cumberland 32,742 52.32% 28,952 46.27% 881 1.41% 3,790 6.05% 62,575
Essex 266,820 77.07% 75,475 21.80% 3,892 1.13% 191,345 55.27% 346,187
Gloucester 86,702 49.99% 83,340 48.05% 3,411 1.96% 3,362 1.94% 173,453
Hudson 181,452 72.45% 65,698 26.23% 3,308 1.32% 115,754 46.22% 250,458
Hunterdon 39,457 46.60% 43,153 50.96% 2,063 2.44% -3,696 -4.36% 84,673
Mercer 122,532 69.14% 51,641 29.14% 3,050 1.72% 70,891 40.00% 177,223
Middlesex 226,250 60.22% 143,467 38.19% 5,975 1.59% 82,783 22.03% 375,692
Monmouth 181,291 47.91% 191,808 50.69% 5,291 1.40% -10,517 -2.78% 378,390
Morris 153,881 51.14% 141,134 46.90% 5,902 1.96% 12,747 4.24% 300,917
Ocean 119,456 34.85% 217,740 63.53% 5,550 1.62% -98,274 -28.68% 342,746
Passaic 129,097 57.55% 92,009 41.02% 3,224 1.43% 37,088 16.53% 224,330
Salem 14,479 42.53% 18,827 55.31% 736 2.16% -4,348 -12.78% 34,042
Somerset 111,173 59.49% 71,996 38.52% 3,722 1.99% 39,177 20.97% 186,891
Sussex 34,481 39.03% 51,701 58.52% 2,173 2.45% -17,220 -19.49% 88,355
Union 170,310 67.01% 80,038 31.49% 3,794 1.50% 90,272 35.52% 254,142
Warren 24,901 40.78% 34,769 56.95% 1,387 2.27% -9,868 -16.17% 61,057
Totals 2,608,400 57.14% 1,883,313 41.25% 73,469 1.61% 725,087 15.89% 4,565,182
 
 
 
Counties that flipped from Republican to Democratic edit

By congressional district edit

Biden won 9 out of the 12 congressional districts in New Jersey. Trump won 3, including one that elected a Democrat.[38]

District Biden Trump Representative
1st 62.1% 36.6% Donald Norcross
2nd 47.9% 50.8% Jeff Van Drew
3rd 49.2% 49.4% Andy Kim
4th 44.1% 54.6% Chris Smith
5th 51.9% 46.7% Josh Gottheimer
6th 57.2% 41.5% Frank Pallone Jr.
7th 54.2% 44.3% Tom Malinowski
8th 71.8% 27.2% Albio Sires
9th 62.2% 36.8% Bill Pascrell
10th 84.2% 15.0% Donald Payne Jr.
11th 52.7% 46.0% Mikie Sherrill
12th 67.3% 31.4% Bonnie Watson Coleman

[39]

Analysis edit

As the polls predicted, Joe Biden won New Jersey by a wide margin. Biden ran up huge margins in the state's major cities such as Newark, Jersey City, Paterson, Trenton, Atlantic City, Camden, and several others. In addition to carrying all the counties that Clinton won in 2016, Biden flipped Gloucester County, which was a reliably blue county before Trump won it in 2016. Biden also won Morris County, which had never voted Democratic in any presidential race since 1964; Senator Cory Booker concurrently won Morris County in his reelection victory as well. In neighboring Hunterdon County, Biden came within 4.4 points of victory despite the county being a reliably Republican stronghold as well. Biden recorded the highest share of the vote in Sussex and Hunterdon Counties for a Democrat since 1964, the last time either county voted Democratic.

Trump, meanwhile, performed strongly in Ocean County, which is reliably red. He also did well in Sussex and Warren counties, two northern rural counties that have not voted Democratic since 1964. Salem County, which Trump flipped in 2016, remained in his column and he also narrowly held on to Monmouth County, which hasn't voted Democratic since 2000 but where the margins have always been somewhat close. He also improved in the urban counties of Essex and Hudson, due to noticeable improvements in several of those counties' most populated cities, such as Jersey City and Newark.[40]

Ultimately, Trump carried 255 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities, less than the 307 he carried in 2016, with Biden carrying the other 310. Compared to their 2016 margins, 471 of New Jersey's 565 municipalities swung towards Biden in this election. However, Trump was able to improve significantly upon his 2016 margins in many of New Jersey's most heavily populated cities, which kept the statewide margin within 2% of the 2016 results. For example, in New Jersey's most populated city, Newark, Trump nearly doubled his 2016 share of the vote, going from 6.63% to 12.25% of the vote.[40] This was the best Republican performance in Newark since George W. Bush received 12.8% of the vote in 2004.[41] Other populated cities, such as Paterson and Camden, posted similarly notable shifts towards the GOP, with much of the rest of the state shifting towards the Democrats instead.

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ This primary was conducted under a system in which each person could cast a vote for more than one candidate, therefore percentages reflect the percentage of voters that approved of each candidate, and as a result do not add up to 100%.
  2. ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
  3. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  4. ^ Overlapping sample with the previous SurveyMonkey/Axios poll, but more information available regarding sample size
  5. ^ "Someone else" with 1%
  6. ^ "Neither" with 1%; "Someone else" with 0%
  7. ^ a b "Another candidate or unsure" with 10%
  8. ^ "Refused" with 4%; "Someone else" with 1%
  9. ^ With voters who lean towards a given candidate
  10. ^ "Someone else" with 2%
  11. ^ "Another candidate or unsure" with 15%
  12. ^ "For another candidate" with 7%
  13. ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 1%
  14. ^ "Neither" with 4%; "someone else" with 1%

References edit

  1. ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Archived from the original on August 2, 2018. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  2. ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
  3. ^ "New Jersey Voter Surveys: How Different Groups Voted". The New York Times. November 3, 2020. ISSN 0362-4331. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  4. ^ Mehta, Dhrumil (September 18, 2020). "How Asian Americans Are Thinking About The 2020 Election". FiveThirtyEight. Retrieved November 9, 2020.
  5. ^ "QuickFacts New Jersey". United States Census Bureau. Retrieved May 21, 2021.
  6. ^ Homan, Timothy R. (November 11, 2020). "On The Trail: Biden wins America's economic engines". The Hill. Retrieved November 15, 2020.
  7. ^ "Salem County General Election Results: Presidential (2016)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  8. ^ "General Election Results Salem County: Presidential (2012)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  9. ^ "General Election Presidential Results: Salem County (2008)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  10. ^ "Salem County Presidential Results (2004)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  11. ^ "Official General Election Results: President (2000)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 18, 2020.
  12. ^ [7][8][9][10][11]
  13. ^ "General Election Results: President (1992)" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 20, 2020.
  14. ^ "These 53 N.J. Towns flipped from Trump to Biden in 2020". MSN.
  15. ^ "New Jersey moves primary elections to July". The Hill. April 8, 2020.
  16. ^ "N.J.'s July 7 primary election will be mostly vote-by-mail during coronavirus pandemic, Murphy says". May 15, 2020.
  17. ^ "Trump, Biden (no surprise) prevail in N.J.'s presidential primary". NJ.com. July 7, 2020.
  18. ^ "New Jersey Republican Delegation 2020". The Green Papers. Retrieved June 23, 2020.
  19. ^ "Official Election Results -AMENDED-: Candidates for Democratic District Delegates/Alternate District Delegates For- July 7, 2020- PRIMARY ELECTION" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved September 20, 2020.
  20. ^ "2020 Presidential Primaries, Caucuses, and Conventions: New Jersey Democrat". The Green Papers. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  21. ^ "2020 Convention - [Part 1] Public Office Voting Results". Twitter. Retrieved May 9, 2020.
  22. ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  23. ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  24. ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved May 21, 2019.
  25. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
  26. ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
  27. ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions Archived April 23, 2020, at the Wayback Machine, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020.
  28. ^ David Chalian; Terence Burlij (June 11, 2020). "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved June 16, 2020.
  29. ^ "Forecasting the US elections". The Economist. Retrieved July 7, 2020.
  30. ^ "2020 Election Battleground Tracker". CBS News. July 12, 2020. Retrieved July 13, 2020.
  31. ^ "2020 Presidential Election Interactive Map". 270 to Win.
  32. ^ "ABC News Race Ratings". CBS News. July 24, 2020. Retrieved July 24, 2020.
  33. ^ "Final NPR Electoral Map: Biden Has The Edge, But Trump Retains Narrow Path". NPR. Retrieved October 31, 2020.
  34. ^ "Biden dominates the electoral map, but here's how the race could tighten". NBC News. August 6, 2020. Retrieved August 6, 2020.
  35. ^ "2020 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. August 12, 2020. Retrieved August 14, 2020.
  36. ^ "2020 Battleground Power Rankings". Fox News. Retrieved November 2, 2020.
  37. ^ "Official General Election Results: U.S. President" (PDF). New Jersey Division of Elections. Retrieved December 7, 2020.
  38. ^ "Daily Kos Elections' presidential results by congressional district for 2020, 2016, and 2012". Daily Kos. Retrieved February 10, 2021.
  39. ^ "New Jersey Department of State - Division of Elections".
  40. ^ a b "NJ DOS - Division of Elections - 2020 Election Information".
  41. ^ "2004 Presidential Election - Essex County" (PDF).
  42. ^ "Covered Areas for Voting Rights Bilingual Election Materials—2015", Voting Rights Act Amendments of 2006, Determinations Under Section 203, Federal Register, retrieved October 13, 2020, A Notice by the Census Bureau on 12/05/2016

Further reading edit

External links edit