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Next Australian federal election

Summary

Next Australian federal election
← 2019
On or before 21 May 2022 (half-Senate)

On or before 3 September 2022
(House of Representatives)

All 151 seats in the House of Representatives
76 seats are needed for a majority
40 (of the 76) seats in the Senate
Opinion polls
  Scott Morrison Anthony Albanese.jpg Adam Bandt portrait (2020) (cropped).jpg
Leader Scott Morrison Anthony Albanese Adam Bandt
Party Liberal/National coalition Labor Greens
Leader since 24 August 2018 (2018-08-24) 30 May 2019 (2019-05-30) 4 February 2020 (2020-02-04)
Leader's seat Cook (NSW) Grayndler (NSW) Melbourne (Vic.)
Last election 77 seats, 41.44% 68 seats, 33.34% 1 seat, 10.40%
Current seats 77 seats 68 seats 1 seat
Seats needed Steady Increase8 Increase75
2019 TPP 51.53% 48.47%
  Robbie Katter
Leader Robbie Katter No federal leader
Party Katter's Australian Centre Alliance
Leader since 3 February 2020 (2020-02-03)
Leader's seat None[a]
Last election 1 seat, 0.49% 1 seat, 0.33%
Current seats 1 seat 1 seat
Seats needed Increase75 Increase75
Incumbent Prime Minister

Scott Morrison
Liberal/National coalition



The next Australian federal election will be held in or before 2022 to elect members of the 47th Parliament of Australia.

All 151 seats in the lower house, the House of Representatives, and 40 or 76 (depending on whether a double dissolution is called) of the 76 seats in the upper house, the Senate, will be up for election.

The incumbent Liberal/National Coalition Government, currently led by Prime Minister Scott Morrison, will be seeking a fourth three-year term. The Labor Opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese, and several minor parties will also contest the election, with the Greens being the third largest party by vote.

Previous election

Result

Redistribution

The Australian Electoral Commission is required, one year after the first sitting day for a new House of Representatives, to determine the number of members to which each State and Territory is entitled. If the number in any state changes, a redistribution will be required in those states. A redistribution will be postponed if it would begin within one year of the expiration of the House of Representatives.

Demographic statistics for December 2019 released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on 18 June 2020 were used to calculate the determination. The population counts confirmed that the number of seats in the House of Representatives was to return to 150, with Victoria gaining a seat (39) and Western Australia (15) and the Northern Territory (1) losing a seat each.[1][2]

June 2020 determination (set aside)
State Seats Change
New South Wales 47 Steady
Victoria 39 Increase 1
Queensland 30 Steady
Western Australia 15 Decrease 1
South Australia 10 Steady
Tasmania 5 Steady
Australian Capital Territory 3 Steady
Northern Territory 1 Decrease 1
Total 150 Decrease 1

The abolition of the Northern Territory's second seat in the determination was controversial. Two Labor Party senators put forward a private senator's bill which would guarantee the territory a minimum two seats in the House of Representatives, with the bill referred to the Joint Standing Committee on Electoral Matters. In October 2020, deputy prime minister Michael McCormack gave an assurance that the territory would retain its two seats, but the mechanism by which this would take place was not clear.[3]

In July 2020, in his submission to the Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters, election analyst Antony Green suggested using the "harmonic mean method" to calculate the entitlement determination for the territories.[4][5] On 9 December 2020, the Electoral Amendment (Territory Representation) Act was passed by the Parliament and will amend the Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 to use the harmonic mean method to determine the entitlement for territories.[6][7] Under the new method, the Northern Territory will retain two seats at this election.[6] Unlike the earlier private senator's bill, the legislation does not explicitly dictate a minimum number of Northern Territory seats in the House of Representatives, but achieves the same outcome.[8]

December 2020 determination
State Seats Change
New South Wales 47 Steady
Victoria 39 Increase 1
Queensland 30 Steady
Western Australia 15 Decrease 1
South Australia 10 Steady
Tasmania 5 Steady
Australian Capital Territory 3 Steady
Northern Territory 2 Steady
Total 151 Steady

Voter registration

Enrolment of eligible voters is compulsory. Voters must notify the AEC within 8 weeks of a change of address or after turning 18. The electoral rolls are closed for new enrolments or update of details about a week after the issue of writs for election.[9][10]

Election date

The date and type of federal election is determined by the Prime Minister – after a consideration of constitutional requirements, legal requirements, as well as political considerations – who advises the Governor-General to set the process in motion by dissolving the lower or both houses and issuing writs for election. The Constitution of Australia does not require simultaneous elections for the Senate and the House of Representatives, but it has long been preferred that elections for the two houses take place simultaneously. The most recent House-only election took place in 1972, and the most recent Senate-only election took place in 1970. The election day must be a Saturday.[11]

An election for the House of Representatives can be called at any time before the expiration of the three-year term of the House of Representatives[12] or up to ten days thereafter.[13] The term of the House of Representatives starts on the first sitting day of the House following its election, which in the case of the 46th Parliament was 2 July 2019. The Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (CEA) sets certain requirements. Up to 27 days must be allowed for nominations,[14] and the actual election can be set for a maximum of 31 days after close of nominations,[15] resulting in the latest election date for the House of Representatives being after the latest possible date for the next senate election.

The election of senators must take place within one year before the terms expire for half-Senate elections,[16] so that the writs for a half-Senate election cannot be issued earlier than 1 July 2021. Since campaigns are for a minimum of 33 days, the earliest possible date for a simultaneous House/half-Senate election is Saturday, 7 August 2021.[17] The latest that a half-Senate election could be held must allow time for the votes to be counted and the writs to be returned before the newly elected senators take office on 1 July 2022. This took 41 days in 2019, and were returned on the last possible date available given the impending commencement of the new senators. Using this approximate time frame, the last possible date for a half-Senate election to take place is Saturday 21 May 2022.

A double dissolution (a deadlock-breaking provision to dissolve both houses of parliament) cannot take place within six months before the date of the expiry of the House of Representatives.[18] That means that any double dissolution of the 46th Parliament will have to be granted by 1 January 2022. Allowing for the same stages indicated above, the last possible date for a double dissolution election would be in March 2022.[17] This can only occur if a bill that passes the House of Representatives is rejected by the Senate twice, at least three months apart.

Constitutional and legal provisions

The constitutional and legal provisions which impact on the choice of election dates include:[19]

  • Section 12 of the Constitution says: "The Governor of any State may cause writs to be issued for the election of Senators for that State".
  • Section 13 of the Constitution provides that the election of senators shall be held in the period of twelve months before the places become vacant.
  • Section 28 of the Constitution says: "Every House of Representatives shall continue for three years from the first sitting of the House, and no longer, but may be sooner dissolved by the Governor-General."[20] Since the 46th Parliament of Australia opened on 2 July 2019, it will expire on 1 July 2022.
  • Section 32 of the Constitution says: "The writs shall be issued within ten days from the expiry of a House of Representatives or from the proclamation of a dissolution thereof." Ten days after 1 July 2022 is 11 July 2022.
  • Section 156 (1) of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the nomination of the candidates shall not be less than 10 days nor more than 27 days after the date of the writ".[14] Twenty-seven days after 11 July 2022 is 7 August 2022.
  • Section 157 of the CEA says: "The date fixed for the polling shall not be less than 23 days nor more than 31 days after the date of nomination".[15] Thirty-one days after 7 August 2022 is 7 September 2022, a Wednesday.
  • Section 158 of the CEA says: "The day fixed for the polling shall be a Saturday".[21] The Saturday before 7 September 2022 is 3 September 2022. This is therefore the latest possible date for the lower house election.

Candidates

Candidates for either house must be formally nominated with the Electoral Commission. The nomination for a party-endorsed candidate must be signed by the Registered Officer of a party registered under the Electoral Act. Fifty signatures of eligible voters are required for an independent candidate. A candidate can nominate for only one electorate, and must pass a number of qualifications.

A deposit of $2,000 will be required for a candidate for the House of Representatives or the Senate, which is refunded if the candidate is elected or gains at least 4% of the first preference vote.[22][23] Between 10 and 27 days must be allowed after the issue of writs before the close of nominations.[14]

Retiring members

Members of Parliament and Senators who have announced they will not renominate for the upcoming election are as follows:

Labor

Liberal

Nationals

Greens

Election pendulum

GOVERNMENT SEATS
Marginal
Bass Tas Bridget Archer LIB 0.4
Chisholm Vic Gladys Liu LIB 0.6
Wentworth NSW Dave Sharma LIB vs. IND 1.3
Boothby SA Nicolle Flint LIB 1.4
Swan WA Steve Irons LIB 2.7
Braddon Tas Gavin Pearce LIB 3.1
Reid NSW Fiona Martin LIB 3.2
Longman Qld Terry Young LNP 3.3
Higgins Vic Katie Allen LIB 3.9
Leichhardt Qld Warren Entsch LNP 4.2
Robertson NSW Lucy Wicks LIB 4.2
La Trobe Vic Jason Wood LIB 4.5
Casey Vic Tony Smith LIB 4.6
Dickson Qld Peter Dutton LNP 4.6
Deakin Vic Michael Sukkar LIB 4.8
Brisbane Qld Trevor Evans LNP 4.9
Lindsay NSW Melissa McIntosh LIB 5.0
Hasluck WA Ken Wyatt LIB 5.4
Flinders Vic Greg Hunt LIB 5.6
Kooyong Vic Josh Frydenberg LIB vs. GRN 5.6
Stirling WA Vince Connelly LIB 5.6
Fairly safe
Ryan Qld Julian Simmonds LNP 6.0
Banks NSW David Coleman LIB 6.3
Cowper NSW Pat Conaghan NAT vs. IND 6.8
Bennelong NSW John Alexander LIB 6.9
Sturt SA James Stevens LIB 6.9
Bonner SA Ross Vasta LNP 7.4
Monash Vic Russell Broadbent LIB 7.4
Menzies Vic Kevin Andrews LIB 7.5
Pearce WA Christian Porter LIB 7.5
Goldstein Vic Tim Wilson LIB 7.8
Herbert Qld Phillip Thompson LIB 8.4
Petrie Qld Luke Howarth LNP 8.4
Forde Qld Bert Van Manen LNP 8.6
Flynn Qld Ken O'Dowd LNP 8.7
North Sydney NSW Trent Zimmerman LIB 9.3
Page NSW Kevin Hogan NAT 9.4
Hughes NSW Craig Kelly LIB 9.8
Safe
Aston Vic Alan Tudge LIB 10.1
Bowman Qld Andrew Laming LNP 10.2
Farrer NSW Sussan Ley LIB vs. IND 10.1
Wannon Vic Dan Tehan LIB 10.4
Tangney WA Ben Morton LIB 11.5
Canning WA Andrew Hastie LIB 11.6
Moore WA Ian Goodenough LIB 11.7
McPherson Qld Karen Andrews LNP 12.2
Capricornia Qld Michelle Landry LNP 12.4
Fisher Qld Andrew Wallace LNP 12.7
Hume NSW Angus Taylor LIB 13.0
Wide Bay Qld Llew O'Brien LNP 13.1
Mackellar NSW Jason Falinski LIB 13.2
Calare NSW Andrew Gee NAT 13.3
Grey SA Rowan Ramsey LIB 13.3
Fairfax Qld Ted O'Brien LNP 13.4
Fadden Qld Stuart Robert LNP 14.2
Curtin WA Celia Hammond LIB 14.3
New England NSW Barnaby Joyce NAT vs. IND 14.4
Hinkler Qld Keith Pitt LNP 14.5
O'Connor WA Rick Wilson LIB 14.5
Dawson Qld George Christensen LNP 14.6
Forrest WA Nola Marino LIB 14.6
Wright Qld Scott Buchholz LNP 14.6
Durack WA Melissa Price LIB 14.8
Lyne NSW David Gillespie NAT 15.2
Moncrieff Qld Angie Bell LNP 15.4
Berowra NSW Julian Leeser LIB 15.6
Mallee Vic Anne Webster NAT 16.2
Bradfield NSW Paul Fletcher LIB 16.6
Gippsland Vic Darren Chester NAT 16.7
Parkes NSW Mark Coulton NAT 16.9
Groom Qld Garth Hamilton LNP 17.2
Mitchell NSW Alex Hawke LIB 18.6
Barker SA Tony Pasin LIB 18.9
Cook NSW Scott Morrison LIB 19.0
Riverina NSW Michael McCormack NAT 19.5
Nicholls Vic Damian Drum NAT 20.0
Maranoa Qld David Littleproud LNP vs PHON 22.5
OPPOSITION SEATS
Marginal
Macquarie NSW Susan Templeman ALP 0.2
Eden-Monaro NSW Kristy McBain ALP 0.4
Lilley Qld Anika Wells ALP 0.6
Cowan WA Anne Aly ALP 0.8
Corangamite Vic Libby Coker ALP 1.1
Blair Qld Shayne Neumann ALP 1.2
Dobell NSW Emma McBride ALP 1.5
Moreton Qld Graham Perrett ALP 1.9
Gilmore NSW Fiona Phillips ALP 2.6
Dunkley Vic Peta Murphy ALP 2.7
Greenway NSW Michelle Rowland ALP 2.8
Griffith Qld Terri Butler ALP 2.9
Hunter NSW Joel Fitzgibbon ALP vs NAT 3.0
Solomon NT Luke Gosling ALP 3.1
Parramatta NSW Julie Owens ALP 3.5
Richmond NSW Justine Elliot ALP vs NAT 4.1
Shortland NSW Pat Conroy ALP 4.4
Perth WA Patrick Gorman ALP 4.9
Burt WA Matt Keogh ALP 5.0
McEwen Vic Rob Mitchell ALP 5.0
Paterson NSW Meryl Swanson ALP 5.0
Lyons Tas Brian Mitchell ALP 5.2
Lingiari NT Warren Snowdon ALP 5.5
Werriwa NSW Anne Stanley ALP 5.5
Hotham Vic Clare O'Neil ALP 5.9
Fairly safe
Macnamara Vic Josh Burns ALP 6.2
Isaacs Vic Mark Dreyfus ALP 6.4
Oxley Qld Milton Dick ALP 6.4
Rankin Qld Jim Chalmers ALP 6.4
Hindmarsh SA Mark Butler ALP 6.5
McMahon NSW Chris Bowen ALP 6.6
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 8.2
Wills Vic Peter Khalil ALP vs. GRN 8.2
Brand WA Madeleine King ALP 6.7
Fremantle WA Josh Wilson ALP 6.9
Bean ACT David Smith ALP 7.5
Adelaide SA Steve Georganas ALP 8.2
Macarthur NSW Mike Freelander ALP 8.4
Holt Vic Anthony Byrne ALP 8.7
Kingsford Smith NSW Matt Thistlethwaite ALP 8.8
Bendigo Vic Lisa Chesters ALP 9.0
Barton NSW Linda Burney ALP 9.4
Makin SA Tony Zappia ALP 9.7
Safe
Corio Vic Richard Marles ALP 10.3
Fenner ACT Andrew Leigh ALP 10.6
Whitlam NSW Stephen Jones ALP 10.9
Maribyrnong Vic Bill Shorten ALP 11.2
Kingston SA Amanda Rishworth ALP 11.9
Franklin Tas Julie Collins ALP 12.2
Chifley NSW Ed Husic ALP 12.4
Lalor Vic Joanne Ryan ALP 12.4
Cunningham NSW Sharon Bird ALP 13.4
Watson NSW Tony Burke ALP 13.5
Newcastle NSW Sharon Claydon ALP 13.8
Fowler NSW Chris Hayes ALP 14.0
Spence SA Nick Champion ALP 14.1
Bruce Vic Julian Hill ALP 14.2
Fraser Vic Daniel Mulino ALP 14.2
Cooper Vic Ged Kearney ALP vs. GRN 14.6
Blaxland NSW Jason Clare ALP 14.7
Gellibrand Vic Tim Watts ALP 14.8
Gorton Vic Brendan O'Connor ALP 15.4
Grayndler NSW Anthony Albanese ALP vs. GRN 16.3
Canberra ACT Alicia Payne ALP 17.1
Sydney NSW Tanya Plibersek ALP 18.7
Calwell Vic Maria Vamvakinou ALP 18.8
Scullin Vic Andrew Giles ALP 21.7
CROSS BENCH SEATS
Indi Vic Helen Haines IND vs. LIB 1.4
Mayo SA Rebekha Sharkie CA vs. LIB 5.1
Warringah NSW Zali Steggall IND vs. LIB 7.2
Kennedy Qld Bob Katter KAP vs. LNP 13.3
Melbourne Vic Adam Bandt GRN vs. LIB 21.8
Clark Tas Andrew Wilkie IND vs. ALP 22.1


Opinion polling

Two-party-preferred vote.
Primary vote.
Aggregate data of voting intention from all opinion polling since the last election. Local regression trends for each party are shown as solid lines.

See also

Notes

  1. ^ Robbie Katter sits as an MP in the Parliament of Queensland for Traeger.

References

  1. ^ Green, Antony. "ABS Population Statistics Confirm Changes in House Representation". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 18 June 2020.
  2. ^ Determination of membership entitlement to the House of Representatives State Electoral Commission 3 July 2020.
  3. ^ "Support from across political divide saves sprawling jurisdiction from having just one MP". ABC News. 8 October 2020. Retrieved 18 October 2020.
  4. ^ Green, Antony (July 2020). "Fair Representation for the Territories - A Submission to the Joint Standing Committee of Electoral Matters". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 11 December 2020.
  5. ^ Green, Antony (9 June 2020). "2020 Apportionment of Seats: Part 2 – Allocating to the Territories". Antony Green's Election Blog. Retrieved 11 December 2020.
  6. ^ a b "NT to keep two federal House of Representative seats at next election after legislation passes Parliament". ABC News. 9 December 2020.
  7. ^ "'A shame job': Bill to safeguard two federal members for the NT a step closer to reality". www.abc.net.au. 3 December 2020. Retrieved 9 December 2020.
  8. ^ Muller, Damon (2 December 2020). "Electoral Amendment (Territory Representation) Bill 2020". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 11 December 2020.
  9. ^ Commonwealth Electoral Act 1918 (Cth) s. 155
  10. ^ "DOCUMENTS RELATING TO THE CALLING OF THE DOUBLE DISSOLUTION ELECTION FOR 2 JULY 2016" (PDF). Governor-General of the Commonwealth of Australia. 8 May 2016. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 May 2016.
  11. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
  12. ^ Constitution of Australia, s. 28.
  13. ^ Constitution of Australia, s. 32.
  14. ^ a b c "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 156". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
  15. ^ a b "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 157". Austlii.edu.au. Retrieved 19 March 2018.
  16. ^ Constitution of Australia, s. 13
  17. ^ a b Elections Timetable from Parliamentary Library
  18. ^ Section 57 of the Constitution
  19. ^ Lundie, Rob. "Australian elections timetable". Parliament of Australia. Archived from the original on 8 January 2011.
  20. ^ "Commonwealth Of Australia Constitution Act – Section 28". Austlii.edu.au. Archived from the original on 24 April 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2018.
  21. ^ "Commonwealth Electoral Act, s. 158". Austlii.edu.au. Archived from the original on 4 March 2016. Retrieved 2 July 2019.
  22. ^ The Electoral Legislation Amendment (Modernisation and Other Measures) Act 2019, which came into effect on 1 March 2019.
  23. ^ Candidates Handbook, p.6.
  24. ^ Coughlan, Matt (10 December 2020). "NT MP Snowdon to depart at next election". Perth Now. Retrieved 10 December 2020.
  25. ^ Foley, Mike (8 March 2020). "Senate President Scott Ryan calls time on parliamentary career". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 9 March 2020.
  26. ^ Bowe, William (16 January 2021). "Kelly's zeroes". Poll Bludger. Retrieved 17 January 2021.
  27. ^ Curtis, Katina (28 August 2020). "Greens WA senator announces retirement at next election". The Sydney Morning Herald. Retrieved 29 August 2020.