The 2020 United States Senate election in Iowa was held on November 3, 2020, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Iowa, concurrently with the 2020 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries were held on June 2.[1]
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Ernst: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Greenfield: 40–50% 50–60% 60–70% 70–80% 80–90% >90% Tie: 40–50% | |||||||||||||||||
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Most experts and pollsters considered this race and the concurrent presidential race as a tossup due to incumbent president Donald Trump's low approval ratings and Ernst's own popularity dropping in polls, partly due to a viral moment in a debate where she did not know the price of corn.[2] Despite this, Ernst was reelected by a larger-than-expected 6.6 points, while Trump simultaneously won the state with a similarly unexpected margin of victory. Ernst carried an overwhelming majority of the state's counties including many rural ones, while Greenfield carried only eight counties: Polk, Linn, Scott, Johnson, Black Hawk, Story, Cerro Gordo and Jefferson.[3]
Despite Ernst's win, the election marked the worst Republican performance in the Class II seat since 1978, and the best Democratic performance since Tom Harkin's landslide victory in 2008. It is also the closest election since 1996.
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 226,589 | 98.64% | |
Republican | Write-In | 3,132 | 1.36% | |
Total votes | 229,721 | 100.00% |
On June 2, 2020, Theresa Greenfield won the Democratic primary with 47.71% of the vote, defeating three other major candidates, including Michael Franken, a retired U.S. Navy admiral and former aide to U.S. Senator Ted Kennedy.[11][12][13][14][15]
Host
network |
Date | Link(s) | Participants | |||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Theresa
Greenfield |
Michael
T. Franken |
Kimberly
Graham |
Eddie
Mauro | |||
Iowa PBS | May 18, 2020 | [38] | Present | Present | Present | Present |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Michael Franken |
Kimberly Graham |
Theresa Greenfield |
Eddie Mauro |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | May 5–6, 2020 | 849 (V) | – | 12% | 4% | 43% | 4% | 36% |
Emerson College | October 13–16, 2019 | 317 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 6% | 4% | 11% | 6% | 74% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 132,001 | 47.71% | |
Democratic | Michael T. Franken | 68,851 | 24.88% | |
Democratic | Kimberly Graham | 41,554 | 15.02% | |
Democratic | Eddie Mauro | 30,400 | 10.99% | |
Democratic | Cal Woods (withdrawn) | 3,372 | 1.21% | |
Democratic | Write-In | 514 | 0.19% | |
Total votes | 276,692 | 100.00% |
Major media described the campaign as one of the most likely to decide control of the Senate after the 2020 election.[58][59] Polls conducted after the primary showed a close contest between Greenfield and Ernst, with neither candidate leading by more than 4 points.[60][61][62][63]
Through June 2020, Greenfield had raised $11.5 million, compared to $14.6 million for Ernst but by September, Greenfield had pulled ahead, raising $40.0 million compared to $21.6 million for Ernst.[64][65][66] The race was expected to be the most expensive in the state's history,[67] and the second most expensive Senate race in the United States, after the 2020 United States Senate election in North Carolina, where Cal Cunningham challenged Thom Tillis.[68]
Host | Date & time | Link(s) | Participants | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Joni Ernst (R) | Theresa Greenfield (D) | |||
Iowa Press Debates | September 28, 2020 | [69] | Present | Present |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[70] | Tossup | October 29, 2020 |
Inside Elections[71] | Tossup | October 28, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[72] | Lean R | November 2, 2020 |
Politico[73] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Daily Kos[74] | Tossup | October 30, 2020 |
RCP[75] | Tossup | October 23, 2020 |
DDHQ[76] | Tossup | November 3, 2020 |
538[77] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Economist[78] | Tossup | November 2, 2020 |
Theresa Greenfield vs. Joni Ernst | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Theresa Greenfield | Joni Ernst | Other/Undecided[b] | Margin |
Real Clear Politics | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 45.8% | 47.2% | 7.0% | Ernst +1.4 |
270 to Win | November 2, 2020 | November 3, 2020 | 46.6% |
47.0% |
6.4% | Ernst +0.4 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Theresa Greenfield (D) |
Other/ Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | November 1–2, 2020 | 871 (V) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
Change Research | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 4%[c] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 29 – November 1, 2020 | 853 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 50% | 2%[d] |
Data for Progress | October 27 – November 1, 2020 | 951 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 45% | 49% | 6%[e] |
Emerson College | October 29–31, 2020 | 604 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 48%[f] | 51% | 2%[g] |
InsiderAdvantage (R) Archived November 1, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] | October 30, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 45% | 4%[h] |
Selzer & Co./Des Moines Register | October 26–29, 2020 | 814 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 46% | 42% | 11%[i] |
Quinnipiac University | October 23–27, 2020 | 1,225 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 46% | 1%[j] |
RABA Research | October 21–24, 2020 | 693 (LV) | ± 4% | 45% | 51% | – |
Emerson College | October 19–21, 2020 | 435 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 51%[f] | 46% | 3%[k] |
RMG Research Archived October 31, 2020, at the Wayback Machine | October 15–21, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43%[l] | 46% | 10%[m] |
41%[n] | 48% | 10%[m] | ||||
45%[o] | 45% | 10%[m] | ||||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | October 18–20, 2020 | 753 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 44% | 12%[p] |
Insider Advantage (R) Archived October 21, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[A] | October 18–19, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 48% | 8%[q] |
Monmouth University | October 15–19, 2020 | 501 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 47% | 47% | 5%[r] |
501 (LV)[s] | 47% | 49% | – | |||
501 (LV)[t] | 45% | 51% | – | |||
Data for Progress (D) | October 8–11, 2020 | 822 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 47% | 10%[u] |
YouGov/CBS | October 6–9, 2020 | 1,022 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 43% | 47% | 10%[v] |
Opinion Insight (R)[B] | October 5–8, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 47%[f] | 45% | 8%[w] |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | October 3–6, 2020 | 756 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 46% | 49% | 6%[x] |
Quinnipiac University | October 1–5, 2020 | 1,205 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 50% | 5%[j] |
Data for Progress (D) | September 23–28, 2020 | 743 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 42%[l] | 44% | 14%[y] |
45%[z] | 46% | 9%[aa] | ||||
Hart Research Associates (D)[C] | September 24–27, 2020 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | – |
RABA Research | September 23–26, 2020 | 780 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 51% | – |
Monmouth University | September 18–22, 2020 | 402 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 5%[ab] |
402 (LV)[s] | 46% | 49% | 5%[ac] | |||
402 (LV)[t] | 47% | 48% | 5%[ac] | |||
Siena College/NYT Upshot | September 16–22, 2020 | 501 (LV) | ± 4.99% | 40% | 42% | 19%[ad] |
Selzer/Des Moines Register | September 14–17, 2020 | 658 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 45% | 12%[ae] |
Fabrizio Ward/Hart Research Associates[D] | August 30 – September 5, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 45% | 5%[af] |
Opinion Insight (R)[B] | August 30 – September 2, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.46% | 49%[f] | 43% | 7%[ag] |
Public Policy Polling | August 13–14, 2020 | 729 (V) | ± 4.1% | 45% | 48% | 8%[ah] |
Monmouth University | July 30 – August 3, 2020 | 401 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 6%[ai] |
401 (LV)[s] | 48% | 47% | 6%[ai] | |||
401 (LV)[t] | 48% | 47% | 5%[aj] | |||
Data for Progress | July 24 – August 2, 2020 | 1,101 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 43% | 45% | 11%[ak] |
RMG Research | July 27–30, 2020 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 36% | 40% | 24%[al] |
Spry Strategies (R)[E] | July 11–16, 2020 | 701 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 43% | 45% | 12%[am] |
GQR Research (D)[F] | June 23–28, 2020 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
Selzer/Des Moines Register | June 7–10, 2020 | 674 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
Civiqs/Daily Kos | June 6–8, 2020 | 865 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 45% | 48% | 6% |
Public Policy Polling (D) Archived November 13, 2020, at the Wayback Machine[G] | June 3–4, 2020 | 963 (V) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
Public Policy Polling | April 30 – May 1, 2020 | 1,222 (V) | ± 2.8% | 43% | 42% | 14% |
Public Policy Polling (D)[F] | December 13–15, 2019 | 944 (V) | ± 3.4% | 47% | 41% | 12% |
Emerson College | October 13–16, 2019 | 888 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 40% | 14% |
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 56% | 34% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Eddie Mauro (D) |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
RABA Research/Eddie Mauro[H] | May 7–9, 2020 | 632 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 42% | 42% | – |
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 58%[l] | 33% | – |
49%[an] | 44% | – |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Public Policy Polling | April 29–30, 2019 | 780 (V) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 44% | – |
Public Policy Polling (D)[I] | June 30 – July 1, 2017 | 784 (V) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 41% | 12% |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Joni Ernst (R) |
Generic Opponent |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Des Moines Register/Selzer & Co. | March 2–5, 2020 | 667 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 41% | 31% | 3%[ao] | 26%[ap] |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[a] |
Margin of error |
Generic Republican |
Generic Democrat |
Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Lake Research Partners (D)[H] | April 24–29, 2019 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | – |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Joni Ernst (incumbent) | 864,997 | 51.74% | -0.36% | |
Democratic | Theresa Greenfield | 754,859 | 45.15% | +1.39% | |
Libertarian | Rick Stewart | 36,961 | 2.21% | +1.48% | |
Independent | Suzanne Herzog | 13,800 | 0.83% | N/A | |
Write-in | 1,211 | 0.07% | -0.03% | ||
Total votes | 1,671,828 | 100.0% | |||
Republican hold |
By county
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By congressional district
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And former state Sen. Rita Hart, the 2018 Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor, is a potential candidate, according to multiple Iowa Democrats, but she has not discussed a campaign publicly.