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2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota

Summary

The 2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota was held on November 8, 2022, to elect the U.S. representative from North Dakota's at-large congressional district. The election coincided with other elections to the House of Representatives, elections to the United States Senate and various state and local elections. Incumbent Republican Kelly Armstrong was re-elected with 69.0% of the vote in 2020. His only opponent in the general election was Independent Cara Mund after Democratic nominee Mark Haugen withdrew.

2022 United States House of Representatives election in North Dakota's at-large district
← 2020 November 8, 2022 2024 →
Turnout42.11% Decrease[1]
 
Nominee Kelly Armstrong Cara Mund
Party Republican Independent
Alliance Democratic–NPL
Popular vote 148,399 89,644
Percentage 62.2% 37.6%
Armstrong:      50–60%      60–70%      70–80%      80–90%
Mund:      50–60%      60–70%
U.S. Representative before election

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

Elected U.S. Representative

Kelly Armstrong
Republican

Although Armstrong won by a large margin, his 62.2% showing was his worst since his first election in 2018, and Mund's 37.6% was the best showing for a non-Republican in a North Dakota U.S. House race since 2014.[2] Mund's vote share was at least 10% higher than every 2022 statewide Democratic–NPL candidate in North Dakota and nearly 6% higher than incumbent president Democrat Joe Biden's vote share in the 2020 presidential election.[3] Mund also had the second-best performance of any Independent in the 2022 congressional elections, only surpassed by Evan McMullin in the Utah Senate race.

Republican primary edit

Candidates edit

Declared edit

Endorsements edit

Kelly Armstrong
Federal officials

Results edit

Republican primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Kelly Armstrong (incumbent) 70,424 99.0
Write-in 709 1.0
Total votes 71,133 100.0

Democratic primary edit

Candidates edit

Withdrew after winning primary edit

Endorsements edit

Mark Haugen
Organizations

Results edit

Democratic–NPL primary results
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic–NPL Mark Haugen 21,897 99.7
Write-in 57 0.3
Total votes 21,954 100.0

Aftermath edit

Following the overturning of Roe v. Wade in June 2022, Haugen faced criticism among Democrats for his anti-abortion beliefs. Many within the Democratic–NPL Party preferred independent candidate Cara Mund, who is pro-choice, and urged Haugen to drop out of the race. Haugen ended his campaign in September and the Democratic–NPL Party endorsed Mund shortly after.[9][10]

Independents edit

Declared edit

General election edit

Predictions edit

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[13] Solid R October 5, 2021
Inside Elections[14] Solid R October 11, 2021
Sabato's Crystal Ball[15] Safe R October 5, 2021
Politico[16] Solid R April 5, 2022
RCP[17] Safe R June 9, 2022
Fox News[18] Solid R July 11, 2022
DDHQ[19] Solid R July 20, 2022
538[20] Solid R June 30, 2022

Endorsements edit

Kelly Armstrong (R)
Federal officials
Cara Mund (I)
Organizations

Polling edit

Poll source Date(s)
administered 		Sample
size[a] 		Margin
of error 		Kelly
Armstrong (R) 		Cara
Mund (I) 		Other Undecided
DFM Research (D)[A] September 19–21, 2022 400 (LV) ± 4.9% 44% 40% 2% 14%
Axis Research (R)[B] September 16–19, 2022 402 (LV) ± 5.0% 52% 30% – 18%
1982 Polling (R)[B] September 10–12, 2022 518 (LV) ± 4.3% 48% 31% – 13%
Odney (R)[B] August 18–28, 2022 403 (LV) ± 4.9% 49% 20% 15%[b] 16%

Results edit

2022 North Dakota's at-large congressional district election[21]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Republican Kelly Armstrong (incumbent) 148,399 62.20% –6.76
Independent Cara Mund 89,644 37.57% N/A
Write-in 543 0.23% +0.12
Total votes 238,586 100.00%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Republican to Independent edit

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Independent edit

See also edit

Notes edit

  1. ^ Key:
    A – all adults
    RV – registered voters
    LV – likely voters
    V – unclear
  2. ^ Haugen (D) with 13%
Partisan clients
  1. ^ This poll was sponsored by the North Dakota Democratic–NPL Party
  2. ^ a b c This poll was sponsored by Armstrong's campaign

References edit

  1. ^ "Voter Turnout Details". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.
  2. ^ "2010 - 2018 Election Results".
  3. ^ "Shaw: Cara Mund's strong showing and other election thoughts".
  4. ^ Stanko, Frank (December 20, 2021). "Armstrong, Cramer, Hoeven discuss '21 challenges, hopes for '22". Wahpeton Daily News. Retrieved December 23, 2021.
  5. ^ a b "Endorsement of Congressman Kelly Armstrong". June 12, 2022. Retrieved July 24, 2022.
  6. ^ "Christiansen, Haugen accept Dem-NPL nominations for North Dakota U.S. Senate, House races". KFYR-TV. March 27, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  7. ^ Nelson, TJ (September 4, 2022). "Democrat Mark Haugen Suspends Campaign For U.S. House In N.D." KVRR. Retrieved September 5, 2022.
  8. ^ "North Dakota Democratic-NPL endorses statewide candidates amid recruiting struggles". March 26, 2022. Retrieved March 31, 2022.
  9. ^ "More details released for Haugen decision to suspend campaign". KFYR-TV. September 5, 2022. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  10. ^ "Abortion backers force out pro-life Democratic congressional candidate in N. Dakota". CNA. September 7, 2022. Retrieved December 8, 2022.
  11. ^ "Cara Mund announces bid for Congress". KX NEWS. August 6, 2022. Retrieved August 7, 2022.
  12. ^ a b "Ex-Miss America Mund qualifies as ND congressional candidate". St. Louis Post-Dispatch. September 9, 2022. Archived from the original on September 9, 2022. Retrieved September 9, 2022.
  13. ^ "2022 House Race Ratings". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2021.
  14. ^ "House Ratings". The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 4, 2021.
  15. ^ "2022 House Ratings". Sabato's Crystal Ball. October 5, 2021. Retrieved October 5, 2021.
  16. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Politico. April 5, 2022.
  17. ^ "Battle for the House 2022". RCP. June 9, 2022.
  18. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". Fox News. July 11, 2022. Retrieved July 11, 2022.
  19. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". DDHQ. July 20, 2022. Retrieved July 20, 2022.
  20. ^ "2022 Election Forecast". FiveThirtyEight. June 30, 2022. Retrieved June 30, 2022.
  21. ^ "Official 2022 General Election Results". North Dakota Secretary of State. November 8, 2022. Retrieved November 13, 2022.

External links edit

Official campaign websites
  • Kelly Armstrong (R) for Congress
  • Cara Mund (I) for Congress

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