The seat has been relative to others a marginal seat since 2001 as well as a swing seat as its winner's majority has not exceeded 8% of the vote since the 14.3% majority won in that year. The seat has changed political allegiance twice since that year.
This seat is the residential quarter of Wales' capital, over half of northern Cardiff consists of owner-occupied housing, with a higher number of a middle class population than other sections. Historically it has mainly elected Conservative MPs, but with new housing development Welsh Labour has overturned the nominal majority more recently, turning the seat into a national target swing-constituency. By 2004, the Conservatives held a majority of councillors within the district (13, against five Liberal Democrats, three independents and no Labour), but in the following 2005 general election Welsh Labour's Julie Morgan retained the seat but with a reduced majority.
BBC News political editor Nick Robinson profiled the constituency as part of the BBC's build-up to the 2010 general election:[4] saying:
The Tories are hopeful of winning the seat, having topped the Euro poll not just here but in Wales as a whole. They have 13 councillors in this constituency as against Labour's none and the Lib Dems' five – even though in Cardiff as a whole, the Lib Dems control the city council. Labour hopes depend on stressing the independence and hard work of the local MP – Julie (wife of Rhodri) Morgan – and persuading those Lib Dems not to switch to the Tories.
Morgan stood again for Welsh Labour in 2010, whilst the Conservatives chose Jonathan Evans MEP, who had previously been the MP for Brecon and Radnor. Evans won by 194 votes.
In 2015, Labour attempted to take the seat back but new candidate, Craig Williams, took it with a majority of 2,137. Many had expected it to be very close run again. [who?] Labour retook the seat in 2017 on a 6.1% swing, producing a majority of 4,174; this was the first time in the seat's history it had voted for a Labour candidate in an election they did not win and the first time it elected an MP who is not a member of the largest party in the House of Commons since October 1974. In 2019, the seat bucked the trend by swinging to Labour despite their heavy defeat nationally.
Boundariesedit
Map of current boundaries
1950–1974: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Gabalfa, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.
1974–1983: The County Borough of Cardiff wards of Cathays, Central, Penylan, and Plasnewydd.
2010–2024: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais.
2024-Present: The Cardiff electoral divisions of Gabalfa, Heath, Lisvane, Llandaff North, Llanishen, Pontprennau and Old St Mellons, Rhiwbina, and Whitchurch and Tongwynlais, along with the addition of Taffs Well (formerly in Pontypridd)
Cardiff City Centre was in this constituency from its creation in 1950 until 1983, since when it has been in Cardiff Central.
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^"Beyond 20/20 WDS – Table view". 2011 Electorate Figures. StatsWales. 1 December 2010. Archived from the original on 3 October 2011. Retrieved 13 March 2011.
^2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies - The 2023 Review of Parliamentary Constituencies in Wales(PDF). Boundary Commission for Wales. 28 June 2023.
^"BBC - Nick Robinson's Newslog: Taking The Pulse: Cardiff". www.bbc.co.uk.
^Leigh Rayment's Historical List of MPs – Constituencies beginning with "C" (part 2)
^ abcdefgCraig, F. W. S. (1971). British parliamentary election results 1950-1970 (1 ed.). Chichester: Political Reference Publications. ISBN 9780900178023. Page 554
^"Politics Resources". Election February 1974. Politics Resources. 28 February 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
^"Politics Resources". Election October 1974. Politics Resources. 10 October 1974. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
^"Politics Resources". Election 1979. Politics Resources. 3 May 1979. Archived from the original on 11 August 2011. Retrieved 2 February 2021.
^"Election Data 1983". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1987". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Election Data 1992". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Politics Resources". Election 1992. Politics Resources. 9 April 1992. Archived from the original on 24 July 2011. Retrieved 6 December 2010.
^"Election Data 1997". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"BBC NEWS>VOTE 2001>Results and Constituencies>Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 1 May 1997. Retrieved 12 January 2011.
^"Election Data 2001". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"BBC NEWS > Cardiff North". Vote 2001. BBC News. 7 June 2001. Retrieved 22 January 2011.
^"Election Data 2005". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 15 October 2011. Retrieved 18 October 2015.
^"Cardiff North parliamentary constituency - Election 2005" – via www.bbc.co.uk.
^"Election Data 2010". Electoral Calculus. Archived from the original on 26 July 2013. Retrieved 17 October 2015.
^Cardiff North Archived 9 June 2011 at the Wayback Machine Cardiff County Council – candidates Cardiff North