The 2022 United States Senate election in Vermont was held on November 8, 2022, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Vermont. It was held concurrently with U.S. Senate elections in other states, along with elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections across the country. The incumbent senator, Democrat Patrick Leahy, announced on November 15, 2021, that he would not seek re-election to a ninth term,[1] leaving the seat open for the first time since 1974.
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Welch: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% 70-80% 80-90% >90% Malloy: 40-50% 50-60% 60-70% Tie: 40–50% 40–50% No votes | |||||||||||||||||
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Primary elections were held on August 9, 2022, with Peter Welch, the incumbent U.S. Representative from the state's at-large congressional district, winning the Democratic primary, while U.S. Army veteran Gerald Malloy won the Republican primary. In heavily Democratic Vermont, the Democratic nomination is tantamount to election, and on election day, Welch defeated Malloy in a landslide. He won all but one county in the state, garnering 68.5% of the vote statewide to Malloy's 28.0%. The race was called for Welch shortly after polls closed.[2]
At 75 years old, Welch became the oldest person ever elected to a first term in the Senate, a record previously held by Frederick H. Gillett in 1924.[3] He also became only the second Democrat ever elected to the Senate from Vermont, after Leahy.[2]
Following Leahy's announcement that he would retire, speculation arose as to which Democrats could run to succeed him; Newsweek cited two of the leading possible contenders for the nomination as Peter Welch, who had served as U.S. Representative for Vermont's at-large congressional district since 2006, and President pro tempore of the Vermont Senate Becca Balint.[4] Also considering a run was state representative Tanya Vyhovsky.[5] However, candidates were reluctant to enter the race due to speculation that Bernie Sanders, Vermont's popular junior senator, would endorse Welch for the open seat.[5] It was widely considered that an endorsement from Sanders would essentially lock up the race for Welch.[5] While both men were both considered to be associated with the left-wing of the Democratic Party, Welch was noted by The Intercept to be rather more moderate than Sanders was, especially when compared to Vyhovsky.[5]
Welch announced his campaign for the seat on November 22, 2021, pledging in a campaign video to support Medicare for All and the Green New Deal; he was immediately endorsed by Sanders.[6][7]
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Isaac Evans-Frantz |
Niki Thran |
Peter Welch |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 352 (LV) | ± 5.2% | 6% | 1% | 82% | 0% | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Peter Welch | 86,603 | 87.01% | |
Democratic | Isaac Evans-Frantz | 7,230 | 7.26% | |
Democratic | Niki Thran | 5,104 | 5.13% | |
Write-in | 599 | 0.60% | ||
Total votes | 99,536 | 100.0% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gerald Malloy |
Myers Mermel |
Christina Nolan |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | July 21–25, 2022 | 196 (LV) | ± 7.0% | 30% | 3% | 24% | 43% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Gerald Malloy | 12,169 | 42.39% | |
Republican | Christina Nolan | 10,825 | 37.70% | |
Republican | Myers Mermel | 5,227 | 18.21% | |
Write-in | 489 | 1.70% | ||
Total votes | 28,710 | 100.0% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Progressive | Martha Abbott | 473 | 86.63% | |
Write-in | 73 | 13.37% | ||
Total votes | 546 | 100.0% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[58] | Solid D | November 19, 2021 |
Inside Elections[59] | Solid D | January 7, 2022 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[60] | Safe D | November 3, 2021 |
Politico[61] | Solid D | August 12, 2022 |
RCP[62] | Safe D | November 1, 2022 |
Fox News[63] | Solid D | May 12, 2022 |
DDHQ[64] | Solid D | July 20, 2022 |
538[65] | Solid D | June 30, 2022 |
The Economist[66] | Safe D | September 7, 2022 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Gerald Malloy (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Data for Progress (D) | October 21–26, 2022 | 1,039 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 63% | 32% | – | 4% |
University of New Hampshire | September 29 – October 3, 2022 | 765 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 62% | 28% | 2%[c] | 8% |
The Trafalgar Group (R) | September 3–7, 2022 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 50% | 43% | 2% | 5% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Peter Welch (D) |
Christina Nolan (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
University of New Hampshire | April 14–18, 2022 | 583 (LV) | ± 4.1% | 62% | 27% | 1% | 10% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Patrick Leahy (D) |
Phil Scott (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
VPR/Vermont PBS | September 3–15, 2020 | 582 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 15% |
No. | Date | Host | Moderator | Link | Democratic | Republican |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Key: P Participant A Absent N Non-invitee I Invitee W Withdrawn |
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Peter Welch | Gerard Malloy | |||||
1 | Oct. 13, 2022 | Vermont Public Radio | Mikaela Lefrak | Youtube | P | P |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Peter Welch | 196,575 | 68.47% | +7.21% | |
Republican | Gerald Malloy | 80,468 | 28.03% | -5.00% | |
Independent | Dawn Marie Ellis | 2,752 | 0.96% | N/A | |
Green Mountain | Natasha Diamondstone-Kohout | 1,574 | 0.55% | N/A | |
Independent | Kerry Patrick Raheb | 1,532 | 0.53% | N/A | |
Independent | Mark Coester | 1,273 | 0.44% | N/A | |
Independent | Stephen Duke | 1,209 | 0.42% | N/A | |
Independent | Cris Ericson | 1,105 | 0.38% | N/A | |
Write-in | 612 | 0.21% | +0.11% | ||
Total votes | 287,100 | 100% | N/A | ||
Democratic hold |