The 2024 United States Senate election in Virginia will be held on November 5, 2024, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of Virginia. Incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine is running for re-election to a third term in office. Kaine was re-elected with 57.0% of the vote in 2018. Primary elections will take place on June 18, 2024.[1]
| |||||||||||
| |||||||||||
|
Virginia is considered to be a moderately blue state at the federal level, with Joe Biden carrying Virginia by about 10 percentage points in the 2020 presidential election. Democrats control both U.S. Senate seats, a majority in its U.S. representative congressional delegation, and both houses of the Virginia General Assembly. However, Republicans flipped all three statewide constitutional offices in the 2021 elections.[2][3][4]
Kaine was first elected in 2012 by 6 points, defeating former U.S. Senator George Allen, and won re-election in 2018 by 16 points.[5][6]
This race is considered to be clearly favoring Kaine as he is popular amongst Virginian voters and typically over-performs other down-ballot candidates.[7]
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Tim Kaine (D) | $10,498,932 | $5,276,107 | $7,742,487 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[21] |
Campaign finance reports as of December 31, 2023 | |||
---|---|---|---|
Candidate | Raised | Spent | Cash on hand |
Hung Cao (R) | $1,224,911 | $789,111 | $528,280 |
Johnathan Emord (R) | $727,297[a] | $703,320 | $23,977 |
Eddie Garcia (R) | $248,608 | $235,719 | $12,889 |
Gwen Hickman (R)[b] | $23,710 | $16,666 | $7,043 |
Kimberly Lowe (R) | $32,436 | $32,436 | $0 |
Scott Parkinson (R) | $661,244 | $230,368 | $430,876 |
Chuck Smith (R) | $409,513 | $359,249 | $50,264 |
Ron Vitiello (R) | $406,347[c] | $314,605 | $91,741 |
Source: Federal Election Commission[21] |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | |
---|---|---|---|---|
Republican | Hung Cao | |||
Republican | Jonathan Emord | |||
Republican | Eddie Garcia | |||
Republican | Scott Parkinson | |||
Republican | Chuck Smith | |||
Total votes | 100.00% |
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[35] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Elections Daily[36] | Likely D | May 4, 2023 |
Inside Elections[37] | Solid D | November 9, 2023 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[38] | Safe D | November 9, 2023 |
CNalysis[39] | Solid D | November 21, 2023 |
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[d] |
Margin of error |
Tim Kaine (D) |
Glenn Youngkin (R) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia Commonwealth University | July 14-25, 2023 | 804 (A) | ± 5.46% | 47% | 42% | 3%[e] | 7% |
University of Mary Washington | September 6–12, 2022 | 1,000 (A) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 10%[f] | 10% |
Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Democratic | Tim Kaine (incumbent) | ||||
Republican | TBD | ||||
Total votes | 100.00% |